TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here is the information on the JMA. Note the last row in the tabe. 4D VAR is used, however, I believe its grid scale is less than the GFS and of course who knows what other physics goes into it. http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/nwp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I did not know that, but certainly Interesting, as I've heard anecdotally that the euro initialization data is more important to its success than its physics. Paging dtk, paging dtk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Paging dtk, paging dtk... iirc correctly, dtk said a couple weeks back that for the month the jma scoring has been pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Look at how the other models handle that situation. The ones that bring the low closer to the coast (Euro, Canadian, JMA) seem to focus more on the low being inland in the SE and when the NAM and GFS get to that same point they seem to focus the low more over the NE Gulf and then send it directly to the SE Coast while the other models seem to focus more on an inland low that then stays consolidated and then heads NE or reforms to Hatteras. At least that is the way it looks to me. Of course I could be wrong. Just going based upon what I am seeing when analyzing the various models. The GFS even manages to form two seperate low pressure centers along the SE coast. It just looks strange to me how when the thunderstorms start popping in the NE Coast how it then opens up the low and sends it unconsolidated to the SE Coast with multiple centers. I think you've stated that over 3 times already in this thread in the past 3-5 hrs. Do you have some analysis to back up the claim the models (NAM & GFS) have feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 iirc correctly, dtk said a couple week back that for the month the jma scoring have been pretty good. Oh yeah, but the 4DVAR vs. GDAS argument is overrated and overplayed, imo. The Euro's supremacy has as much to do with parameterizations than it does initialization, as noted by how much better the GFS has become since the radiation upgrade. I'm not familiar with the upgrades made to the JMA over the last 18 mos, but it is clearly no longer a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Srefs look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF's have NYC at 50% chance of .50 precip through hr. 87 and have a 10% chance all the way back to Scranton. 20% chance of 1 inch precip at NYC. 10% chance back to the Delaware River/ Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREFS have cooled and are narrowing in on a bench mark track. Looks like more than .5 for the mean for the nyc metro. However, we have to wait till about 9:45 for the individuals to come out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 The mean is mighty cold too with 850s off shore and surface temps cold as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Oh yeah, but the 4DVAR vs. GDAS argument is overrated and overplayed, imo. The Euro's supremacy has as much to do with parameterizations than it does initialization, as noted by how much better the GFS has become since the radiation upgrade. I'm not familiar with the upgrades made to the JMA over the last 18 mos, but it is clearly no longer a joke. Physics in these models, assumptions about heat, etc. are probably the most important factors, but a good initialization scheme can't hurt. That being said, agree with you the GFS really has shown great improvement with its recent upgrade and this winter has shown all the models have their strong and weak points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Heres the mslp at hr 78, looks like a good amt of the indiv appear to be west of the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 21z srefs are very cold. That is a tri-state snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Heres the mslp at hr 78, looks like a good amt of the indiv appear to be west of the mean And deeper, too, which should mean better dynamics aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The sref mean looks like is has narrowed. much more consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That tight gradient is very irksome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 24hr precip mean has an unusually sharp cutoff for 21 ensemble members 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How can you say narrowing in on a bench mark track when your talking the SREFs @ 87 hours cmon now everyone knows at that lead time the SREFs are not the most reliable I am strictly speaking of where they have been the last few runs. Notice how there isn't orange to the left of the track now its blue, they are centering. I think its a fair assumption to make from this run. They could be very scattered on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks terribly familiar though. We have seen this with every storm so far this year. That tight gradient is very irksome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I am strictly speaking of where they have been the last few runs. Notice how there isn't orange to the left of the track now its blue, they are centering. I think its a fair assumption to make from this run. They could be very scattered on the next one. Exactly what I was gonna say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Through 30hr the 0z NAM already has a slightly better trof tilt than 18z. A subtle change in this feature from 12z to 18z today pushed the eventual storm track well SE. This looks to penetrate the moisture and WAA a bit further north from the gulf states into the Tenn valley and initiate SLP development closer to the east coast and possibly further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 21Z RSM for those who follow it. Looks cold enough for snow but the precip doesnt make it north enough. Then again, if the SLP got closer, may not stay cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Through 48 looks better than 18Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is a nice cold air damming signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is a nice cold air damming signature. Yeah it has been showing up. I think people should be rooting for a coastal running bomb that creates its own cold air at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 compared to 12z, there is much less tilting in the trough, and the axis remains in the same position. Its going to fish again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Still looks like a + trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 compared to 12z, there is much less tilting in the trough, and the axis remains in the same position. Its going to fish again. surface low is following the deepest convection at 54...i think the surface low should be in W Florida and not N. Florida, at least based on the 500mb trough and RRQ of the 300mb level jet streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 surface low is following the deepest convection at 54...i think the surface low should be in C GA and not N. Florida, at least based on the 500mb trough and RRQ of the 300mb level jet streak surface pressure is calculated based on the physics of the energy and flow of the upper atmosphere as described by the model, and thus must be true to what the model has described at 300mb and 500mb. Your argument is invalid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks plenty cold over the NE at 60 hours with the new HP building in fast and I agree with the comments about the trough probably not being negative enough. Also dont see any northern stream energy phasing in through 60 hours. Run isn't over yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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