CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Those models are looking good this far out, but we need the Euro and Euro Ensembles to trend that way, 3-7 days out. Then we're talking. Unless we get some blocking, these short waves are going to have to be timed perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Those models are looking good this far out, but we need the Euro and Euro Ensembles to trend that way, 3-7 days out. Then we're talking. Unless we get some blocking, these short waves are going to have to be timed perfectly. yep...not going to be a lot of wiggle room with that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I was reading DT's Facebook page and he said early Sunday Models are showing more of a South and East Trend with the lows next Wednesday and Saturday. This could result in Snow for Central and Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No, I'm not talking about the 2/4 system. I'm talking about the 2/9 Miller A, which gives snow from N LA to NC. I'd sure like to see the blocking start to sputter to life, but that is round about your Valentine's wheelhouse. I always think of Feb. as my sleet/snow month. Guess it is all those very cold, very dry January's I've gone though. Feb. always seems more full of possibilities. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah. The last few years we have had a couple of accumulating snows in February with one about March 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Surprised Robert hasn't posted about the latest GFS models, indeed they look great for NC folks hoping for snow. Have to question the temps though, they're borderline and the Euro is saying no dice. Need some Cheez in here to Debbie Downer us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Really is an interesting path progged for the slp. GFS moves it slowley NE along the artic front from just north of the Yucatan at 114hrs, across Florida to just off Hatteras at 150. If that basic forecast holds true, north and northeast surface winds will be locked in over the SE while aloft, winds are southwesterly. If the model is underestimating the low level cold even a little, zr may well be the big story. By day 5, the arctic air mass will be a bit stale, but it starts out brutally cold. Will be very interesting to see how successful this air mass is at pushing east of the Appalachians early on with that +1040 high pushing south into Texas by day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Surprised Robert hasn't posted about the latest GFS models, indeed they look great for NC folks hoping for snow. Have to question the temps though, they're borderline and the Euro is saying no dice. Need some Cheez in here to Debbie Downer us. For now, it's nice that the Euro wanted to develop a coastal low. Typical.... Euro steps forward and the GFS warms the storm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Starting to wonder if we might get some snow with the arctic front next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Bottoms up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Our luck would be for the low too really take a trip to CUBA. I was reading DT's Facebook page and he said early Sunday Models are showing more of a South and East Trend with the lows next Wednesday and Saturday. This could result in Snow for Central and Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If you want to live vicariously through others, head on over to the midwest/west forum where they're tracking the massive storm in the plains. Unbelievable reports out of NE Oklahoma of 5" of snow in a 90 minute period. Wow. Check out the SPC frontogenesis graphic. Incredible. This was posted over there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like the Euro might throw us a bone with that artic front Queencity mentioned....@192 it has some snow showers in NC...of course grain of salt as these cold chasing moisture things rarely work for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ther Euro is really pushing the cold air in past 200...if it verifies is a different story all together of course. It has freezing temps in southern Mexico and all down to Orlando FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here we go again. Another 12Z Euro has a massive Arctic outbreak for the SE US. This one has a frigid -19C at 850 for KATL as of 6Z on 2/10 at hour 210. This is very consistent with yesterday's 12Z Euro 234 hour map showing -20 C at KATL as of 6Z on 2/10. What is up with the 12Z Euro runs? The 0Z runs haven't been having them. Might the Euro be right this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here we go again. Another 12Z Euro has a massive Arctic outbreak for the SE US. This one has a frigid -19C at 850 for KATL as of 6Z on 2/10 at hour 210. This is very consistent with yesterday's 12Z Euro 234 hour map showing -20 C at KATL as of 6Z on 2/10. Might the Euro be right this time? It could be...but you gotta think that extreme won't happen. I mean the temps it's showing is just insane. If the Euro is correct 90% of the US would be sub freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here we go again. Another 12Z Euro has a massive Arctic outbreak for the SE US. This one has a frigid -19C at 850 for KATL as of 6Z on 2/10 at hour 210. This is very consistent with yesterday's 12Z Euro 234 hour map showing -20 C at KATL as of 6Z on 2/10. What is up with the 12Z Euro runs? The 0Z runs never haven't been having them. Might the Euro be right this time? No. The GFS/Euro have cried wolf many times this year with regards to very low temperatures in the 7-10 day period. If we get within 3-4 days and the brutal cold is there, then I will bite. And now the GFS is showing it's typical early February post frontal clipper system that hasn't panned out south of I-40 in the 5 years I've been watching models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Too bad the cold air is not coming behind this cutter. Or we could be waxing the sleds on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 No. Euro has cried wolf too many times this year to put any belief in long range temperatures. And now the GFS is showing it's typical early February post frontal clipper system that hasn't panned out south of I-40 in the 5 years I've been watching models. Crying wolf? The Euro mutated into a werewolf this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Too bad the cold air is not coming behind this cutter. Or we could be waxing the sleds on Friday. and of course the best part about the Euro is that when the epic cold comes there is NOTHING in the way of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Back to normal around here. You statement sums it up.. and of course the best part about the Euro is that when the epic cold comes there is NOTHING in the way of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Crying wolf? The Euro mutated into a werewolf this go round. Exactly, and the GFS also, just different timing. This is the real deal arctic blast that has teased us for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Back to normal around here. You statement sums it up.. Yep we probably get the cold with moisture in the gulf taking the Cuba express! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Saw from a blogger on Accuweather where is a -EPO showing up on models.What is a -EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Saw from a blogger on Accuweather where is a -EPO showing up on models.What is a -EPO? Similar to the NAO but Eastern Pacific...here's a good description The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is the upper wind flow over the Eastern Pacific influenced by the ocean. When in a positive phase, the EPO generally is reflected by dominant stronger zonal flow and/or troughing along the West Coast of the U.S. This combination, in turn, tends to funnel milder Pacific air well inland into the country and thus, limits arctic outbreaks by holding them at bay up in Canada. When the EPO is dominated by a negative phase (as with the NAO), more ridging develops along the West Coast as higher pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska south along the West Coast of Canada (opposite of the positive phase). This, in turn, encourages a northwesterly flow from Canada into the middle and eastern sections of the US and thus, the delivery of polar or arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was just looking, Memphis is 55, west Arkansas is 18 degrees. single digits in OK and TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was just looking, Memphis is 55, west Arkansas is 18 degrees. 12 at Fayetteville with winds gusting to 31...many areas are 12-14 or so in NW ARk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was in high school back in the late 70's and I can remember winters like this .It would turn off mild for about a week or 2 but then winter would rush right in .I remember one year it got so warm men were out taring a roof, with thier shirts off, across the street from where i worked .Then the next week winter was back with cold and snow.Just saying if it does warm up it still amy not be over . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Surprised no one mentioned the Euro last night, it looks good at around late next week...pops a gulf low but a little to far SE but it would still be probably be 1-3 or 2-4 just verbatim....at least it has a threat of something this run. The 00z GFZ also had a minimal threat in that time frame. Certainly bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'll take an order of the 6z GFS. Day 7 looks like a good snow hit for the piedmonts of SC, NC, and Vir. Maybe back to the NC mountains. The below is at 168 and 850 temps are cold running deep into the coastal plains of NC & SC. The previous time (162) the 850 was between Greensboro NC and Raleigh NC. So some of the precip could be rain. I don't buy this right now but still somthing to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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