Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looks as if everyone was right who said models would waffle back and forth and eventually come back to the west. still a few more days to go but things are definitely getting better, especially with it drawing closer and closer to the storm time frame. be careful with your assumption models are "coming back to the west". The Euro is essentially unchanged, maybe a little colder and slightly east of 00z, the GFS is west of 6z but that solution going way OTS meant that it basically had no choice but to come west. Uk is east and the GGEM is essentially unchanged. Inland locations are looking good but I don't see too much of a western trend today, maybe I'm crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiqqa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 be careful with your assumption models are "coming back to the west". The Euro is essentially unchanged, maybe a little colder and slightly east of 00z, the GFS is west of 6z but that solution going way OTS meant that it basically had no choice but to come west. Uk is east and the GGEM is essentially unchanged. Inland locations are looking good but I don't see too much of a western trend today, maybe I'm crazy. yesterday, wasnt the euro ots? seems like it came back a lot more west today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Id be very skeptical of taking this as a 30 hour storm, how often does that happen...also counting on backlash snows often is not wise Exactly ! We haven't had a 30 hour storm all winter - the Blizzard in Dec was only about 15 hours in most places. Backlash snows are not the norm in NYC metro for the most part. Also do any of these models take into account the snowcover we have and the cold water ocean temps and also dynamics ??? IMO as long as this thing stays off the coast climatology favors frozen during late Jan - early - mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Id be very skeptical of taking this as a 30 hour storm, how often does that happen...also counting on backlash snows often is not wise Depends on how slow the storm moves. I agree on 30 hrs being a bit farfetched--- Xmas day after storm was progged to be 30 hours and from first flake to last flake it was 24. Backlash snows can happen however with a slow moving storm; we've seen this several times before-- most notably in the Xmas 2002 storm. We've been using that analog for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yesterday, wasnt the euro ots? seems like it came back a lot more west today we're talking about run to run continuity here...the 00z run was as west if not further west and warmer than 12z..and I need to throw this out there because I think people tend to thing certain comments are made as wishcasts etc...I'm in a good inland location and I suspect that I see at least 1in qpf frozen with this euro solution so I'd welcome it any day...just discussing how I see this playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 one of the big storms last year was rain to snow wasn't it? Correct, the Feb 26 storm was 1.09 inches of rain to 14 inches of snow here. NYC got all snow and over 20 inches. Nate got 27 inches just north of the city. But that was probably the rarest kind of snowstorm that you can get, a true retrograder partial triple phaser with raging blizzard conditions on southerly winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I agree about being skeptical of a long duration event without a block. But I don't know that I would classify what the Euro is depicting as "backlash" snow, so much as a change over to snow. Yes, that doesn't happen very often in this region, but this storm has drawn comparisons to 2/5/01 and 12/25/02 ... heavy rain events that changed to snow. Not saying that 's going to happen this time, just one of many options on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Qpf for Delaware goes from 1.5 in the West to 2.0 in the east. Delaware is in the Mount Holly Forecast covered area could we get QPF for KILG KDOV KGED Would really appreciate if when giving play by plays these stations could be included. Thanking you kindly in advance. Edit was typing this and AM posted for Delaware Thank you AM Please still include us when doing PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 dec 25th 2002 was probably the heaviest backlash snows ive experienced. it went from rain to rain/snow to heavy wind driven snow in like 30 minutes and got 12 inches in a matter of 5 hours. ive yet to see another storm that intense as far as snowfall rates go here in southwestern suffolk county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Delaware is in the Mount Holly Forecast covered area could we get QPF for KILG KDOV KGED Would really appreciate if when giving play by plays these stations could be included. Thanking you kindly in advance. Edit was typing this and AM posted for Delaware Thank you AM Please still include us when doing PBP precip thru 102 (done for our region) .5 Johnstown, PA, to duboise, PA to Binghampton. NY toSchenecdity, NY in VT .75 somerset, PA to north of State College, Williamsport to Scranton, Albany, NY into souther VT 1" Dc to Harrisburg, PA to Tamaqua to East Stroudsburg, PA to Hudson, NY to VT/MA border 1.25" Richmond, to Elkton, MD to Landsdale, PA to along NW NJ, PA border along Delaware RIver to Kingston, NY to CT/MA border 1.5" Eastpn, MD to Wilmingon, De to just west of PHL to ewing, NJ to NYC, all of LI 1.75 most of Delaware up norther tip to Cherry Hill NJ to Levitown, NJ to Toms River NJ 1.5" south Nj Elmer to Hammonton to ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 we're talking about run to run continuity here...the 00z run was as west if not further west and warmer than 12z..and I need to throw this out there because