blazess556 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All snow for places like K12N and KFWN. Very close to snow at places like KCDW and KTEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 since no one can seem to be on the same page with the PBP I'm going to take a stab at what I've heard...so it starts out a little warm with some mod precip then 850's crash and liquid goes over to frozen with ample time for some good accums? (NYC metro) Yes. Your description also describes the Philly metro. In both metros, the changeover happens from west to east, so there will be more snow in the NW burbs than the cities and the cities will have more snow than those south and east of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 EC DAY 3-4 TRACK (color fill is D3, lines D4): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 1 in qpf for KMPO all snow. .6 all snow for KUNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A benchmark track is becoming apparent, and temperatures will have to be monitored, so keep an eye on following NAM/GFS runs. EURO tends to be a bit warm typically. I would venture to say from NYC N and W this has the potential to be a significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 IMBY posts are being deleted. Please stop posting them. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All snow for places like K12N and KFWN Yeah, Andover and Sparta should do great with this. As for NYC, looks like 18 hours of rain to 12 hours of snow if this works out (hr 72 - hr 90 rain hr 90 - hr 102 snow) I remember the Euro has an issue being slow with moving out storms so we have to be skeptical of a 30 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Rain to snow for coastal plain. Heavy snow further northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How do surface temperatures look like for the region? The 0z run looked cold despite somewhat warm 850s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Depends on the location. Looks like NYC gets about 6 inches on the back end. All snow line runs about 40 miles NW of NYC and Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, Andover and Sparta should do great with this. As for NYC, looks like 18 hours of rain to 12 hours of snow if this works out (hr 72 - hr 90 rain hr 90 - hr 102 snow) I remember the Euro has an issue being slow with moving out storms so we have to be skeptical of a 30 hour event. Looks like hr 72-84 are the big question mark. Need more insight about where the critical layers are at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How do surface temperatures look like for the region? The 0z run looked cold despite somewhat warm 850s... Most places are right around 32-33. highest knyc get is 34.7 degress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Surface temps? Sounds like all people are describing are 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Depends on the location. Looks like NYC gets about 6 inches on the back end. All snow line runs about 40 miles NW of NYC and Philly It apparent that the track is towards the BM. Now we have to try and detrmine where does the cold set up and what bias' all these models may have. The GFS ironically has been great the last few big storms and steady on this one. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 IMBY posts are being deleted. Please stop posting them. Thanks. What are thoughts on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Most places are right around 32-33. highest knyc get is 34.7 degress. Up in New England thread indicated a lot of sleet along coast (BOS) for instance with Snow on either side of that, with quite cold surface temps through storm. Would think around I-95 here would be similar...12z EURO looks a little SE and a touch colder than 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It apparent that the track is towards the BM. Now we have to try and detrmine where does the cold set up and what bias' all these models may have. The GFS ironically has been great the last few big storms and steady on this one. Rossi Guess you didn't see the 6z run, GFS was WAY OTS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Seeing just text, starts as a little snow NYC Wed about 7am, quickly to rain, 850s rise as high as almost +2º Wednesday evening, about eight tenths rain, then sometime about halfway between 7 pm and 1am, 850s go below freezing, surface barely above freezing, half an inch liquid, maybe half rain, half snow, and a final half inch liquid that falls as snow, although surface remains above freezing. Strictly going on 850 mb and surface temps for snow/rain calls, I can't see forecast soundings yet. Temps at height of the rain barely above freezing, actually rise a tad, almost to 35ºF during the last six hours when precip is falling and 850s below freezing. LGA for the test data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It apparent that the track is towards the BM. Now we have to try and detrmine where does the cold set up and what bias' all these models may have. The GFS ironically has been great the last few big storms and steady on this one. Rossi Agree. The track on this storm looks pretty apparent that it is a BM