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Here comes February 2011


BullCityWx

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Worst summer ever. It was by far the most humid summer I ever remember. Suffocating humidity. I would not mind skipping June-August this year and just move from May to September. Is there anything better than that first big cold front after a long hot summer ?

It was pathetic for too long and you are right. I love that first real cold front of the fall. Nothing like it!

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Not so sure if this may have affected the sustained negative NAO over the past 12 months. Anyway it's set to blow again according to the article posted below. Look for the link.

Icelandic volcano 'set to erupt'

Scientists in Iceland are warning that another volcano looks set to erupt and threatening to spew-out a pall of dust that would dwarf last year's event.

http://www.telegraph...t-to-erupt.html

Also found this article for you Georgia "DAWGS"

Georgia eyes coldest winter ever

http://southeastfarm...est-winter-ever

coldest January since 1994 in USA

http://www.ncdc.noaa...ch/cag3/na.html

Calling me a Dawg is an insult to my intelligence. I went to a real school. I'm not sure who you pull for but it would be like me calling all NC folks Tar Heels. Judging by the Duke comments on here the night before last I'm sure some people wouldn't like that. :gun_bandana:

Rant over. Thanks for the links.

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Why do Alabama, Mississippi, etc... keep posting these Hard Freeze Warnings all winter. They've had cold temperatures all winter long. I'm pretty sure people are prepared at this point. I don't recall seeing one of these from FFC so far.

Yeah, it is a bit ridiculous if you ask me. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Most areas have had 50 or more freezes this winter, and a ton of hard freezes as well. Do they really think the public is that stupid ?

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I enjoy winter storms and tracking those storms but not a big fan of the cold. I actually enjoy summer and the heat it brings. Like strongwxnc, I enjoy all the activities that spring and summer bring (pitchers and catchers reporting 2/14 for the Braves). I'm a shorts and flip flop kind of person but will gladly take one more snowstorm...:thumbsup:

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I enjoy winter storms and tracking those storms but not a big fan of the cold. I actually enjoy summer and the heat it brings. Like strongwxnc, I enjoy all the activities that spring and summer bring (pitchers and catchers reporting 2/14 for the Braves). I'm a shorts and flip flop kind of person but will gladly take one more snowstorm...:thumbsup:

I'm really excited to see how the Braves turn out. Freddy Gonzalez did really good with the little talent he had at Florida. I'm sure he will work wonders with the Braves as well. We just need everyone to stay healthy.

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Flakes and Sleet in Conway, SC currently, kinda a surprise. Radar starting to light up over NE SC coast and Cape Fear NC region.. :weight_lift::rolleyes:

yeah, kind of surprising... MHX put out a sps for the Crystal Coast mentioning some frozen stuff before 10am. 12z NAM puts 1-2" down from about Washington - Ahoskie, and HRRR even has some SN accum here. Given how bad the American guidance blew our non-event for PGV, and much of E NC, nothing would surprise me at this point. MHX says it should be all RN with temps pushing 50 today, but the HRRR shows 850 and 925's below 0C for the day, so we will see.

ptyp_t6sfc_f08.png

not sure why it is showing the blue shading around 2pm today

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Flakes and Sleet in Conway, SC currently, kinda a surprise. Radar starting to light up over NE SC coast and Cape Fear NC region.. :weight_lift::rolleyes:

this was a possibility froma few days ago, a little earlier than thought though. The trough extends from a low off Fl. coast and extends to the SC beaches. Looks like from Ne SC to the coast of NC will be in a period of snow and sleet today.

post-38-0-00392500-1297434949.gif

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No doubt man!! I agree with everything you wrote. Looking forward to the return on baseball!!

