FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 zonal flow to a possible southeast ridge is coming up. We may end up getting really above normal, but a lot of times the models overdo it, and already the warmer air this weekend has been delayed some and tempered. But still the warmth should be coming next week. We will have to wait until the last week of February before a pattern change can turn us colder, at the earliest. That may not happen til early March. And who knows if it will be cold enough and line up right to snow again. I do think a strong amplification is def. possible for somewhere though, with a cutoff and possible snow under it. But the truth is this could have been the last snow of the season, but for some I'm sure it wasnt'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Robert i guess those march and april snowstorms we've had in the past kinda produce they're own cold air, is that right? that is why you can get those late winter storms? or early spring snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 zonal flow to a possible southeast ridge is coming up. We may end up getting really above normal, but a lot of times the models overdo it, and already the warmer air this weekend has been delayed some and tempered. But still the warmth should be coming next week. We will have to wait until the last week of February before a pattern change can turn us colder, at the earliest. That may not happen til early March. And who knows if it will be cold enough and line up right to snow again. I do think a strong amplification is def. possible for somewhere though, with a cutoff and possible snow under it. But the truth is this could have been the last snow of the season, but for some I'm sure it wasnt'. I agree and by the time the pattern shifts back to a colder regime it will likely yeild more cold rain then snow given the time of year. We have to face the fact the prime climo time is shot this year. In my view it was still a good winter with the Dec. and January events. I didn't expect anything going in so I was certainly wrong on that. It definitely made up for the disappointment of '09-'10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Robert i guess those march and april snowstorms we've had in the past kinda produce they're own cold air, is that right? that is why you can get those late winter storms? or early spring snow well they don't really produce their own , they are part of a buckling of the jetstream suddenly that has enough ofa cold pocket. Its like a whiplash in the atmosphere, where you snap a belt or hose up and down suddenly and end up cutting off an eddie or swirl in the atmosphere and its left to sit and spin for a few days. Its happened a few times since the 80's, every so often. We're actually due. Usually the Apps chain is the climo spot for it, and the reason I think it could happen this year is because of the strong amplification we've had already. Who knows if it will though. Usually the models show it coming from about a week out, and then you just have to fine tune its exact location, under the center of it is the coldest air , and depending on how many contours closed it is, and the depth of the cold it has with it, determines if theres going to be snow or just a lot of rain. Western NC to West VA. has gotten feet out of snow from those several times since the 1980's. Otherwise, who knows if blocking will return and we get something like March 1980 with a supressed storm track and unusually cold arctic air down here. It could happen, and will at some point. Could be another 10 years though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 well they don't really produce their own , they are part of a buckling of the jetstream suddenly that has enough ofa cold pocket. Its like a whiplash in the atmosphere, where you snap a belt or hose up and down suddenly and end up cutting off an eddie or swirl in the atmosphere and its left to sit and spin for a few days. Its happened a few times since the 80's, every so often. We're actually due. Usually the Apps chain is the climo spot for it, and the reason I think it could happen this year is because of the strong amplification we've had already. Who knows if it will though. Usually the models show it coming from about a week out, and then you just have to fine tune its exact location, under the center of it is the coldest air , and depending on how many contours closed it is, and the depth of the cold it has with it, determines if theres going to be snow or just a lot of rain. Western NC to West VA. has gotten feet out of snow from those several times since the 1980's. Otherwise, who knows if blocking will return and we get something like March 1980 with a supressed storm track and unusually cold arctic air down here. It could happen, and will at some point. Could be another 10 years though. I'm like eyewall and that I would prefer it stay cold but I won't lie, the warm up is going to feel nice. The largest snowfall on record for atlanta is in fact from an upper low (even though ewall doesn't show it completely cutoff) and it happened very late, march 24th, in 1983. They got 7.9 inches. It was also athens highest total on record until they broke it with the jan storm. It was interesting listening to ken cook describe it back during the jan storm as he said it was an upper low and there was quite a lot of thundersnow with it. It's almost impossible to believe that much snow could fall so late in the year, in atlanta especially. But anything can happen, even late. And the way this crazy year has been, who knows it could happen again. And this big warm up that is in the cards sort of makes me believe the pattern will recoil sometime in march and we will get cold again, possibly enough for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Ugh I guess I am the only one dreading the warm up. It is too damn early to end winter. We get plenty of heat around here. I was hoping we could at least get to March. You are not alone in this...I also dread those months consisting of Yellow Jackets, Africa heat, mosquitos & gnats (leading to the constant aroma of OFF! throughout the house), pollen, ragweed, fire ants, days so humid you need scuba gear, days so dry that