_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We need this kicker energy to weaken or back off so our main vort can ride up closer to the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z ukie at 96 hours seems in line with gfs. trying to upload map rotates but here it is sideways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 6z data definitely was messed up on the models. NOGAPS is also coming in much more amplified vs. previous run which was out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NOGAPS at 90 and 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I actually like where the GFS is right now. Plenty of time and room for improvement. If the trough were more negatively-tilted this would have a better chance at coming further north, yet still remain cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 TheTrials, fixed the image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 UKMET is way out to sea in comparison to the previous run. TheTrials, fixed the image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Let me preface this by saying what happens IMBY, I really don't care. I'm on the 'bring on spring' bandwagon...lots of seats left at this time. Looking at the 3 main models out at 12z and knowing the trends of the models and the seasonal ones, you have to expect the models to pull this back west till about 18 hours before the event when they slide east alittle. Watch for them to happen at 0z tonight. The people on the coast need to realize how lucky they have been the past 2 winters and not every storm will bring you a foot of snow. I still believe this is more likely a slop storm for I-95 with more rain along the coast and more snow up through I-81. That kicker might just get involved into the system and make this a strong storm that rides along the coast. A lot to watch the next 24 hours alone and I'm sure we're not done then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thanks for flipping the ukmet miami. And its good the ukmet is out to sea like that as it has been way too ots this year on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 IMO, the 12z GFS may reflect the beginnings of a trend that will bring more significant precipitation farther west. Comparison of 48-hour Precipitation on the 6z and 12z runs of the GFS: The reasonably consistent ECMWF ensemble mean at 96 hours (1/23/2011 0z run): The 12z Nam seemed somewhat in line for a track reasonably close to the aforementioned ensemble mean. The NAM was slower, as was the GFS. Hence, the timing of the storm could be slower than originally indicated. 1/23/2011 12z NAM at 72 hours through 84 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 IMO, the 12z GFS may reflect the beginnings of a trend that will bring more significant precipitation farther west. Comparison of 48-hour Precipitation on the 6z and 12z runs of the GFS: The reasonably consistent ECMWF ensemble mean at 96 hours (1/23/2011 0z run): The 12z Nam seemed somewhat in line for a track reasonably close to the aforementioned ensemble mean. The NAM was slower, as was the GFS. Hence, the timing of the storm could be slower than originally indicated. 1/23/2011 12z NAM at 72 hours through 84 hours: Agree Don. Said it a few lines back, there is room for the gfs to come back and still be cold and I think the euro ensemble mean is the way to go right now blended with the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ensembles of the GGEM/Euro and GFS have had a track close to the Benchmark for a few days. That's definitely an item to pay attention to, although it's going to take a lot to get heavy snow at the coast this time due to the lack of a really cold air source. But maybe it's possible-it's the coldest time of the year and we have snow cover everywhere. If this were 12/26, I think it would be rain without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I agree with your thoughts and think we have a storm here, probably mostly if not all snow. Look for the the models to come back closer to the coast (not as far west as originially) tonight and tomorrow and the slower solutions seem more reasonable at this time. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEM at 60 is still quite amplified. Definately not OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Man. What the heck is the CMC smoking. It almost has it over the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 YUP, ggem is def. amped up and very warm. Not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Canadian apparently holds serve. Actually further inland. Get your boats now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Where are you located? Being a red tag met, you probably should have your location in your profile. That way we can get a better gauge on your thoughts with regard to our individual locations. NYC, he has a blog that he regularly updates (sorry for the external link): http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEFS mean is coming in pretty warm. Its got a BM track and cools down over the big cities as it passed but starts warm, not surprising. Haven't seen 850 yet, just looking at thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEM doesn't really have a kicker, thus the more amp'ed up system....that is something that is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEFS mean is coming in pretty warm. Not really. 84 hrs on the GEFS is pretty. The low is stronger then the 00z means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Surface pressures are lower on the means that could indicate more consensus among the members of a track just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not really. 84 hrs on the GEFS is pretty. The low is stronger the 00z means. Agreed.. 850s look below zero, surface looks ok also.. Definitely came in wetter too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Read my edited comment, was just looking at thicknesses but yet 850 is fine, off the coast. Makes sense given the OP was probably too flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS mean is NW of the operational and is similar to the Euro operational. .50 precip line from Harrisburg to Scranton. .75 from just NW of of Philly, Trenton and NW of NYC. 1.00 along the coast and eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I would expect the OP GFS to slowly tick northwest the next couple of runs until it is near its ensembles track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ensembles of the GGEM/Euro and GFS have had a track close to the Benchmark for a few days. That's definitely an item to pay attention to, although it's going to take a lot to get heavy snow at the coast this time due to the lack of a really cold air source. But maybe it's possible-it's the coldest time of the year and we have snow cover everywhere. If this were 12/26, I think it would be rain without a doubt. I'd say the best critical thickness value we may need to be looking at is the1000-700mb 2840 line with this storm. 850 zero line well displaced SE on the GFS run, while 1000-500mb 540 line NW... Either way, surface temps may still only be marginal along the NJ coast to support mostly snow...even if GFS verified (which still may be biased slightly SE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Agreed.. 850s look below zero, surface looks ok also.. Definitely came in wetter too! it's faster than the OP as well...while some are thinking a slower storm this run may be suspicious although I think the track is what most are liking right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Spag. plots show many deep members NW of the OP but do not see any inland solutions. Close to the coast yes, but no apps runners so to speak. Can't wait for the individuals 925 temp charts show ne wind down the coast, which is good. Temps are at or below 0c on the blended mean. The only thing that looks a little warm is the thicknesses but its snow verbatum along the I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ensemble mean 850's only get above freezing in SE NJ. Everyone else remains below 0 at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.