I enjoy winter storms and tracking those storms but not a big fan of the cold. I actually enjoy summer and the heat it brings. Like strongwxnc, I enjoy all the activities that spring and summer bring (pitchers and catchers reporting 2/14 for the Braves). I'm a shorts and flip flop kind of person but will gladly take one more snowstorm...:thumbsup:

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this was a possibility froma few days ago, a little earlier than thought though. The trough extends from a low off Fl. coast and extends to the SC beaches. Looks like from Ne SC to the coast of NC will be in a period of snow and sleet today.

post-38-0-00392500-1297434949.gif

yeah we got some good cooling last night before the cloud deck moved in. I told my wife before we went to bed that I wouldn't be surprised if we got a little mixed precip today. Surprise, doubt it'll amount to much though

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Not so sure if this may have affected the sustained negative NAO over the past 12 months. Anyway it's set to blow again according to the article posted below. Look for the link.

Icelandic volcano 'set to erupt'

Scientists in Iceland are warning that another volcano looks set to erupt and threatening to spew-out a pall of dust that would dwarf last year's event.

http://www.telegraph...t-to-erupt.html

Also found this article for you Georgia "DAWGS"

Georgia eyes coldest winter ever

http://southeastfarm...est-winter-ever

coldest January since 1994 in USA

http://www.ncdc.noaa...ch/cag3/na.html

Found this article which states another version of the above.. Interviewed scientist states story has been altered.

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It was 16 here this morning, while Rutherford, just 15 miles to the SE, was 25. I moved here from Miami for the cold and snow. I have been rewarded with record amounts for two winters now. A warm up now and then is great. I love the occasional golf day during these winters. But to cheer on Spring when the dogwood is still six weeks away is not my idea of winter. That's why they invented Florida. You can drive there and play baseball and golf for a long weekend. Here is a pic I made on Miami Beach last week, and another looking toward my mountains from Rutherfordton on Tuesday morning. This is such a wonderful place to live, and cold weather is a large part of it. My A/C bills in Florida were regularly over $220 a month for a normal sized house. Even in ther coldest month since I've lived here. it's never gone over $200, and I use only electric. There is no free lunch, but living in North Carolina is such a pleasant change for this Florida boy.

post-1004-0-10372700-1297436966.jpg

post-1004-0-97121600-1297437005.jpg

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It was 16 here this morning, while Rutherford, just 15 miles to the SE, was 25. I moved here from Miami for the cold and snow. I have been rewarded with record amounts for two winters now. A warm up now and then is great

You moved there just at the right time. If you'd done it much earlier, you'd have been missed out on the winter weather, as its been almost non existent there to Asheville for many years prior to the last 2 Winters, in both the cold and the snow. Good to see it turn around abruptly. Coming up, some way above normal temps next week. First Monday night a backdoor front and weak ridging slides down the east coast to NC with north winds on Tuesday and maybe partly cloudy, cool. Then it slides out for good, and boy does it warm up. We get into Southwest flow for a long time, and the 850's start skyrocketing since the trough digs so far west and the Southeast is under a pretty stout Bermuda ridge for quite some time it appears. Many of us will soar into the 70's unless its totally cloudy, even then it will be warm, but i'm sure a few days there will be some high clouds , others will be totally sunny and very warm. Its coming, the big thaw that we should have already received. Spring Fever will be busting loose hard this time next week. Personally, I'm looking very foward to it, much more than I would a snowstorm. However, I also like the rogue March snowstorm, since its gone the next day or two. Can never rule those out around here. But I think the odds of 3 March's in a row with snow around Ga /Carolinas is pretty remote.