the lawn becomes a bed of nails, AC crapping out (that one might just be me, but still), snakes in the shrubs, voles in the garden... This is, of course, my own Man v/s Nature v/s Himself conflict - I do not begrudge anyone their Springs or Summers. But if you happen to see a short, angry man of Scottish ancestry frantically swatting away mozzies - please wave. Exposing my tragically white shoulders to the sun will have likely hindered my movement, so if I don't wave back, please don't think I'm rude... Seriously though (cynical complaining aside) - I just hope this summer eases off a bit. That's all I'm asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It will be interesting to watch and see if the models are exaggerating the warmth in the long-range as they did the cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It will be interesting to watch and see if the models are exaggerating the warmth in the long-range as they did the cold.. originally they said this weekend, but thats def. been tempered, as has early next week now. The trough off the Northeast will still keep the Carolinas in weak nw flow , so we get a back door type front probably, or atleast a glancing blow from some moderate cold, certainly not super warm yet. However by middle of next week we should be in good zonal flow..one thing to watch is if another trough or backdoor front dips in though. Could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 yep seen this before, forecast calls for say 60 next Monday and by the time Monday gets here they've backed off to say 48 or 50, quite a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Ugh I guess I am the only one dreading the warm up. It is too damn early to end winter. We get plenty of heat around here. I was hoping we could at least get to March. Yeah, I don't understand why folks want it to warm up before they go outside It feels so much better out, and you can got so much more done, when it is winter. I'd stay inside in summer, if I could... and go outside in the winter, lol. Work, Croquet, golf, tennis...all better when you're shaking. Swimming not so much..but that's why they have wet suits, lol. Nao spagetti plots not looking as good as the last few days. Guess we'll have to deal with some heat for a while. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yeah, I don't understand why folks want it to warm up before they go outside It feels so much better out, and you can got so much more done, when it is winter. I'd stay inside in summer, if I could... and go outside in the winter, lol. Work, Croquet, golf, tennis...all better when you're shaking. Swimming not so much..but that's why they have wet suits, lol. Nao spagetti plots not looking as good as the last few days. Guess we'll have to deal with some heat for a while. T You forgot polo Tony. I'm with you. I would much rather work outside in the winter since I hate sweating. I usually cut grass when it's almost dark during the summer just so I can keep kind of cool . If it's not warm enough to plant my maters then I would rather had it frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yay, models are trending towards a big warm up now. Lets hope they don't trend back to a cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yay, models are trending towards a big warm up now. Lets hope they don't trend back to a cool down. Lol just kidding. I'm okay with a warm up now, but not for too long looking for one last storm late February into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Bring on the warmth. Im so ready for it I second the motion. It's no fun doing triathlon training in the winter. Or much of anything else, for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Normally I would be pissed that a warm is "modeled" to happen. But for some reason, this year, im fine with it. More so as I have a two year old and the winter months and outside playing time do not go hand and hand. + time change in march will help with that issue. I will Welcome an winter storm that wants to rock the SE.. But the days of sweating, baseball, cookouts, corn hole, fishing and cutting grass (yes, I like to cut grass) are a coming folks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 zonal flow to a possible southeast ridge is coming up. We may end up getting really above normal, but a lot of times the models overdo it, and already the warmer air this weekend has been delayed some and tempered. But still the warmth should be coming next week. We will have to wait until the last week of February before a pattern change can turn us colder, at the earliest. That may not happen til early March. And who knows if it will be cold enough and line up right to snow again. I do think a strong amplification is def. possible for somewhere though, with a cutoff and possible snow under it. But the truth is this could have been the last snow of the season, but for some I'm sure it wasnt'. thats my concern (and why i really wanted at least an inch yesterday/last night)...the last two winters have been too good to be true, no january thaws and a lot of frozen precip. and no blowtorch or ridge!! i anticipate and expect a warm up - it just 'cant' stay this cold this long in the se lol. the hitch is if it warms up for two weeks and the cold air doesnt return to march most of the winter will be over (while it can, and does, happen, snow after mid march is not that common in ga). and its more difficult to get accumulations in march even when it does snow (unless its at night) hopefully we arent quite done yet although i think the chances of a bad ice storm are going to rapidly decrease....usually freezing precip at the end of feb and march here is snow (or rain). freezing rain seems to be more common in dec - early feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 thats my concern (and why i really wanted at least an inch yesterday/last night)...the last two winters have been too good to be true, no january thaws and a lot of frozen precip. and no blowtorch or ridge!! i anticipate and expect a warm up - it just 'cant' stay this cold this long in the se lol. the hitch is if it warms up for two weeks and the cold air doesnt return to march most of the winter will be over (while it