tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All I have are the H5 spag charts, but that would be my educated guess. It won't be a lot farther east and I think more than anything confirms the suspicions that a 30 hr snowstorm with no block is unlikely. well looking at the op, all it takes prob is a 50 mile shift east and the cities would probably see a good bit more frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We have had snowstorms without a block, i don't know why people assume we can't if there's no blocking. Obviously it's much less likely but it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We have had snowstorms without a block, i don't know why people assume we can't if there's no blocking. Obviously it's much less likely but it is possible. I think it is the duration that is being brought into question because without blocking it'll most likely be a quicker hitter than what is being advertised by the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 nam is coming in less amped so far...northern stream looks alittle more separated to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 96 hour Euro maps have over an inch of liquid falling as snow For NE PA..all of NJ north of Philly..into Southern New England Right to the Jersey coast even? JUust peaking through the thread now havent been home since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Through 42 hrs there is a little better connection with the northern stream at 500mbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We have had snowstorms without a block, i don't know why people assume we can't if there's no blocking. Obviously it's much less likely but it is possible. I just read through the last 7 pages or so of this thread and I can't recall anyone saying point blank that it couldn't happen. I agree with your take, but I haven't seen anyone canceling the storm for lack of a block... Seems to me the Euro and its ens members are really starting to hone in on a solution here. How much credence should we really lend to the upcoming 18z runs? If the recent past is any guide, they will be somewhat to wildly different than their 0z/12z counterparts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We have had snowstorms without a block, i don't know why people assume we can't if there's no blocking. Obviously it's much less likely but it is possible. Just saw the EURO maps, from about ABE to MMU to GWB northward would be 0 or below for the entire event @ 850mb, NYC itself looks to be about 50/50 snow/non-snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Right to the Jersey coast even? JUust peaking through the thread now havent been home since yesterday. Just away from the shore. I'm not sure of the accuracy of these maps though...it's basically titled as the amount of liquid that falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just saw the EURO maps, from about ABE to MMU to GWB northward would be 0 or below for the entire event @ 850mb, NYC itself looks to be about 50/50 snow/non-snow. That would make the Hudson River the dividing line. I have seen that before. Thank you for pointing that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 nam is coming in less amped so far...northern stream looks alittle more separated to. Amplitude looks about the same to me. Actually very similar to 12z overall. But the southern stream is slightly flatter (i.e, pos tilted) through 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18Z NAM 54hr looks good so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 60 going neutral, that vort behind the trough doesn't look like it will act as a kicker but gotta watch any vorts on the back side: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Could someone draw a rough approximation of how the 850 mb 0C line is oriented across the northeast during the height of the storm? up jerz coast then through the eastern 1/3 of li then up through far eastern ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 up jerz coast then through the eastern 1/3 of li then up through far eastern ct Thanks tombo. It's a little confusing because in the NE thread I heard the 850 line got up to the Mass. Pike but maybe that is prior to the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thanks tombo. It's a little confusing because in the NE thread I heard the 850 line got up to the Mass. Pike but maybe that is prior to the height of the storm. yea hr 84 it runs through far northern ct...hr 90 is the hgt of the storm which i sent you the 850 location for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 66 going negative, still don't know what is going on with that "secondary trough" behind our main one. I think that may be causing some problems: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 66 going negative, still don't know what is going on with that "secondary trough" behind our main one. I think that may be causing some problems: The differences between 18z and 12z are starting to get more significant. The overall amplitude and placement of the trof is similar, but the tilt is increasingly more positive in comparison. The vort is also less intense and compact. This looks to be further east than 12z, possibly a coastal grazer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The differences between 18z and 12z are starting to get more significant. The overall amplitude and placement of the trof is similar, but the tilt is increasingly more positive in comparison. The vort is also less intense and compact. This looks to be further east than 12z, possibly a coastal grazer. yea thats what it looks to me, hr 72 has the low east of hse already, most of the precip offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The nam looks like it is ready to slide everything off the southeast coast...looks bad in general at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Nam seems similar to the GFS 12z with the slp placment at 60 and 66 respectively. The GFS has a bit more precip on the western side though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yea thats what it looks to me, hr 72 has the low east of hse already, most of the precip offshore. 78 its pretty much gone...kinda messy at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Whats up with the double barrel lows off the SE Coast at 72 hours? Both are 1004 so i am nto sure if its getting confused as this is something new also showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 78 its pretty much gone...kinda messy at h5 The only thing that this run really reinforces is that we still really have very little idea what this storm is going to do. The solutions range from inland and rain to sliding SE and just grazing coastal areas. It seems that this is really a difficult H5 setup and the models really have no idea what to do with it yet. Hope for model consensus will have to wait yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 each model is throwing out something different, amazing. cant remember te last time we saw run to run consistency with every model for a storm this year. Yea there are still so many different solutions. It seems cliche almost to say that this is an extremely difficult forecast, but this moreso then any other storm this year really is difficult. At least we knew with other storms a general idea of what we were working with, it was just the exact track. The models with this storm do not know if they want to tuck it close to the coast and wind it up or whether they want to string it out and move it SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 PS: If there is one positive to take away from the 18Z nam it is that placement of a 1024 MB high right over the GL. IF and that is a big if with any part of this forecast, we can actually get that high there then that will assuage at least some of the members' worries of a mostly rainy situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea there are still so many different solutions. It seems cliche almost to say that this is an extremely difficult forecast, but this moreso then any other storm this year really is difficult. At least we knew with other storms a general idea of what we were working with, it was just the exact track. The models with this storm do not know if they want to tuck it close to the coast and wind it up or whether they want to string it out and move it SE. I think the nam inconsistency has been the worse. It's gone from complete out to sea, to warm rain for most earlier today. Probably just 18z up to its usual junk. Woudn't worry if GFS comes in much more like euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEM, warm and 55 NYC with a ton of Rain to NAM and GFS mainly out to sea and cold. This is insane, at this point I would use the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEM, warm and 55 NYC with a ton of Rain to NAM and GFS mainly out to sea and cold. This is insane, at this point I would use the ECMWF. It does seem to take a middle ground between the two extreme scenarios, and as such might be worthy of strong consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Guys, with the delayed onset, we're basically still 72 hrs out. I wouldn't expect any consistency until tomorrow night. None of the storms this year had any sort of lock-in until inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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