track. The other pieces need to be ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 At 72-84 hrs the 0-850 line and surface freezing line (the furthest northwest they go) are very close and run from just north of Allentown (just south of the Poconos to Stroudsburg, then through N Warren County and SE Sussex County, through N Passaic County, to about 20 miles north of NYC. After 84 hrs they crash rapidly SE and off shore by 90 hrs. The only exception to this is between 78-84 hrs prior to the crash SE of the 850 line, it does sag south of ABE, so at some point just after 78 hours and before 84 hours it would be all snow in the Lehigh Valley, then it rapidly crashes off shore. Looks like hr 72-84 are the big question mark. Need more insight about where the critical layers are at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Some GFS (color fill) - EC (lines) comparison on D3 & D4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What are thoughts on the euro? The 12z Euro is close to the synoptic forecast I've had out since Friday. With little blocking and the H5 low going negative tilt early across the Deep South, the eventual track of the low should be closer to the coast/farther inland than what we've seen over the last two winters. I don't think I am alone in those ideas amongst the red taggers here, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 precip thru 102 (done for our region) .5 Johnstown, PA, to duboise, PA to Binghampton. NY toSchenecdity, NY in VT .75 somerset, PA to north of State College, Williamsport to Scranton, Albany, NY into souther VT 1" Dc to Harrisburg, PA to Tamaqua to East Stroudsburg, PA to Hudson, NY to VT/MA border 1.25" Richmond, to Elkton, MD to Landsdale, PA to along NW NJ, PA border along Delaware RIver to Kingston, NY to CT/MA border 1.5" Eastpn, MD to Wilmingon, De to just west of PHL to ewing, NJ to NYC, all of LI 1.75 most of Delaware up norther tip to Cherry Hill NJ to Levitown, NJ to Toms River NJ 1.5" south Nj Elmer to Hammonton to ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 12z Euro is close to the synoptic forecast I've had out since Friday. With little blocking and the H5 low going negative tilt early across the Deep South, the eventual track of the low should be closer to the coast/farther inland than what we've seen over the last two winters. I don't think I am alone in those ideas amongst the red taggers here, either. As per climo, 50 miles will make all the difference....push that low 50 miles east, maybe less, and its all snow save the immediate coast and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Id be very skeptical of taking this as a 30 hour storm, how often does that happen...also counting on backlash snows often is not wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 a compromise track between the NAM/GFS/EURO/UKMET is actually about as good as you could expect from this situation around I-95 corridor. Granted the track(and therefore temp profile) may end up being closer to 1 model as opposed to a compromise between the 4, but strictly standing from where we are and how much is still to be decided I dont think thats a bad compromise. Inland areas probably get hit very hard but the western extent of the precip may be less than what some in this thread want. Generally I like the trends this afternoon though and I believe this is going to be a widespread 6+ in snowstorm for everyone (even for some coastal locales) with some huge snows just west of the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiqqa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looks as if everyone was right who said models would waffle back and forth and eventually come back to the west. still a few more days to go but things are definitely getting better, especially with it drawing closer and closer to the storm time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, this is what many of you mets have been saying. Many of you have stuck to your guns including DT and JB. You all called this to a T if it plays out like this. The 12z Euro is close to the synoptic forecast I've had out since Friday. With little blocking and the H5 low going negative tilt early across the Deep South, the eventual track of the low should be closer to the coast/farther inland than what we've seen over the last two winters. I don't think I am alone in those ideas amongst the red taggers here, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Id be very skeptical of taking this as a 30 hour storm, how often does that happen...also counting on backlash snows often is not wise Very good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 total precip, N NJ 1.25-1.50 S NJ 1.75-2.50 NYC about 1.50 1.00 back to ABE and Harrisburg. 1.50-1.75 for Philly .75 back to Altoona and up to Scranton. Delaware is in the Mount Holly Forecast covered area could we get QPF for KILG KDOV KGED Would really appreciate if when giving play by plays these stations could be included. Thanking you kindly in advance. Edit was typing this and AM posted for Delaware Thank you AM Please still include us when doing PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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