can, and does, happen, snow after mid march is not that common in ga). and its more difficult to get accumulations in march even when it does snow (unless its at night) hopefully we arent quite done yet although i think the chances of a bad ice storm are going to rapidly decrease....usually freezing precip at the end of feb and march here is snow (or rain). freezing rain seems to be more common in dec - early feb Yes true, but the suns angle relative to the earth is increasing every day now. Which means ground temperatures are going to start to increase and therefore winter precipitation accumulations are going more difficult to attain. Unless we have another March 2010 repeat...which is my only hope now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'd take another March 93 storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'd take another March 93 storm as well. Me too. It's been 15 years since I have had at least a foot of snow dumped on me (1996, living in Brevard NC). I've been in the wrong place at the wrong time since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yeah, I don't understand why folks want it to warm up before they go outside It feels so much better out, and you can got so much more done, when it is winter. I'd stay inside in summer, if I could... and go outside in the winter, lol. Work, Croquet, golf, tennis...all better when you're shaking. Swimming not so much..but that's why they have wet suits, lol. Nao spagetti plots not looking as good as the last few days. Guess we'll have to deal with some heat for a while. T I'm glad I'm not the only one not to grasp that concept This has been such a great winter for everyone and I will be sad once it's gone. I can only wish for an extended spring that will last into July, so that one day the pain of the hottest summer ever will not be such a vivid memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I'm glad I'm not the only one not to grasp that concept This has been such a great winter for everyone and I will be sad once it's gone. I can only wish for an extended spring that will last into July, so that one day the pain of the hottest summer ever will not be such a vivid memory. I definitely want it to be cold and snowy right now. But I absolutely hate spring, I would rather have it 90-100 degrees laying by the pool or on the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I definitely want it to be cold and snowy right now. But I absolutely hate spring, I would rather have it 90-100 degrees laying by the pool or on the beach. :angry: :angry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Not looking forward to the pollen or the patchwork of weeds that appear each spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Spring weather is often nice. Spring Pollen sucks. Thus, I hate spring. It is hard to enjoy the weather when mucus is spewing from your nose and your sinuses hurt. Of course, some years are. Better than others in regard to pollen. The only good seasons in the SE are fall and winter, IMO. I welcome the upcoming warmup. However, I hope to get at least one more shot of winter in March, hopefully with some snow to go along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Normally I would be pissed that a warm is "modeled" to happen. But for some reason, this year, im fine with it. More so as I have a two year old and the winter months and outside playing time do not go hand and hand. + time change in march will help with that issue. I will Welcome an winter storm that wants to rock the SE.. But the days of sweating, baseball, cookouts, corn hole, fishing and cutting grass (yes, I like to cut grass) are a coming folks.... +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Not so sure if this may have affected the sustained negative NAO over the past 12 months. Anyway it's set to blow again according to the article posted below. Look for the link. Icelandic volcano 'set to erupt' Scientists in Iceland are warning that another volcano looks set to erupt and threatening to spew-out a pall of dust that would dwarf last year's event. http://www.telegraph...t-to-erupt.html Also found this article for you Georgia "DAWGS" Georgia eyes coldest winter ever http://southeastfarm...est-winter-ever coldest January since 1994 in USA http://www.ncdc.noaa...ch/cag3/na.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Folks, The 12z Euro ensemble mean suggests a return to some chill the week after next fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Folks, The 12z Euro ensemble mean suggests a return to some chill the week after next fwiw. I am glad to hear it personally. REMEMBER LAST SUMMER!?!?! How soon they forget. I thought that summer would NEVER end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Normally I would be pissed that a warm is "modeled" to happen. But for some reason, this year, im fine with it. More so as I have a two year old and the winter months and outside playing time do not go hand and hand. + time change in march will help with that issue. I will Welcome an winter storm that wants to rock the SE.. But the days of sweating, baseball, cookouts, corn hole, fishing and cutting grass (yes, I like to cut grass) are a coming folks.... I certainly do not look forward to mid 90s with mid 70s dp's like we had last summer. I try to avoid going outside at all in the summer, except early in the morning and late at night. I can see how people up north look forward to summer, because they actually have some pretty pleasant weather in summer, and if they get a heat wave it usually doesn't last too long. Down here, it's nothing but nonstop heat for 3 months. I guess I dread summer much like people up there dread winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I am glad to hear it personally. REMEMBER LAST SUMMER!?!?! How soon they forget. I thought that summer would NEVER end! Worst summer ever. It was by far the most humid summer I ever remember. Suffocating humidity. I would not mind skipping June-August this year and just move from May to September. Is there anything better than that first big cold front after a long hot summer ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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