56er Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Mission Accomplished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats on your families addition, god bless and enjoy the most precious gift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What I said was that the modeling at the time frame with the high pressure situated directly east of the storm system would mean rain. There's still a good chance this thing is a wet event on the coast and immediate suburbs if you ask me. The high pressure slides offshore leaving an east/southeast flow in the boundary layer which means trouble. Areas further inland would be fine should the storm track along the offshore baroclinic zone as it has all year--but the areas which have been getting hammered would be too warm for a good bit of the storm. That being said..the models have transitioned to a totally different H5 setup over the past few days. The cutoff low is gone, the high which was initially modeled to be due north of our storm and then slide east is now 500 miles east into the Atlantic by the time the storm gets towards us. So, like I said, we still have a ton to work out. One encouraging thing was the Euro, being even a warm solution, closed off the 925mb low off Ocean City Maryland at 84 hours..with about 4 closed contours. That feature then rode northeast towards Nantucket. That's a terrific track for many people and could at least overcome the boundary layer problems. The Euro had everybody northwest of a line from of Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Trenton staying below freezing the entire event at 925mb. H85 obviously torched so that could mean some sleet, but it's an interesting prospect to consider. The boundary layer doesn't seem as if it's going to be trouble here...NWS has 35/22 on Wednesday which is plenty cold for snow if we get heavy omega with a closed 850mb low to our east. I agree that the position of the initial high pressure isn't very favorable for the I-95 corridor, but the storm has now slowed down to allow a second area of high pressure to move into Southeast Ontario, draining colder air into the system. Also, the ECM only rips >0C 850s 20 miles north of NYC at the warmest part of the storm, meaning that it's almost all snow here in Westchester with a bit of sleet mixed in at the height of the system. Also, the fact that the 12z ECM was probably 50% snow for NYC and 75% snow for the NW suburbs is very encouraging, as the model has an average warm bias of about 1.5C at the surface and a bit less at 850mb. If you account for this bias, you're looking at a system that's close to all snow for the metro area with only very limited mixing in LI/Brooklyn. ECM ENS seemed to support the OP pretty well at 12z, so there seems to be some agreement that above freezing temperatures are only issue for a few hours, with 850s crashing as the CCB develops, and that's likely to contain the most intense snowfall rates anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Conragulations.............now you can give pointers on the overnight runs since you will be feeding the baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The boundary layer doesn't seem as if it's going to be trouble here...NWS has 35/22 on Wednesday which is plenty cold for snow if we get heavy omega with a closed 850mb low to our east. I agree that the position of the initial high pressure isn't very favorable for the I-95 corridor, but the storm has now slowed down to allow a second area of high pressure to move into Southeast Ontario, draining colder air into the system. Also, the ECM only rips >0C 850s 20 miles north of NYC at the warmest part of the storm, meaning that it's almost all snow here in Westchester with a bit of sleet mixed in at the height of the system. Also, the fact that the 12z ECM was probably 50% snow for NYC and 75% snow for the NW suburbs is very encouraging, as the model has an average warm bias of about 1.5C at the surface and a bit less at 850mb. If you account for this bias, you're looking at a system that's close to all snow for the metro area with only very limited mixing in LI/Brooklyn. ECM ENS seemed to support the OP pretty well at 12z, so there seems to be some agreement that above freezing temperatures are only issue for a few hours, with 850s crashing as the CCB develops, and that's likely to contain the most intense snowfall rates anyway... also correcty me if im wrong though but hasnt the european model been having a warm bias this year during some of the big events as you said? also as the storm really deepens it should with that new high building in on recent model runs introduce colder or below freezing temps through all layers even to the coastal plain. the big totals are looking likely to be north and west of the nyc/phi metro area still but i dont think its gonna be as warm as the european is advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats! Good name too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On earlier gfs runs, it appeared the kicker was largely responsible for driving it off the coast. But look at the 18z. Where's the kicker?? Surely its not that vortmax over Nebraska, is it? I mean, isnt that a tad far away to act as a kicker? And yet, off the coast she goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Really cool view of the cmc ensembles an OP from ewall. This is a new feature on the site. 500 charts clearly show the difference between what makes the apps runner (fully phased solution) and the solutions more towards the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The boundary layer doesn't seem as if it's going to be trouble here...NWS has 35/22 on Wednesday which is plenty cold for snow if we get heavy omega with a closed 850mb low to our