post-38-0-32542100-1297445018.gif

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You moved there just at the right time. If you'd done it much earlier, you'd have been missed out on the winter weather, as its been almost non existent there to Asheville for many years prior to the last 2 Winters, in both the cold and the snow. Good to see it turn around abruptly. Coming up, some way above normal temps next week. First Monday night a backdoor front and weak ridging slides down the east coast to NC with north winds on Tuesday and maybe partly cloudy, cool. Then it slides out for good, and boy does it warm up. We get into Southwest flow for a long time, and the 850's start skyrocketing since the trough digs so far west and the Southeast is under a pretty stout Bermuda ridge for quite some time it appears. Many of us will soar into the 70's unless its totally cloudy, even then it will be warm, but i'm sure a few days there will be some high clouds , others will be totally sunny and very warm. Its coming, the big thaw that we should have already received. Spring Fever will be busting loose hard this time next week. Personally, I'm looking very foward to it, much more than I would a snowstorm. However, I also like the rogue March snowstorm, since its gone the next day or two. Can never rule those out around here. But I think the odds of 3 March's in a row with snow around Ga /Carolinas is pretty remote.

post-38-0-32542100-1297445018.gif

Ugh. I can't help but agree with your sentiments on this. I am guessing the board traffic will die in response as well. Hopefully we get one more parting shot in March but otherwise it was a good run until now. Here is to severe weather season and hoping we have one this year.

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Ugh. I can't help but agree with your sentiments on this. I am guessing the board traffic will die in response as well. Hopefully we get one more parting shot in March but otherwise it was a good run until now. Here is to severe weather season and hoping we have one this year.

This.......hopefully this year we have some really good days, me, WeatherNC and Shaggy are gonna be chomping at the bit to get some good footage and hopefully finally this season our paths will cross and we can get some chase days in together.

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Ugh. I can't help but agree with your sentiments on this. I am guessing the board traffic will die in response as well. Hopefully we get one more parting shot in March but otherwise it was a good run until now. Here is to severe weather season and hoping we have one this year.

*SIGH*.........I will agree also :( Just let it be known that I will NOT welcome any days where temps reach 90 or above BEFORE May. :devilsmiley: I started March of last year in the 90's and it just got worse as the year progressed......ugh.... :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana::angry:

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Have a few "I don't know" what's falling. Not IP, not RN, and not SN, think it is anorexic graupel balls, was unsure at first but then one landed on my head, and after I examined the car roof, looks like small columns, graupel type in nature. Like others have stated, I am ready for Spring... Going to an adv skywarn class here in Greenville this weekend to get certified. Printed out a guide from FFC and am using that as study material. Talked to the Met who runs it from MHX and despite not going to the Basic one (which they did not have in Greenville this year), he said I should be alright and can attend. Looking forward to it very much!

Spring is coming... The buds on the Bradfords are starting to swell, and the birds have been going crazy as of late on the feeders. Have a couple pairs of Northern Flickers that have taken up residence, also saw 3 pairs of Jays today and a couple red-bellied peckers (which actually have a red head not a belly go figure). Not seen a pileated recently, but I can here them in the mornings back in the hardwoods so they are close, and only a matter of time. Tired of everything being dead, and ready to get the garden on!

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You moved there just at the right time. If you'd done it much earlier, you'd have been missed out on the winter weather, as its been almost non existent there to Asheville for many years prior to the last 2 Winters, in both the cold and the snow. Good to see it turn around abruptly. Coming up, some way above normal temps next week. First Monday night a backdoor front and weak ridging slides down the east coast to NC with north winds on Tuesday and maybe partly cloudy, cool. Then it slides out for good, and boy does it warm up. We get into Southwest flow for a long time, and the 850's start skyrocketing since the trough digs so far west and the Southeast is under a pretty stout Bermuda ridge for quite some time it appears. Many of us will soar into the 70's unless its totally cloudy, even then it will be warm, but i'm sure a few days there will be some high clouds , others will be totally sunny and very warm. Its coming, the big thaw that we should have already received. Spring Fever will be busting loose hard this time next week. Personally, I'm looking very foward to it, much more than I would a snowstorm. However, I also like the rogue March snowstorm, since its gone the next day or two. Can never rule those out around here. But I think the odds of 3 March's in a row with snow around Ga /Carolinas is pretty remote.

post-38-0-32542100-1297445018.gif

12z Euro didn't look as warm from what I recall, in fact, it has a cut-off moving through the SE around 144-168. Very strange look to it. Any ideas?

