forkyfork Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The GGEM is the only model left that brings the storm inland--and it's own ensembles have abandoned it. I don't think there's much support left for that...but I have seen crazier things happen. the ggem had friday's storm being a hecs for several runs. it is well known that it overphases/overdoes coastal systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Besides the GFS/NAM which model is OTS? UKMET no? ECM? No GGEM? No.. JMA? No By the way in reference to the GGEM its showing a track that the NOGAPS once showed as its most western extreme... Counter argument is that the ECM, GGEM, and JMA were 12z runs. We've had one GFS and two NAM offshore runs since then. GGEM ensembles were also mostly offshore. I have no idea which way this goes. Very interested in the rest of the 0z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 the ggem had friday's storm being a hecs for several runs. it is well known that it overphases/overdoes coastal systems Yeah, that's what I was driving at with it's lack of ensemble support. It's 150 miles west of any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Counter argument is that the ECM, GGEM, and JMA were 12z runs. We've had one GFS and two NAM offshore runs since then. GGEM ensembles were also mostly offshore. I have no idea which way this goes. Very interested in the rest of the 0z guidance. good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Every single piece of guidance outside of the NAM/GFS bring the system across the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains..across Land (inland) ..these two models are the only two that are not doing that...could they be correct? Possibly...Likely..no ..especially considering that even the respected means of the GFS..also take it on the eastern side of the mountains across Land. Too much confidence being put in a model that was not created to look at anything beyond 48 hrs ... You mean like the NOGAPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You mean like the NOGAPS? Perhaps you should learn that the model is used as part of guidance. Once you can come to terms with this then you can come to terms with the fact that the model if used as a tool is a very valuable resource to forecasting these systems. If professional agencies such as HPC use them..then guess what? That means they are part of guidance.... As i have stated plenty of times and it wants to be ignored..thats completely fine but if a model with a progressive bias is further west then some of the other global guidance then...that implies something is in correct somewhere? Either the progressive model being further west is wrong ..or the other guidance that is more east is wrong. Because the GFS is also progressive ...so the reality of the situation is that then you would expect the NOGAPS to be South and east... if its not...then like I said..one is wrong.... Just so happens that the progressive model aside from a couple off hour runs has always been more west then any of the NAM/GFS runs...but the other non american models have already showed its solution at one point and time or another and some continue to show its solution today. as of 12 Z....and those are your better models AKA the ECM.... So i guess if you want to dismiss the NOGAPS so badly...then dismiss the ECM...cause the NOGAPS been there and done that for the longest time now ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd honestly be shocked if the GFS didn't come back towards the coast. It's ensembles have been north and west of the Operational for a few cycles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, that's what I was driving at with it's lack of ensemble support. It's 150 miles west of any other model. It seems like the ggem may be back to its more normal tendencies of being very amplified. I think the mega blocking we had in Dec and January and the way the ggem handled it caused it to have a more progressive bias with some past storms. Of course we still have 3 days and it has yet to be proven wrong but I dont think the ultimate solution is anywhere near as west as the gge, Id go with euro on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 When does 0Z GFS come out? Soon no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is just like the NAM at H5 so far, positive tilt at hr36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 When does 0Z GFS come out? Soon no? now, its out to hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There is better ridging out ahead of the storm this run.. heigher heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is ridiculously amped compared to its' 18z run through 51 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 51 low over the pandhandel of fl......850's and surface run south of dc...light preciep up to central va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Mighty warm through 57 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Mighty warm through 57 hrs are we starting to figure out that the amped up solutions would equate to rain and the OTS solutions are colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And Kudos go out to the Euro. The main difference as far as I can tell is that it did not have the same problems in the NE Gulf of Mexico confusing where the low pressure should be. It kept it whole and inland across Georgia this time like the Canadian, Euro, UKMET, and JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Really ugly at 66 hours unless you live in WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is much stronger with the vort and much warmer at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 66, like the Euro, the GFS is starting to phase the northern energy better, pulling the low up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Cooling everywhere now at 72 hours..what a weird run..might be snowing in NJ/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Cooling everywhere now at 72 hours..what a weird run..might be snowing in NJ/NYC But didn't the Euro have something like this - rain to wet snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice hit for NJ...PHL...NYC at 75 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 72 986 just east of delware....light snow for central PA...mod for south central pa...temps look like they are crashing towards the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 78 hours turns out to be beautiful..CCB develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Mighty warm through 57 hrs Around 700mb yes, it's mighty warm. But take a look at the surface. It isn't that warm believe it or not. What's causing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There are now 2 highs up north at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 78 hours turns out to be beautiful..CCB develops. Whats CCB an acronym for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like a moderate snowstorm North of PHL at 78 hrs...SNE gets buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 light rain to mod-heavy snow for the area. Low really bombs out as the vort passes well to the south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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