east. I agree that the position of the initial high pressure isn't very favorable for the I-95 corridor, but the storm has now slowed down to allow a second area of high pressure to move into Southeast Ontario, draining colder air into the system. Also, the ECM only rips >0C 850s 20 miles north of NYC at the warmest part of the storm, meaning that it's almost all snow here in Westchester with a bit of sleet mixed in at the height of the system. Also, the fact that the 12z ECM was probably 50% snow for NYC and 75% snow for the NW suburbs is very encouraging, as the model has an average warm bias of about 1.5C at the surface and a bit less at 850mb. If you account for this bias, you're looking at a system that's close to all snow for the metro area with only very limited mixing in LI/Brooklyn. ECM ENS seemed to support the OP pretty well at 12z, so there seems to be some agreement that above freezing temperatures are only issue for a few hours, with 850s crashing as the CCB develops, and that's likely to contain the most intense snowfall rates anyway... Well by "here" do you mean your own house? That would suggest that this is an all snow event for areas elevated and to the north/northwest, which is exactly what I alluded to in my post. The problem I see with the setup is that the high pressure sliding offshore completely defeats the purpose of the antecedent cold air which we have to work with right now. The southeast flow that develops in the lower levels as the storm is developing has to be a concern if you live near the shore or in the immediate suburbs. Once the storm approaches our latitude obviously the flow turns northwest and given the fact that the warming was marginal to begin with, we could flip back over. But I'm not going to put my eggs into the "dynamic cooling" or "backlash" snow at this point. I've been burned badly by both of those one too many times. That being said, we have the GGEM with the CCB over Pittsburgh, the GFS and NAM out to sea, and the Euro somewhere in between. We've got a few more important guidance cycles until we can start analyzing the thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On earlier gfs runs, it appeared the kicker was largely responsible for driving it off the coast. But look at the 18z. Where's the kicker?? Surely its not that vortmax over Nebraska, is it? I mean, isnt that a tad far away to act as a kicker? And yet, off the coast she goes! Its not so much a kicker as the northern stream not phasing with the southern jet, so it kicks east unphased. The euro at about 66 hours starts to phase in some the northern energy and that keeps the low track further north and west. The cmc takes all of the northern energy almost immediately in runs and phases it in and thus the really western solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 also as the storm really deepens it should with that new high building in on recent model runs introduce colder or below freezing temps through all layers even to the coastal plain. The problem is that until the surface low gets further north you're still going to have a southeast flow in the boundary layer that needs to be scoured out. The high pressure slides east off the coast and that creates an unfavorable flow. Using the 12z NAM as reference you can see the return flow developing on the 10m winds. Check out tonight's forecast (first link) with the northwest winds, and then by tomorrow night into Tuesday with the high offshore those winds are light and out of the south. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/f12.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/f57.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrads Jay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Awesome! Congratulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is slightly OT, but I want to post this where most of you will see it. First of all, there is some good discussion going on right now If one finds themselves 5ppd'd(Post restricted to five posts per day), it means that they need to start reading what they are posting before making the post, and making sure it adds to the discussion in some way. No, it's not permanent and most times a 5ppd is taken away fairly quickly once the quality of the posts they are making improves. If one finds themselves 5ppd'd for an extended period of time, then they can feel free to politely pm a mod or admin and ask about the status of their 5ppd. In most cases, they were simply overlooked and the mod or admin will take the restriction off. What they should NOT do is send an irate PM demanding to know why they were 5ppd'd and angrily demand that the restriction be removed. That will only make their post restriction last longer. Using threats takes one from restricted posting to a lengthy suspension or worse. Ok, back to tracking the storm. Congrats Jay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is slightly OT, but I want to post this where most of you will see it. First of all, there is some good discussion going on right now If one finds themselves 5ppd'd(Post restricted to five posts per day), it means that they need to start reading what they are posting before making the post, and making sure it adds to the discussion in some way. No, it's not permanent and most times a 5ppd is taken away fairly quickly once the quality of the posts they are making improves. If one finds themselves 5ppd'd for an extended period of time, then they can feel free to politely pm a mod or admin and ask about the status of their 5ppd. In mose cases, they were simply overlooked and the mod or admin will take the restriction off. What they should NOT do is send an irate PM demanding to know why they were 5ppd'd and angrily demand that they be removed. That will only