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12z Euro didn't look as warm from what I recall, in fact, it has a cut-off moving through the SE around 144-168. Very strange look to it. Any ideas?

The only two things I see with the 12Z EURO that are different from the 00Z that may be causing it to look cooler is indeed the 500mb trough that moves though the southeast between 144-168. This feature was virtually non-existent in the 00Z run. This would delay, but not stop the warmup as it quickly raises heights to 582dm all the way to Southern Virginia. However, the other thing I see is that the surface high does not move as far to the south on the 12Z versus the 00Z. This makes for a more southerly low-level flow versus southwesterly flow and limit the flow of very warm air from over the southern plain states. This is somewhat of a discontinuity from previous runs so I want to see what the ensembles look like. I posted yesterday that I though the extreme warm air the EURO was showing for the end of next week was overdone. With the bubble of +16 850mb temperatures it was showing across the southeast prior to this latest run we would be talking about many places hitting 80 with sunshine. Righ now I think widespread mid-70's look much more reasonable at this point.

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i will enjoy the warmth but can't wait for our next potential snowstorm, just love reading the experts opinions on here and the tracking of the storm.:snowman: wouldn't surprise me if the mtns don't have a couple of shots at a snowstorm and a couple of northwest snow events.

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Have a few "I don't know" what's falling. Not IP, not RN, and not SN, think it is anorexic graupel balls, was unsure at first but then one landed on my head, and after I examined the car roof, looks like small columns, graupel type in nature. Like others have stated, I am ready for Spring... Going to an adv skywarn class here in Greenville this weekend to get certified. Printed out a guide from FFC and am using that as study material. Talked to the Met who runs it from MHX and despite not going to the Basic one (which they did not have in Greenville this year), he said I should be alright and can attend. Looking forward to it very much!

Spring is coming... The buds on the Bradfords are starting to swell, and the birds have been going crazy as of late on the feeders. Have a couple pairs of Northern Flickers that have taken up residence, also saw 3 pairs of Jays today and a couple red-bellied peckers (which actually have a red head not a belly go figure). Not seen a pileated recently, but I can here them in the mornings back in the hardwoods so they are close, and only a matter of time. Tired of everything being dead, and ready to get the garden on!

I had the same this morning, though-out the day, WeatherNC... just as you..

Bring on Spring!

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Lol. Sure is dead in here. I guess all the folks saying winter's about over, and looking for warm air, aren't so passionate about it as to track the warmth, and model watch the onset of spring :) I suspect it is because everybody knows there is lots more to come and are resting up for the pattern flip to come :) I doubt we can make it out of next week before we have another possible to look at! T

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I had the same this morning, though-out the day, WeatherNC... just as you..

Bring on Spring!

yeah dude, ready for it! Sorry about the other day, have the pm and will chat on that end later. Been busy with school and fell a little behind in the lab this week, as well as in my Cisco course tracking the failboat. MHX issuing the watch was the kiss of death imo, never like seeing that with a marginal event and discrepancies in precip totals between the guidance. System had all the makings of a bust or overachiever, and as is usually the case it underperformed. Looks like a solid period of warmer temps, 10 days plus, which should carry us into the later part of Feb. Only possible event I see on the horizon is a system cutting towards our west in the long range, GFS has had it for a couple runs in the 12-14 day, but way too far out to even give a remote possibility it will happen. Would have liked to seen a little more moisture hear this winter, heading into the growing season that is a concern since soil moisture content is not where I would prefer it to be, especially compared to where we were last year at this point and a dry pattern ahead. Seems like most of what fell this winter was frozen, which pretty to look at, cuts back on overall totals. Last winter we had several heavy front end RN dumps in the warm sector with SN-storms impacting the MA, where this season that really did not happen.

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