Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 8:53 AM, tombo82685 said: at hr 84 it seriously just misses phasing in the the northenr stream coming down from the pv... Ya I was going to ask about this...if it phases wouldn't that mean we have more cold air to work with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 well the dgex will tell us in like 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 8:54 AM, Kaner587 said: Ya I was going to ask about this...if it phases wouldn't that mean we have more cold air to work with? probably, it would also mean prob a due north track or a hugger...im not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 8:55 AM, tombo82685 said: probably, it would also mean prob a due north track or a hugger...im not sure. unless it waited to phase until its reached the coast, but that is a textbook thread the needle right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i think as we have seen, not just from the nam, we want this to slow down. Maybe catch an off road stop in Louisiana, take a couple shots of moonshine then eject out. Give a little more opportunity for the cold to ooze in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't you all feel that we are just in this typical lost range of the models? It seems they always have the storms at 5-6 days out and then lose them until 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 8:53 AM, tombo82685 said: at hr 84 it seriously just misses phasing in the the northenr stream coming down from the pv... Not sure if it missed the phase yet... . the new northern vort still not passed it... :X Could link up a bit later... on in the run! (Dgex... ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 8:57 AM, Kaner587 said: unless it waited to phase until its reached the coast, but that is a textbook thread the needle right there. well we will see what the dgex will show. The hr 84 nam looks decent with the cold air coming down, that may help scoot it a little east and help draw in the cold to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ggem ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 dgex ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well it missed the phase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lets see what the gfs throws at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's literally a miracle I am still coherent and posting right now...winter rocks. One thing remarkable about this winter has been the barrage of threats. We haven't gone 7 days without a threat of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:34 AM, earthlight said: It's literally a miracle I am still coherent and posting right now...winter rocks. One thing remarkable about this winter has been the barrage of threats. We haven't gone 7 days without a threat of snow. yea i agree....my late nights are getting numbered, down to 7 right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And there is another threat just waiting to track after this is said and done (according to some ;p ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:34 AM, earthlight said: It's literally a miracle I am still coherent and posting right now...winter rocks. One thing remarkable about this winter has been the barrage of threats. We haven't gone 7 days without a threat of snow. Only reason I am up is to watch tennis. The weather is always a nice additional treat. Weather rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:36 AM, Inudaw said: And there is another threat just waiting to track after this is said in done (according to some ;p ) yea dt is already blowing the horn for feb 1 and 2nd time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:35 AM, tombo82685 said: yea i agree....my late nights are getting numbered, down to 7 right now... 9 days here... but the thing is, my professor has already emailed me the syllabus together with a couple of readings and exercises... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:36 AM, Inudaw said: And there is another threat just waiting to track after this is said and done (according to some ;p ) I am pretty amped for the Saskatchewan Screamer threat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:37 AM, patrick05 said: 9 days here... but the thing is, my professor has already emailed me the syllabus together with a couple of readings and exercises... back to work here....i wish i was still in college. My college sleeping schedule was how i am now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:35 AM, tombo82685 said: yea i agree....my late nights are getting numbered, down to 7 right now... They dont really bother me...I have to be up 8am most of the time ( not tomorrow obviously) but I can run well on 6 hrs. Especially if snow is involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:39 AM, earthlight said: They dont really bother me...I have to be up 8am most of the time ( not tomorrow obviously) but I can run well on 6 hrs. Especially if snow is involved when i go back to wor im up at 530am. So if there is a threat ill do the euro, then go through the day on 3.5 hrs of sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:37 AM, baroclinic_instability said: I am pretty amped for the Saskatchewan Screamer threat next week. Same..it is kinda discouraging to see the lack of blocking on longer range ensemble means, though. The GEFS at 12 and 18z had a massive trough and negative height anomalies over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:40 AM, tombo82685 said: when i go back to wor im up at 530am. So if there is a threat ill do the euro, then go through the day on 3.5 hrs of sleep Jesus..you sure you don't want to pay 250 a month for the euro ensembles and just pull an all nighter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:41 AM, earthlight said: Jesus..you sure you don't want to pay 250 a month for the euro ensembles and just pull an all nighter? hahaha, like you said when snow is in the forecast its like you get a 3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:40 AM, earthlight said: Same..it is kinda discouraging to see the lack of blocking on longer range ensemble means, though. The GEFS at 12 and 18z had a massive trough and negative height anomalies over Greenland. dt posted on his fb, the euro day 6-10 was redeveloping the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:41 AM, earthlight said: Jesus..you sure you don't want to pay 250 a month for the euro ensembles and just pull an all nighter? Uh--is it seriously that much? That is insane! 24 hr Euro is good enough most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 through hr 42 the gfs is less aggressive with the northern stream. Looks to be hanging back the energy and elongating everything kind of like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 9:48 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Uh--is it seriously that much? That is insane! 24 hr Euro is good enough most of the time. Yes...it's absolutely absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 jeez, whatever the nam saw at 6z the gfs sniffed it to...the h5 difference is wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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