earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The Euro has a two closed contour 925 and 850 mb lows east of OC MD at 84 hrs..anybody 25 miles away from the coast probably gets a squirrel squashing heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Its the trends to look at right....Not take every model run verbatum....which, it seems too many people are doing.Colder, slower....and if this continues probably snowier as the days are going by. Now I'm not just saying that because I live on the coast either, when I saw rain I said rain....just want to clear that up also... Absolutely and more changes are still likely. Anything is still possible but the trend has become much more favorable for eastern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 By the way...Euro has a huge snowstorm impacting the Mid Atlantic at 240 hours with a nice signal and a surface low off the GA coast..about to impact the entire area with snow. There is still lots of uncertainty with the first storm, so let's deal with that first before chatting up the next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 There is still lots of uncertainty with the first storm, so let's deal with that first before chatting up the next threat. I know, I just figured I would note it since a few people asked what it was showing in the long range. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No, honestly, that is the way it looks to me. If you want to average it out you could just say the whole state is 1.75. That would be pretty close for everyone in DE. Are you messing with me? our state is about 25 miles west to east in the North and maybe 60 in the southern most portion? Maybe you meant North to South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A little snow with an Albert clipper passing to our north next weekend then another huge coastal forming for the middle of the following week again at 240 hrs. (looks like a repeat performance) how does the euro look after this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 96 hour Euro maps have over an inch of liquid falling as snow For NE PA..all of NJ north of Philly..into Southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NOTE: This is dtk's post in the locked thread... thought I would move it over here so all could see and in case it gets lost in the now locked thread Just something to keep in mind, recently the GFS has had a SLIGHT near-surface cold bias while the Euro has definitely run a bit warm. These are hemispheric examples, but demonstrate the point [the black is GFS and red ECMWF....this is the average temperature bias as a function of forecast lead time for the past month or so....each system verified against its own analysis.....this is 1000 mb, so you have to be careful about interpretation): Here is more evidence, but actually implies the GFS has a slight WARM near surface bias at 48 hours. The plot below are the mean fits of temperatures forecasts to RAOBS over NA for 2 day forecasts for the past month (GFS black, ECM red). The dashed line is the bias (solid RMSE)....notice the substantial warm bias between 1000 and 800 on the ECMWF..... I'm not saying this translates to anything specific for this forecast, just something to bear in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As a reminder, the banter thread is available to discuss things that aren't related to this specific winter storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Middle ground between euro and gfs probably the safe bet right now, something more like the gefs 12z and euro ensembles from 00z pending 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Middle ground between euro and gfs probably the safe bet right now, something more like the gefs 12z and euro ensembles from 00z pending 12z. I think that for areas just west of 95, lets say from 20 miles or so, to about the catskills, poconos and into interior SNE are going to get absolutely plastered by a heavy wet snow which could cause a lot of problems. This area of high impact could easily shift west or more likely east over the next couple days but I definitely see this as being a very high impact storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 15z srefs starting to move their look towards the global guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Honestly, if you just take an average of all the global models at this point you end up with something close to the EC. You have the Canadian way inland to the UKMET out to sea, to the GFS and NOGAPS brushing the coast. The average is very close to what the ECMWF portrays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 sref 24 precip at 87, much wetter for temps, 850 at 84 hours just south of long island then crashes at 87. 2m temps 0c along ct coast at 84 then crashes at 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiqqa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Honestly, if you just take an average of all the global models at this point you end up with something close to the EC. You have the Canadian way inland to the UKMET out to sea, to the GFS and NOGAPS brushing the coast. The average is very close to what the ECMWF portrays. you got a good point. should be interesting to see what the gfs and nam portrays in the 0z runs. the 12z was considerably west of the 00z. trend? we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 UKMET is not out to sea...we just do not have the 90 hr image to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 UKMET is not out to sea...we just do not have the 90 hr image to see yes is goes directly ENE from there to 96 so unless this storm goes directly north than makes a hard right (which obv is not what happens), this solution is among the eastern edge of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 UKMET is not out to sea...we just do not have the 90 hr image to see Looks a lot like (slightly east of) the Euro at 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 how are the winds going to be any idea yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 how are the winds going to be any idea yet? Think winds will definitely be strong, considering how intense the low gets as it climbs the coast, I could see 40-50mph wind gusts along the coast,.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As a reminder, the banter thread is available to discuss things that aren't related to this specific winter storm: http://www.americanw...-banter-thread/ As well as the chat room that no one ever uses: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=ipchat Chat banter in real time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiqqa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 how strong is the area of LP on the euro once its off the NJ coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yes is goes directly ENE from there to 96 so unless this storm goes directly north than makes a hard right (which obv is not what happens), this solution is among the eastern edge of the guidance. At 96 hrs it ends up east of Cape Cod It may be slightly east of the ECM at that time but it is definitely not out to sea... An out to sea scenario does not bring precipitation into the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 how strong is the area of LP on the euro once its off the NJ coast? Around 980mb at 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 96 hrs it ends up east of Cape Cod It may be slightly east of the ECM at that time but it is definitely not out to sea... An out to sea scenario does not bring precipitation into the region... might be east? at hr 96 it is over 200miles east of CC...the euro while NE of CC gained a lot more latitude then the UK ever did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 might be east? at hr 96 it is over 200miles east of CC...the euro while NE of CC gained a lot more latitude then the UK ever did... He said at that time (hr 84). It isn't very far east at that time. It does seem that post-84-hours seems to be the point where the models deviate the tracks the most. Some kicking it OTS, others keeping it tucked in closer for another hundred miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 About 30% of the Euro ensemble members are more amplified than the op and would represent a farther west solution than the op. Most are faster and less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 About 30% of the Euro ensemble members are more amplified than the op and would represent a farther west solution than the op. Most are faster and less amplified. faster and less amplified, meaning further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 faster and less amplified, meaning further east? All I have are the H5 spag charts, but that would be my educated guess. It won't be a lot farther east and I think more than anything confirms the suspicions that a 30 hr snowstorm with no block is unlikely. EDIT: Actually, the low track on the mean isn't all that different (probably because the deeper solutions will be farther west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No, honestly, that is the way it looks to me. If you want to average it out you could just say the whole state is 1.75. That would be pretty close for everyone in DE. Thank you so much! I appreciate the extra effort! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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