earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro ensembles running and out through 36 hrs... lots of 's here tonight on the Sat night overnight crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro ensembles running and out through 36 hrs... lots of 's here tonight on the Sat night overnight crew. The weenie crew is alive and well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The weenie crew is alive and well. I've been waiting for you to get on in here...you know there's a storm threat when I see you browsing. How've you been bud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 heres the 3z sref mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 03z SREF's have gone completely east towards the earlier GFS scraper solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The mean SLP is still a great track, though...so I would assume the 03z SREFs would be pretty good for the immediate burbs and areas closer to the shore than the 00z runs..that's a pretty flat solution aloft. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/03/images/sref_bsp_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 00z Euro ensemble mean is amplified through 78 hours..surface low is inland over the Carolinas at that time. Snowstorm for DC at that hour, too...with precip back that way. The 850 line runs from Cape May southwest ..south of DC and BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 03z SREF's have gone completely east towards the earlier GFS scraper solutions. Honestly I really wouldn't mind that solution instead of plain rain and wait for a more favorable set-up to come about all the while avoiding a soaker and a disastrous loss in snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I've been waiting for you to get on in here...you know there's a storm threat when I see you browsing. How've you been bud? Good man. I had been hanging in the MA since I saw the PSUHoffman (PSU is the best non-met poster I know of in terms of meteorological understanding) storm thread, but I have been paying attention. This is an odd one, to say the least. I am also tracking a Northern Plains thumping arctic front, but that is a big boom/bust type event. How did your last snowfall pan out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 84 hours the surface low is sub 1000mb between OC, MD and OBX. 850 0c line is now running over or just east of DC and BWI..just south of PHL to Central Monmouth Co, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 90 hours the surface low is sub 996 mb ..well Northeast of Ocean City, MD. 850 temps are warm..running from PHL through NYC. Plenty of precipitation. Looks like the OP but slightly de-amplified and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 84 hours the surface low is sub 1000mb between OC, MD and OBX. 850 0c line is now running over or just east of DC and BWI..just south of PHL to Central Monmouth Co, NJ. thats pretty close to the gefs mean track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good man. I had been hanging in the MA since I saw the PSUHoffman (PSU is the best non-met poster I know of in terms of meteorological understanding) storm thread, but I have been paying attention. This is an odd one, to say the least. I am also tracking a Northern Plains thumping arctic front, but that is a big boom/bust type event. How did your last snowfall pan out? We got around 4 inches with that last event a few days ago, and 10 inches before that...so I'm at 49.3" on the season now which is really awesome. This upcoming storm is such a crap shoot on guidance right now, it's really laughable..but it's definitely going to be too warm for the coast if you ask me. The antecedent airmass is completely washed away by the low level SE flow that develops when the high pressure slides east. Relying on the low pressure's dynamics is not where you want to be when you live close to the coast. Anybody with elevation and some distance from the water should be excited, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 thats pretty close to the gefs mean track. Warmer, though..the 850 line is northwest of the GEFS, but southeast of the ECMWF OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Warmer, though..the 850 line is northwest of the GEFS, but southeast of the ECMWF OP. yea in that regard, but the track seems close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Warmer, though..the 850 line is northwest of the GEFS, but southeast of the ECMWF OP. you might want to include epa in your topic, they have been shafted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 By the way, that's an incredible shift on the SREFS...it must have lost all the amplified members or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 you might want to include epa in your topic, they have been shafted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 just glancing at the nam here at 3:14 am...Seems to be holding more energy back towards the SW and slower at 39hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BTW--why aren't you in Seattle Earth? You are a student! You should be out there partying and watching 15 minute poster presentations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 eta at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So far @ H5 the NAM looks quite a bit less amplified compared to 00z: EDIT: I take that back looking @ later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 just glancing at the nam here at 3:14 am...Seems to be holding more energy back towards the SW and slower at 39hr Yeah if that trough elongates too much--the developing southern PV max will be too small and will precipitate itself out with height rises and a weaker overall upper low as it crawls up the coast. Too much digging isn't necessarily good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We got around 4 inches with that last event a few days ago, and 10 inches before that...so I'm at 49.3" on the season now which is really awesome. This upcoming storm is such a crap shoot on guidance right now, it's really laughable..but it's definitely going to be too warm for the coast if you ask me. The antecedent airmass is completely washed away by the low level SE flow that develops when the high pressure slides east. Relying on the low pressure's dynamics is not where you want to be when you live close to the coast. Anybody with elevation and some distance from the water should be excited, though. If this threat works out the way the EURO currently implies that it will, I'm going to start a 1995-96 chase....just wipped out my old weenie calendars with day-to-day notes and this would put me on par with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 just glancing at the nam here at 3:14 am...Seems to be holding more energy back towards the SW and slower at 39hr yea it deff is holding more back, this might be slower . by the time this happens it may be friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 BTW--why aren't you in Seattle Earth? You are a student! You should be out there partying and watching 15 minute poster presentations. I had plane tickets bought and all that, but my mom has been pretty sick the past week or two so I had to pull out at the last moment. It sucks..I was really looking forward to it. But some things are priorities..nothing you can really do. Things have taken a turn for the better the past few days--so that's good news at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BTW--why aren't you in Seattle Earth? You are a student! You should be out there partying and watching 15 minute poster presentations. Don't encourage him, we need him here posting four panel plots that will show trends of all snow in NE NJ for this storm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 If this threat works out the way the EURO currently implies that it will, I'm going to start a 1995-96 chase....just wipped out my old weenie calendars with day-to-day notes and this would would me on par with it. I thought I had reached a mini ceiling last year, but I am 8 inches from last years total. Things have found their way of working out this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I thought I had reached a mini ceiling last year, but I am 8 inches from last years total. Things have found their way of working out this winter. I foregive last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I had plane tickets bought and all that, but my mom has been pretty sick the past week or two so I had to pull out at the last moment. It sucks..I was really looking forward to it. But some things are priorities..nothing you can really do. Things have taken a turn for the better the past few days--so that's good news at least. Well glad to here she is doing better, and good man--glad to hear you stayed back too. There are many more conferences to attend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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