jrodd321 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew congrats man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats! You and I look to be in the prime position for this storm if the ECM/ECM ENS verify...could be a wet snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 congrats jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats! Now you will be up all night anyway so you can give us 24/7 pro met opinions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Add the JMA which looks exactly like the Euro to that. Congrats! You and I look to be in the prime position for this storm if the ECM/ECM ENS verify...could be a wet snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats, but get back to work for us! Ha, j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thanks all for the congrats.. It's so overwhelming especially with a 95 pound black lab mix in the house.. Thanks nzucker for the quick summary... I'm sure I'll be up late at night hanging with all of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats - a snow baby! Hopefully, he'll get to see his first winter storm this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats tornadojay!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats....awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does the MJO have to do anything with this storm? It's now in phase 7, moving a long into phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Congrats Jay! But remember not to piss the wife off by hanging with us while the baby's diaper needs changing and its your turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You guys are really gonna get a kick out of this.. I was in the labor room when she was giving birth.. I was so nervous to look that I was watching the 12z GFS come out on my iPhone.. Lol.. Talk about the ultimate weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 congrats Jay....best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does the MJO have to do anything with this storm? It's now in phase 7, moving a long into phase 8. As you probably know, Phase 8 is the best phase for a snowstorm on the east coast. Phase 7 is alright also (12/19/2009 was a P7 storm) but P8 storms tend to amplify more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Does the MJO have to do anything with this storm? It's now in phase 7, moving a long into phase 8. phase 7 going into 8 are best for east coast snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Mazel tov (as they say in meteorology school). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 congrats to Jay. Here is Upton's Take STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM JUST A GRAZING OF FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE GFS (TRACK WELL SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK)...TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH POSSIBLY FLOODING RAINS ELSEWHERE IN THE CMC-GLOBAL (TRACK OVER THE POCONOS/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY). WITH THESE SOLUTIONS BEING THE OUTLIERS...HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN WHICH HAVE A STORM TRACK JUST NW OF THE BENCHMARK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES EVEN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE ECMWF WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN THE GEFS MEAN. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING COLDER...OPTED FOR A 70/30 BLEND OF ECMWF TO GFS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS TO DETERMINE P-TYPE. WHILE THERE COULD BE A NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THINGS RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX/SNOW FOR NOW FOR BOTH SIMPLICITY AND TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY. AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INTO A TROUGH/POSSIBLE CLOSED 500 HPA LOW THAT SHOULD BE AROUND NORTHERN AL/GA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WITH THE 500 HPA SYSTEM...TRACKING TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW. HELD OF ON CHANCE POPS FROM THE STORM UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT...PRIMARILY AS SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE A MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND A RAIN SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. GRADUALLY CHANG PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS TO THE E/NE. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...AND THE LOWEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. THERE IS AN EVEN SMALLER POSSIBILITY OF MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 phase 7 going into 8 are best for east coast snowstorms Very unusual to have strong convection near the Dateline in a powerful La Niña, but there was a similar MJO wave in January 1976, which was also a strong Niña winter. That's clearly forcing the +PNA/-EPO that's causing all the brutal cold and snow threats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew CONGRATS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z GEFS means are good if you like snow near the coast. It's certainly an interesting situation setting up here between the 12z ECMWF and it's ensembles, as well as the GEFS means and NAM. The SREF shouldn't really be too heavily weighted at this point, especially the mean. The individual members are a complete wreck with some very far west, and some very far east..yielding a mean which looks fantastic. Those are things you need to be wary about when using ensembles. The GFS ensembles at 12z, I figured were the same deal..with some left and some right yielding a mean somewhere in between. That's not the case...probably 8-10 of the 12 have significant snowstorms. Still a whole lot to sort out as we sit here 78 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 congrats to Jay. Here is Upton's Take STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM JUST A GRAZING OF FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE GFS (TRACK WELL SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK)...TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH POSSIBLY FLOODING RAINS ELSEWHERE IN THE CMC-GLOBAL (TRACK OVER THE POCONOS/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY). WITH THESE SOLUTIONS BEING THE OUTLIERS...HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN WHICH HAVE A STORM TRACK JUST NW OF THE BENCHMARK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES EVEN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE ECMWF WARMER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN THE GEFS MEAN. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING COLDER...OPTED FOR A 70/30 BLEND OF ECMWF TO GFS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS TO DETERMINE P-TYPE. WHILE THERE COULD BE A NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THINGS RAIN/RAIN-SNOW MIX/SNOW FOR NOW FOR BOTH SIMPLICITY AND TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY. AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INTO A TROUGH/POSSIBLE CLOSED 500 HPA LOW THAT SHOULD BE AROUND NORTHERN AL/GA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WITH THE 500 HPA SYSTEM...TRACKING TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW. HELD OF ON CHANCE POPS FROM THE STORM UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT...PRIMARILY AS SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE A MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND A RAIN SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. GRADUALLY CHANG PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS TO THE E/NE. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...AND THE LOWEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. THERE IS AN EVEN SMALLER POSSIBILITY OF MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. Had to laugh at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Had to laugh at that lol that's funny but I thought the misspelling of "accumulation" from the map posted earlier was even better The Xmas 2002 analog seems alive and well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 But, I thought this was guaranteed to be a rainstorm? What I said was that the modeling at the time frame with the high pressure situated directly east of the storm system would mean rain. There's still a good chance this thing is a wet event on the coast and immediate suburbs if you ask me. The high pressure slides offshore leaving an east/southeast flow in the boundary layer which means trouble. Areas further inland would be fine should the storm track along the offshore baroclinic zone as it has all year--but the areas which have been getting hammered would be too warm for a good bit of the storm. That being said..the models have transitioned to a totally different H5 setup over the past few days. The cutoff low is gone, the high which was initially modeled to be due north of our storm and then slide east is now 500 miles east into the Atlantic by the time the storm gets towards us. So, like I said, we still have a ton to work out. One encouraging thing was the Euro, being even a warm solution, closed off the 925mb low off Ocean City Maryland at 84 hours..with about 4 closed contours. That feature then rode northeast towards Nantucket. That's a terrific track for many people and could at least overcome the boundary layer problems. The Euro had everybody northwest of a line from of Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Trenton staying below freezing the entire event at 925mb. H85 obviously torched so that could mean some sleet, but it's an interesting prospect to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey all.. Glad to see there is still a storm threat to track after being out of the loop for a while... My wife had a baby boy named Matthew Congrats to you, your wife and Matthew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 But, I thought this was guaranteed to be a rainstorm? I am no Moderator here, but c'mon guys take it easy. I think the rainier solutions are slowly going by the wayside based on the trends but not completely out of the picture just yet. We will see if we can thread the needle with this one, seasonal trend is in our favor. I would like to see the Euro shift 25-50 miles further east in track and be more gung ho with the High over the lakes as far as placing it further South and east as well as more gung ho on having the storm generate it's own cold air even moreso than the Euro depicted at 12z with the proper timing of course needed to bring snow to us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Individual members. Whole top row is OTS. Still a few nice hits, really no warm solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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