Radders Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As we look at the energy consolidating further south, back up here, it looks like a light snow event thru much of the day on tuesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 54 hrs still has more energy digging into the trough. This is definitely going to be at least somewhat better than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The digging into the gulf which was such a menace two days ago is now an ally. It slows down the whole progression of the southern energy allowing the setup over the northeast to potentially turn more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looks to close off along the gulf coast....lots of moisture!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wants to close off at H5 at 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 More amplified that 06z GFS but less amplified than 12z NAM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anyone notice how there's a weak high pressure developing over the Northeast while the storm is developing over the SE? If it trends stronger this storm is suddenly better for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 500 mb closes off at 66 hrs. near New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 gfs looks s and e of the NAM. The northern energy would help bring this up but they look out of synch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 interesting plum of precip up the EC out ahead of the main low.....its JUUST offshore, but is it feedback or is it legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 78 hrs. precip shield up to Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, this an epic gulf event loaded with moisture on the 60 hour panel. Waiting to for it to turn the corner now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Precip shield to NYC at 84 hrs. Sub 992 NE of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 .10 to Asbury Park at 87 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 .10 near NYC at 90 hrs. .25 close to Asbury Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 93 hrs. coastal areas and eastern LI get a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 close but never gets far enough north to impact much of the region. Its def. cold enough to snow over the nyc area much little precip for it. Intrestesting to see the ensembles as they were wetter on 6z than the OP which was south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 90hr GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Pretty much just grazes the cities through 90 hrs., but 850s look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So much for worrying about a cold air source. There is now a 1029 High centered over SE Ontario at 90 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This run isn't the greatest thing in the world but probably offers some insight on the best-case scenario for the coast. The low placement might not even matter if the high continues to build in, hope this comes west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Decent amount of precip on the cold side of the low at 90 and 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wondering if this makes sense to anyone: That's exactly what I envisioned when I saw the map just above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What are you trying to say? Wondering if this makes sense to anyone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Actually, there is more room now for this to come further north and not be trouble for the cities because of the flow into the storm and the new cold air. If the gfs was closer to the coast, it would probably still be snow for the big cities especially with the dynamics. Will be very telling if the gefs are juicier because Im feeling the gfs is too south and east with the surface low over the gulf and in these situations with latent heat release the surface low could easily be more on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That kicker vort at 90... ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 total precip.this run vs. previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yea...850s look good. wouldnt this be BIG snows for RIC, DCA and BALT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This run isn't the greatest thing in the world but probably offers some insight on the best-case scenario for the coast. The low placement might not even matter if the high continues to build in, hope this comes west. Great run IMHO. GFS did nudge north/west with the low/precip (and that should continue), but more importantly really cooling the whole enviornment down. By hour 84 on pretty cold all around....I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 interesting plum of precip up the EC out ahead of the main low.....its JUUST offshore, but is it feedback or is it legit? It's that precip shield along the east coast, out ahead of everything hours 48 to 60, the same precip shield that the Friday GFS runs formed into that stalling low pressure off Delmarva/NJ coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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