make their post restriction last longer. Using threats takes one from restricted posting to a lengthy suspension or worse. Ok, back to tracking the storm. Congrats Jay! Thank you for the clarification....and this is my last post of the day...see you tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well by "here" do you mean your own house? That would suggest that this is an all snow event for areas elevated and to the north/northwest, which is exactly what I alluded to in my post. The problem I see with the setup is that the high pressure sliding offshore completely defeats the purpose of the antecedent cold air which we have to work with right now. The southeast flow that develops in the lower levels as the storm is developing has to be a concern if you live near the shore or in the immediate suburbs. Once the storm approaches our latitude obviously the flow turns northwest and given the fact that the warming was marginal to begin with, we could flip back over. But I'm not going to put my eggs into the "dynamic cooling" or "backlash" snow at this point. I've been burned badly by both of those one too many times. That being said, we have the GGEM with the CCB over Pittsburgh, the GFS and NAM out to sea, and the Euro somewhere in between. We've got a few more important guidance cycles until we can start analyzing the thermal profiles. I think we are basically in agreement...some mixing for coastal sections but probably mostly snow in the elevated suburbs. The reinforcing high pressure seems to deliver the necessary cold air when the CCB starts to develop, which is the most important part of the storm from a snowfall perspective. Having a NW flow off a high pressure with -35C 850s is obviously going to entrain some bitter air into the system eventually, and the 12z ECM definitely showed this with the CCB eventually nuking NYC metro. In this case, the system slowing down might actually be advantageous to us. I'd trust the ECM most as it seems to be a reasonable compromise and near the seasonal track. The NAM just looks out to lunch, GFS has a SE bias, and the GGEM has very poor verification scores with limited ensemble agreement. The ECM is the only model that seems to be in lockstep with its ensembles, definitely a good sign that it has a great handle on this Gulf Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 forgot about the JMA being free domain from this site now Edit add 72 HR for reference though already posted several pages back in this thread 72 hrs 96 HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 forgot about the JMA being free domain from this site now Edit add 72 HR for reference though already posted several pages back in this thread 72 hrs 96 HR The best stuff happens between those two frames so we are left to guess. I guess it probably looks like the euro or makybe the ukmet. JMA is generally pretty good inside of 72 hours, so we can pay more attention to it then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 First post... philly med student just trying to gain a grasp on what's coming this week. I have loved meteorology and snow storms my entire life... took some meteorology courses at PSU but decided to pursue medicine. Prob would have had much more fun if I'd done meteorology, to be honest. At any rate, I am curious as to whether the current models have indicated whether the "arctic" high pressure will be cut off or will supply cold air advection into the storm...? I'm also curious about how the trends have proceeded throughout the day with respect to track and jetstream-mediated subtropical feed that might provide a warmer solution if the gulf feed is not cut off as the storm makes its jaunt up the coast... I'm also aware that as the low deepens ("bombs") off the coast, a NW wrap-around is typically favored. Can anyone describe the dynamics at play with this particular storm? I simply do not understand the lingo as I peruse PSU's weather wall. Thanks for your input, guys! -Max forgot about the JMA being free domain from this site now 96 HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As much as the JMA gets panned, its either been among the first to sniff out an east coast storm threat...and in the hunt on the details as well as any model except the euro for at least the last few years. Flame away, but that's my strong recollection without any verification data to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As much as the JMA gets panned, its either been among the first to sniff out an east coast storm threat...and in the hunt on the details as well as any model except the euro for at least the last few years. Flame away, but that's my strong recollection without any verification data to back it up. Inside of 3 days its verification scores are very good. It actually uses the initialization scheme the euro does. Outside of three days it can be hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Inside of 3 days its verification scores are very good. It actually uses the initialization scheme the euro does. Outside of three days it can be hit or miss. I did not know that, but certainly Interesting, as I've heard anecdotally that the euro initialization data is more important to its success than its physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 First post... philly med student just trying to gain a grasp on what's coming this week. I have loved meteorology and snow storms my entire life... took some meteorology courses at PSU but decided to pursue medicine. Prob would have had much more fun if I'd done meteorology, to be honest. At any rate, I am curious as to whether the current models have indicated whether the "arctic" high pressure will be cut off or will supply cold air advection into the storm...? I'm also