greg ralls Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 in no way on the maps that just came out on the 00z gfs does this start as snow for nyc and phl...perhaps thats a typo....its rain to snow for those two locations Right, per this run of the GFS, it would be rain to snow - not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 isnt it all mainly over in NYC by 78? not much qpf falls between 78 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Based on twisterdatas snow depth map some snow accumulates before a changeover to rain, and then back to small amount of snow. NJ sees 1-3 snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Based on twisterdatas snow depth map some snow accumulates before a changeover to rain, and then back to small amount of snow. NJ sees 1-3 snow on the backside. Those maps are snow depth maps...they are a poor representation of what's happening. The storm vista storm total snowfall maps have 4-8" everywhere with areas of 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yea....this is a beauty for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at hour 72 the gfs has 2 highs in canada and one in the midwest and then at hr 78 i only see 1 high in canada........is that odd or normal?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Those maps are snow depth maps...they are a poor representation of what's happening. The storm vista storm total snowfall maps have 4-8" everywhere with areas of 8-12". Ok...I was taking into account snow already on the ground and thought itd be a good idea of what fell, but good to know... I think generally if you took all the guidance together, for the big cities of NYC and PHL I could see it beginning as a mix/rain, then over to snow for a 4+ snowstorm...more as you go NW of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 LOL, does DT realize he's contradicting his own forecast by making that false statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What he is talking about? Perhaps he had seen through about hour 66 (850s >0 north of NYC) when he posted that and extrapolated warmer in the next panel? Its also possible he's added some of his own reasoning and believes that it will be warmer than painted by the GFS post h66 based on what comes before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The channel 4 news weather in NYC lady just said snow on tuesday changing to sleet at night with snow to rain on Wednesday. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Check out where the H7 and H85 lows close off. That's a favorable setup in an awful pattern. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok...I was taking into account snow already on the ground and thought itd be a good idea of what fell, but good to know... I think generally if you took all the guidance together, for the big cities of NYC and PHL I could see it beginning as a mix/rain, then over to snow for a 4+ snowstorm...more as you go NW of course. I dont know how accurate the snowmaps off sv are...but the 4-8 falls nw of the city and the city and western LI are in the 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Those maps are snow depth maps...they are a poor representation of what's happening. The storm vista storm total snowfall maps have 4-8" everywhere with areas of 8-12". GFS gave a huge nod to the EURO this run, but isnt quite there, so it still looks a little funky, surface features are still a bit off, and precip isnt accurate yet... When all is said is done if you have a low a la EURO/GFS/UKIE track bombing there might be some rain/mix at the start for a time but it will become a significant snow storm with these depictions. By the 6z/12z we will get a better idea, as by then the GFS will be fully there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hmm not sure how accurate this map is, but it's showing snow from NYC/EWR west even at hour 72, even though the 0C line is west of the area at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hmm not sure how accurate this map is, but it's showing snow from NYC/EWR west even at hour 72, even though the 0C line is west of the area at that time The freezing line is right near the City at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 hmm not sure how accurate this map is, but it's showing snow from NYC/EWR west even at hour 72, even though the 0C line is west of the area at that time Here's a sounding just west of EWR at that timeframe (72 hr)...very borderline and could depend on precipitation intensity but looks to just barely scrape by as a snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Really more important to look at actual soundings. 72 hours is the warmest part on the gfs and even then say for NYC sounding is isothermal and probably wet snow. 78 and 84 hours it goes heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Trend has been west and will continue to trend west the next 24 to 36 hrs using the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For all of you who have been trash talking the NOGAPS. It had pretty close to the solution now displayed on the GFS for the last 2 runs already. Well here is the 0z NOGAPS now. Same thing exactly, spot on for 3 runs in a row now. It kicked the GFS's behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Trend has been west and will continue to trend west the next 24 to 36 hrs using the GFS and NAM. i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here's a sounding just west of EWR at that timeframe (72 hr)...very borderline and could depend on precipitation intensity but looks to just barely scrape by as a snow sounding. It definitely helps that the heaviest precip moves in during the evening/overnight, that way we can still see wet snow accumulations even if its slightly above freezing, especially with the frozen ground we will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is eerily similar to the January 08 bust....this time if the low is truly a bomb though the forecast for snow could be issued with more confidence since you'd get the dynamic cooling that event didnt produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For all of you who have been trash talking the NOGAPS. It had pretty close to the solution now displayed on the GFS for the last 2 runs already. Well here is the 0z NOGAPS now. Same thing exactly, spot on for 3 runs in a row now. It kicked the GFS's behind. strongly agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here is the UKMET skew T at 72 hours NYC. 850 is .6 with a ton of room to wetbulb per the text output. Again, this is probably the warmest part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is eerily similar to the January 08 bust....this time if the low is truly a bomb though the forecast for snow could be issued with more confidence since you'd get the dynamic cooling that event didnt produce. Please don't bring up that storm. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is eerily similar to the January 08 bust....this time if the low is truly a bomb though the forecast for snow could be issued with more confidence since you'd get the dynamic cooling that event didnt produce. was that the event where DC/BWI saw heavy snow due to dynamics but it turned out to be mostly rain in NYC because the storm wasn't as strong when it got here? man was the NYC thread on eastern a disaster during that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For all of you who have been trash talking the NOGAPS. It had pretty close to the solution now displayed on the GFS for the last 2 runs already. Well here is the 0z NOGAPS now. Same thing exactly, spot on for 3 runs in a row now. It kicked the GFS's behind. Its also the very reason that the GFS is still behind and playing catch up. Remember the models southeast bias..It will be slightly more west on the GFS before this is said and done..... Look at the UK @ 72 for reference how that is snug well to the coast......its actually west of the Nogaps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think were reaching a consensus here, throw out eastern NAM and western GGEM and we have a nice UK/Euro/GFS track that starts I-95 east as light rain but quickly transitions to a heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Look at the UK @ 72 for reference how that is snug well to the coast......its actually west of the Nogaps.... http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011012400®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i Looks to me that the storm will go ENE after this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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