ravensrule Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Whats CCB an acronym for? Cold Conveyor Belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice hit for NJ...PHL...NYC at 75 hrs yep verbatiam the gfs is light rain to a heavy wet snow from phl-nyc...hr 75-81 phl-nyc get a heavy wet snow fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 down to 980 east of the cape...sne is buried. Much different solution here, rain to snow for NYC, and a decent snow event at that. Have to watch the evolution of the vort over the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like NYC ends up with about .75 precip Coastal sections over 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Timing is a really important factor with this storm, we'll have to rely on it to come at night to produce the most snow because it's pretty warm during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Definitely snowstorm nw of the nyc. Much closer to its ensembles track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Whats CCB an acronym for? Cold Conveyor Belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Most of the heavier QPF falls as snow once the column cools. Pretty cool solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 H7 depiction is absolutely gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 78 hours turns out to be beautiful..CCB develops. what is your opinion of the H5 versus the surface?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like NYC ends up with about .75 precip Coastal sections over 1 inch. Yeah and its close to .75 in phl....about .25 of that is prob liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This really looks very much like the Euro. The only difference was that the Euro was 50 miles off Cape May with a 980mb low and the GFS is 100 miles off Cape May with a 988mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Convective feedback is causing an area of subsidence over New Jersey...I wouldn't pay attention to it. A gander at H5, H7, and the surface low track suggests that taken verbatim this should be a moderate to significant changeover to heavy wet snow event from Philly northward into NJ, NYC, CT and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That energy that was acting as a kicker in earlier runs hangs back and is weaker this run. Also as I discussed before, a good trend to watch for would be a stronger low closer to the coast that pulls in cold air quicker. Looks like that's what this run tries to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 72 hours around NYC the soundings are going isothermal as it transitions to wet snow and then all hell breaks lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks closer to but quicker than the euro at about as far west as nyc/nj metro want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Most of the heavier QPF falls as snow once the column cools. Pretty cool solution. good solution for the interior just like the EURO beautfiul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 almost all snow for places north of the city, thickness and 850's are originally a problem, but everything crashes as the low bombs out and moves east about .75 for NYC most snow, all snow NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah and its close to .75 in phl....about .25 of that is prob liquid Not quite. Very sharp gradient per this run and the 0.5 line cuts right through SE Bucks missing PHL. PHL gets around 0.5" since it's pretty close, and like you said, about half is liquid. The precip is kinda weird on this run. Regardless, we are still 3 days out and certainly track/temp details need to be ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT on Facebook- Wxrisk.com0Z JAN 24 GFS MODEL DISCUSSION-- 0z GFS blinks!!! says OIK European Model Ok Canadian Model OK briish Model.. YOU win... The last 6 rus of the GFS HAD take the Low OUT TO SEA north of VA... and kept NYC much mnuch colder. This run WARMS NYC waaaaaay above 0 degrees at 850 MB -- the snow to rain in NYC and PHL and NJ not at all what you guys are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not quite. Very sharp gradient per this run and the 0.5 line cuts right through SE Bucks missing PHL. PHL gets around 0.5" since it's pretty close, and like you said, about half is liquid. The precip is kinda weird on this run. Regardless, we are still 3 days out and certainly track/temp details need to be ironed out. See my post in regards to the QPF bomb and grid-scale problem...taking the synoptic solution you can figure out much more than analyzing the exact QPF of the model itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT on Facebook- Wxrisk.com0Z JAN 24 GFS MODEL DISCUSSION-- 0z GFS blinks!!! says OIK European Model Ok Canadian Model OK briish Model.. YOU win... The last 6 rus of the GFS HAD take the Low OUT TO SEA north of VA... and kept NYC much mnuch colder. This run WARMS NYC waaaaaay above 0 degrees at 850 MB -- the snow to rain in NYC and PHL and NJ not at all what you guys are saying What he is talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z ukie http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011012400®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT on Facebook- Wxrisk.com0Z JAN 24 GFS MODEL DISCUSSION-- 0z GFS blinks!!! says OIK European Model Ok Canadian Model OK briish Model.. YOU win... The last 6 rus of the GFS HAD take the Low OUT TO SEA north of VA... and kept NYC much mnuch colder. This run WARMS NYC waaaaaay above 0 degrees at 850 MB -- the snow to rain in NYC and PHL and NJ not at all what you guys are saying ok Canadian model? LOL yeah the GFS has a low 50-75 miles inland from the coast, LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here is the sounding pretty close to NYC at 78 when its ripping. At 72 its snow too but isothermal so probably not sticking yet this is a very nice snow sounding. Sorry DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT on Facebook- Wxrisk.com0Z JAN 24 GFS MODEL DISCUSSION-- 0z GFS blinks!!! says OIK European Model Ok Canadian Model OK briish Model.. YOU win... The last 6 rus of the GFS HAD take the Low OUT TO SEA north of VA... and kept NYC much mnuch colder. This run WARMS NYC waaaaaay above 0 degrees at 850 MB -- the snow to rain in NYC and PHL and NJ not at all what you guys are saying in no way on the maps that just came out on the 00z gfs does this start as snow for nyc and phl...perhaps thats a typo....its rain to snow for those two locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT on Facebook- Wxrisk.com0Z JAN 24 GFS MODEL DISCUSSION-- 0z GFS blinks!!! says OIK European Model Ok Canadian Model OK briish Model.. YOU win... The last 6 rus of the GFS HAD take the Low OUT TO SEA north of VA... and kept NYC much mnuch colder. This run WARMS NYC waaaaaay above 0 degrees at 850 MB -- the snow to rain in NYC and PHL and NJ not at all what you guys are saying Did e even look at the model. Yes it came to a solution closer to the Euro but he must be blind looking at the maps. Poor guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The similarities to the Euro are just amazing. The 0 850 line is almost spot on at its furthest northern extent across E PA and N NJ. I mean it is on to the mile in my location and within 5 miles in the ABE area between what the 12z Euro showed and what this run of the GFS shows before it starts crashing SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z ukie http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F1=p06i Looks like the Ukie is about to be a nice hit next frame at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks closer to but quicker than the euro at about as far west as nyc/nj metro want it. That looks like the 12z Euro from a couple days ago. I believe it was in reference to that run that forkyfork stated this would be our best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.