curious about how the trends have proceeded throughout the day with respect to track and jetstream-mediated subtropical feed that might provide a warmer solution if the gulf feed is not cut off as the storm makes its jaunt up the coast... I'm also aware that as the low deepens ("bombs") off the coast, a NW wrap-around is typically favored. Can anyone describe the dynamics at play with this particular storm? I simply do not understand the lingo as I peruse PSU's weather wall. Thanks for your input, guys! -Max To answer your first question most modeling has no Arctic high as its escaping east of New England ahead of the storm, in fact its escaping so fast that its actually getting far enough away to where its flow is less of a problem. there is no subtropical feed so to speak, just gulf moisture as low is forming in the gulf and bringing it north with it. Track has been a big issue in modeling the past couple days. American model has been generally showing a track that is coastal graze or bringing precip to I-95 corridor no-further. But the model is known for its south east bias. Other modeling has shown inland track, but a coastal hugger is the mean of all the modeling at this point. The precip field will be rather compact due to the nature of the upper level energy being compact. Temperatures are the biggest fight though with no arctic high in place, both at the surface and at higher levels. Some modeling is slowing the system down enough to allow for another High to get closer perhaps influencing as a better cold air source, but some of these are the less accurate models or ones on the edge of their range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't think these are supposed to be posted. These are not from the free section as far as I understand they are from the Gold section. Not sure that is free. its public domain now saw someone post it the other day, it was removed by mods and then restored after confirmation, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What I find interesting is how similar this looks to the Euro. When I have seen the JMA and the Euro look similar before, that is usually what happens. I think the GFS and NAM are suffering from feedback issues in the NE Gulf at the moment from the thunderstorm development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok. like I said, not sure. I would have posted it earlier, but they have the free stuff listed separately but maybe they changed something. I logged out of my account and can access it through google Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 To answer your first question most modeling has no Arctic high as its escaping east of New England ahead of the storm, in fact its escaping so fast that its actually getting far enough away to where its flow is less of a problem. there is no subtropical feed so to speak, just gulf moisture as low is forming in the gulf and bringing it north with it. Track has been a big issue in modeling the past couple days. American model has been generally showing a track that is coastal graze or bringing precip to I-95 corridor no-further. But the model is known for its south east bias. Other modeling has shown inland track, but a coastal hugger is the mean of all the modeling at this point. The precip field will be rather compact due to the nature of the upper level energy being compact. Temperatures are the biggest fight though with no arctic high in place, both at the surface and at higher levels. Some modeling is slowing the system down enough to allow for another High to get closer perhaps influencing as a better cold air source, but some of these are the less accurate models or ones on the edge of their range Great reply... many thanks! With respect to the "subtropical" flow (i may have been mislabeling this), I was just curious as to how the jetstream has influenced this storm. Many times with these coastal lows... it appears as though the jetstream curves back inland across PA/NY which provides warm advection in advance of the storm, which seems to be distressing to this storm solution sans a strong arctic high pressure in-place... overrunning simply being replaced by moderating surface temperatures. Being in Philly, I'm definitely concerned that the typical pattern of being on the 0/32 freezing line will be at play during the day on Wednesday. PS this week I am ranking internship positions, and I interviewed at St. Joseph's Reading... any thoughts? Reading a good place to live? -Max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the GFS and NAM are suffering from feedback issues in the NE Gulf at the moment. I think you've stated that over 3 times already in this thread in the past 3-5 hrs. Do you have some analysis to back up the claim the models (NAM & GFS) have feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What I find interesting is how similar this looks to the Euro. When I have seen the JMA and the Euro look similar before, that is usually what happens. I think the GFS and NAM are suffering from feedback issues in the NE Gulf at the moment from the thunderstorm development. Also interesting how the American suite is lockstep in the same direction at 6z and 18z vs 0z/12z....I view that as a false positive signal (i.e., their clueless) based on the times this has happened in the past...as compared with these mods scoring a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok. like I said, not sure. I would have posted it earlier, but they have the free stuff listed separately but maybe they changed something. If they put it behind a paywall, then we'll take it down. You can find it easily on google, so I assume it is public domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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