I think people tend to thing certain comments are made as wishcasts etc...I'm in a good inland location and I suspect that I see at least 1in qpf frozen with this euro solution so I'd welcome it any day...just discussing how I see this playing out. I am not so sure about this....according to the PBP 84- 988 just off the coast of Delmarva, Def tucked into coast more moderate precip making much further NW back to state college up to Albany So i would definitely say that with the bold highlighted above it sounds to me like its more west. Yesterday this model was not exactly what i call OTS but it went well east with the QPF shield..... The only model that essentially remains an outlier at this point is the GFS with it being east the way it is... Still think this is going to be 50 miles or less off the coast and a heavy snow inland and snow to rain to snow in the big cities,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 2/5/01 though if I recall was all based on surface temps/elevation. I remember MMU hovering between 32-33 all day and snowing while EWR while 34 and rain. Eventually everyone went over to heavy wet snow by mid to late afternoon. I don't recall the forecast being for much snow at all for coastal areas and along the I95 corridor. Was an unimaginably horrible commute as the worst of it was at the height of the evening commute and most people were not ready for it. I agree about being skeptical of a long duration event without a block. But I don't know that I would classify what the Euro is depicting as "backlash" snow, so much as a change over to snow. Yes, that doesn't happen very often in this region, but this storm has drawn comparisons to 2/5/01 and 12/25/02 ... heavy rain events that changed to snow. Not saying that 's going to happen this time, just one of many options on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I am not so sure about this....according to the PBP So i would definitely say that with the bold highlighted above it sounds to me like its more west. Yesterday this model was not exactly what i call OTS but it went well east with the QPF shield..... The only model that essentially remains an outlier at this point is the GFS with it being east the way it is... Still think this is going to be 50 miles or less off the coast and a heavy snow inland and snow to rain to snow in the big cities,,, Might actually be rain to snow rather than snow-rain-snow because of the delay in the precip. Look at Xmas 2002 for a possible analog. Strengthening just offshore favors that kind of situation. I would cut back the 30 hr scenario to more of an 18-24 hr storm, which would give the coast about 6 hours of snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiqqa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 we're talking about run to run continuity here...the 00z run was as west if not further west and warmer than 12z..and I need to throw this out there because I think people tend to thing certain comments are made as wishcasts etc...I'm in a good inland location and I suspect that I see at least 1in qpf frozen with this euro solution so I'd welcome it any day...just discussing how I see this playing out. no wishcasting here, im just going off of what i hear from JB and henry m in that from what they said on friday. itll come back more west, the normal model waffling, gfs came west a tad, euro came back west w the 00z and 12z. idk about the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it seems if theres any good news to be taken away at this point is the high that was just offshore in older runs is now so far offshore that it will have much less effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Reading through all these posts, there seems to be a trend that no one is mentioning(or maybe I missed it). For the past couple of days the trends. You all mentioned the near BM placement. The timing has been gradually slowing (or so it seems) as each day passes. Finally, we seem to be getting colder and colder solutions as time goes by. So if these trends continue, I'd think its reasonable that we'd be looking at more of a snowstorm area wide. Especially with that HP building in creating a more northerly instead of easterly flow area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 no wishcasting here, im just going off of what i hear from JB and henry m in that from what they said on friday. itll come back more west, the normal model waffling, gfs came west a tad, euro came back west w the 00z and 12z. idk about the other models. 12z Euro is East of 0z despite 0z being west of yesterday's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12Z EURO Precip maps (Free today on ECMWF.int: http://ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!96!North%20America!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2011012312!!/ That would be one hell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 no wishcasting here, im just going off of what i hear from JB and henry m in that from what they said on friday. itll come back more west, the normal model waffling, gfs came west a tad, euro came back west w the 00z and 12z. idk about the other models. I just browsed over the 00z and the positions are off because the timing is slower, but it appears that at the higher latitudes it is in fact further west (50 miles east of cape may) but the 00z started further west and brought more warm air with it, even though the eventual position was a little further east. At least thats my amateur analysis. But the west shift from 00z is IMO nothing significant, maybe 50 miles or so and it is infact colder so I welcome that solution. On the topic of Henry M and JB, I'd listen to the pro mets analysis on here before I'd listen to them, Henry M is having an awful winter in terms of getting these storms