SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the dec 26th storm did not have a storm kicker on its heels....my GUESS by looking at the h5 panel at 48hrs is that this will be EAST...not being NEGATIVE, just an educated guess based on logic. The kicker in that case amplified significantly to pull it back, this kicker is very progressive so I just don't see it being able to pull this storm north or north-northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the dec 26th storm did not have a storm kicker on its heels....my GUESS by looking at the h5 panel at 48hrs is that this will be EAST...not being NEGATIVE, just an educated guess based on logic. Yep, the storm is just offshore. There is a potent high up north that is funneling down cold air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 US models are having problems with gulf low and have no consistency. Have to go with Euro at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I could be totally wrong, but to me it looks like everything has gone negative, so what causes it to slide ots? Shouldn't it come up the coast??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The kicker in that case amplified significantly to pull it back, this kicker is very progressive so I just don't see it being able to pull this storm north or north-northwest so you are agreeing with me....with the way the GFS has this unfolding there will be no storm...that kicker (as I stated 4 days ago) will be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This one may not either. The models viewed something that actually phased in as a kicker, hence the out-to-sea solution produced prior to that blizzard. The same thing may be happening here. the dec 26th storm did not have a storm kicker on its heels....my GUESS by looking at the h5 panel at 48hrs is that this will be EAST...not being NEGATIVE, just an educated guess based on logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I could be totally wrong, but to me it looks like everything has gone negative, so what causes it to slide ots? Shouldn't it come up the coast??? going negative doesnt mean it can amplify...what mechanism is bringing it up the coast? hint- look on the h5 maps at the kicker dropping down...its forcing the main SW to kick out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How is the Euro handling the kicker? The kicker in that case amplified significantly to pull it back, this kicker is very progressive so I just don't see it being able to pull this storm north or north-northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I could be totally wrong, but to me it looks like everything has gone negative, so what causes it to slide ots? Shouldn't it come up the coast??? Stolen from the MA thread... Graphic of all 12z model storm tracks (subtract the GGEM) and agreement is pretty impressive of a near BM low at our latitude. Storm track looks pretty close to optimal on average, just a matter of temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This one may not either. The models viewed something that actually phased in as a kicker, hence the out-to-sea solution produced prior to that blizzard. The same thing may be happening here. that kicker has been there every model run for like 16 straight runs....most choose to ignore it then and now are trying to see things that arent likely. If that is an actual follow up SW this will go out east...IM NOT SAYING ITS RIGHT...just making the point if it is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 wow, look at that cluster Very impressive. The only member that is inland is the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How is the Euro handling the kicker? The Euro seems a bit washed out with the same kicker the GFS has booting the system, its stronger with the system behind the kicker that digs into the southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 US models are having problems with gulf low and have no consistency. Have to go with Euro at this time. Safe bet but there is plenty of valid evidence supporting the GFS/NAM solutions. It has been mentioned countless times in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Gotta love how the 0 line just follows the heavy precip right down. Almost like it's not allowing any to come past it haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that kicker has been there every model run for like 16 straight runs....most choose to ignore it then and now are trying to see things that arent likely. If that is an actual follow up SW this will go out east...IM NOT SAYING ITS RIGHT...just making the point if it is right Right. The early negative tilt forces the sfc low much farther west initially, then the s/w dropping down into the OH Valley forces the sfc low east as time goes on. It's all a matter of timing. The Euro is slower bringing the second s/w down, so that's why you end up with a farther west solution, the GFS is faster with it, so the storm heads out to sea quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 for this wondering the 18 gfs is a miss again. I did not see it posted in this thread Total QPF is lower compared to the 12 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that kicker has been there every model run for like 16 straight runs....most choose to ignore it then and now are trying to see things that arent likely. If that is an actual follow up SW this will go out east...IM NOT SAYING ITS RIGHT...just making the point if it is right Agreed, It seems to be a prominent feature. If we want our vort to stay closer to the coast, we need that kicker to weaken, back off, or phase with our system. I posted this earlier from the 12Z GFS indicating the kicker vort, for those who don't know what we are talking about: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Gotta love how the 0 line just follows the heavy precip right down. Almost like it's not allowing any to come past it haha. I'm a bit lost as to why the models have not shown the system nudging the colder air into the system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep What you really need to realize is the trends on the ensemble means as the ensemble means are playing catch up to the OP runs... Proof 00z 12 Z As you can plainly see 12 Z is west & more amplified then 00z....that is what you want to watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro seems a bit washed out with the same kicker the GFS has booting the system, its stronger with the system behind the kicker that digs into the southern Plains. if that second SW would dive further south as opposed to SE would the heights be forced to raise out ahead and allow for more amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z NOGAPS shockingly not that far east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol HPC seems to be siding with western solutions, wow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 if that second SW would dive further south as opposed to SE would the heights be forced to raise out ahead and allow for more amplification? It would be way too late at that point since that system doesn't drop south until near 80-90 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What you really need to realize is the trends on the ensemble means as the ensemble means are playing catch up to the OP runs... Proof 00z 12 Z As you can plainly see 12 Z is west & more amplified then 00z....that is what you want to watch.. The far inland members are skewing that. The majority of the members are well east of the Mean. Someone pointed out earlier that using means are not efficient as they are skewed by extreme results. It matters how many members agree with the Mean and in the case of the GEM barely any do and it has been like that for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Agreed, It seems to be a prominent feature. If we want our vort to stay closer to the coast, we need that kicker to weaken, back off, or phase with our system. I posted this earlier from the 12Z GFS indicating the kicker vort, for those who don't know what we are talking about: And watch the ensembles be much further west and closer to the Euro's track. The GFS often plays these games with different features in the jet and emphasizes the wrong piece, etc. It did atrociously with the 1/12 storm for partly that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol HPC seems to be siding with western solutions, wow: I would assume they're using the GEM, even the Euro would not have the snow axis that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm a bit lost as to why the models have not shown the system nudging the colder air into the system as well. Almost all of the models show a new high dropping down in time for the storm. The high doesn't really do anything though. I think this is another thing to watch in future runs. What you really need to realize is the trends on the ensemble means as the ensemble means are playing catch up to the OP runs... Proof 00z 12 Z As you can plainly see 12 Z is west & more amplified then 00z....that is what you want to watch.. That makes the GGEM an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol HPC seems to be siding with western solutions, wow: They are hugging the Gem and that really is a misstep on their part based on it's performance at this time range this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It would be way too late at that point since that system doesn't drop south until near 80-90 hours out. are you referring to the main shortwave or the kicker shortwave? I think I understand...meaning even if the kicker shortwave drops further south or even southwest it couldnt have a big enough downstream influence because of how late in the process its entering the picture, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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