right and JB has great analysis but he isn't doing great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiqqa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z Euro is East of 0z despite 0z being west of yesterday's 12z. wasnt the 0z warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Reading through all these posts, there seems to be a trend that no one is mentioning(or maybe I missed it). For the past couple of days the trends. You all mentioned the near BM placement. The timing has been gradually slowing (or so it seems) as each day passes. Finally, we seem to be getting colder and colder solutions as time goes by. So if these trends continue, I'd think its reasonable that we'd be looking at more of a snowstorm area wide. Especially with that HP building in creating a more northerly instead of easterly flow area-wide. To me this is the key issue and not giving that some merit by folks who want the hug the coast track that was being shown on the Euro prior to yesterday are wishcasting. The question is will the HP building in/and or the Low pulls in the cold get here/happen in time and have the impact needed to keep rain anywhere in the effected region out of the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 wasnt the 0z warm? Verbatim yes, but the point is it was warmer than today's 12z and the track of the storm at all levels was west of what today's 12z is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Qpf for Delaware goes from 1.5 in the West to 2.0 in the east. Are you messing with me? our state is about 25 miles west to east in the North and maybe 60 in the southern most portion? Maybe you meant North to South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 To me this is the key issue and not giving that some merit by folks who want the hug the coast track that was being shown on the Euro prior to yesterday are wishcasting. The question is will the HP buiilding in get here in time to keep rain anywhere in the effected region out of the equation. ya and it seems like every subsequent model run the storm is pushed back a little. With that northern stream energy diving in behind it with that nice HP we are getting to a point where the warm air might be squashed just in time for I-95. Is it likely at this point? I don't think it is likely but based on the trends that kind of solution has to be given some merit, and this is even if the low takes a track similar to the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ya and it seems like every subsequent model run the storm is pushed back a little. With that northern stream energy diving in behind it with that nice HP we are getting to a point where the warm air might be squashed just in time for I-95. Is it likely at this point? I don't think it is likely but based on the trends that kind of solution has to be given some merit, and this is even if the low takes a track similar to the euro... Just to show I am not some snow weenie, I agree 100% that the likelihood of keeping rain out of the equation in this setup east of I-95 is a big question mark still at this point. 50-50 at best. Also important is to watch how much easter/southeasterly winds impact the area prior to the storm and for how long. I will be tracking wind direction starting Monday Night probably until the storm starts, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just to show I am not some snow weenie, I agree 100% that the likelihood of keeping rain out of the equation in this setup east of I-95 is a big question mark still at this point. 50-50 at best. Im feeling better and better about little to no pure rain out of this system, from just west of 95 and further west. Really only 1 model (GGEM) indicates that, EURO shows minimal/no pure rain west of 95, and all other models have none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Something that really hasn't been discussed here since everyone is worried about temps. and precip. types is the coastal, wind, and flooding issues. I would think with the current snow pack on the ground and the recent very cold temperatures causing a frozen ground we could have some flooding issues with whatever precip. falls as liquid. Also, what are the winds looking like with this storm and what kind of coastal impacts might we see in terms on coastal flooding etc.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just to show I am not some snow weenie, I agree 100% that the likelihood of keeping rain out of the equation east of I-95 is a big question mark still at this point. 50-50 at best. Its the trends to look at right....Not take every model run verbatum....which, it seems too many people are doing.Colder, slower....and if this continues probably snowier as the days are going by. Now I'm not just saying that because I live on the coast either, when I saw rain I said rain....just want to clear that up also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Something that really hasn't been discussed here since everyone is worried about temps. and precip. types is the coastal, wind, and flooding issues. I would think with the current snow pack on the ground and the recent very cold temperatures causing a frozen ground we could have some flooding issues with whatever precip. falls as liquid. Also, what are the winds looking like with this storm and what kind of coastal impacts might we see in terms on coastal flooding etc.?? I mean unless the far western solutions (GGEM) occur, I doubt there is much flooding, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 By the way...Euro has a huge snowstorm impacting the Mid Atlantic at 240 hours with a nice signal and a surface low off the GA coast..about to impact the entire area with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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