superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18Z GFS still loves eastern NC. Even sneaks a couple of inches into my back yard, it looks like. I may have to chase that thing if it actually happens next weekend. 18z GFS CREAMED southeastern NC. The Outer Banks looked good, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Alright, if the 0z run shows something similar, I will be officially interested... Crystal Coast would be measuring SN if feet! Several of the ens members have been showing development, although there are some discrepancies with respect to timing. The Euro cuts a weak Gulf low inland between 144 and 168, and is all RN for the SE. So confidence is increasing we will see yet another system next weekend, Fri/Sat timeframe, question is where does it go. I prefer the OTS scenario for obvious reasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The automated CPC (weekend version) 8-14 forecact is cold for the eastern U.S. w/ above normal precipitation. I keep expecting to see the light brown show-up on their map. The GFS has yet to flip warm despite signs otherwise. Saw on the main board(medium range discussion) that the Euro shows a warm-up during February for the eastern 2/3 of the country. Folks are debating its accuracy. I think(not totally sure) it tried this in December and ultimately backed off. I think (Foothills or hickory_wx...or both) spoke of La Nina extremes for their winter forecast. Looks to me like February is going to live up to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 guys history this winter says this will trend north and west Alright, if the 0z run shows something similar, I will be officially interested... Crystal Coast would be measuring SN if feet! Several of the ens members have been showing development, although there are some discrepancies with respect to timing. The Euro cuts a weak Gulf low inland between 144 and 168, and is all RN for the SE. So confidence is increasing we will see yet another system next weekend, Fri/Sat timeframe, question is where does it go. I prefer the OTS scenario for obvious reasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 this will trend north but more west. 18Z GFS still loves eastern NC. Even sneaks a couple of inches into my back yard, it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 18z GFS refuses to get aboard the warm train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Alright, if the 0z run shows something similar, I will be officially interested... Crystal Coast would be measuring SN if feet! Several of the ens members have been showing development, although there are some discrepancies with respect to timing. The Euro cuts a weak Gulf low inland between 144 and 168, and is all RN for the SE. So confidence is increasing we will see yet another system next weekend, Fri/Sat timeframe, question is where does it go. I prefer the OTS scenario for obvious reasons... Holy Smokes......... I saw this show up in earlier runs but I dismissed it as a non-event but I have to say there might be something there after all. Certainly is something worthy of tracking. Hate to see the coastal areas miss out on this one, but beware of the west trend that seems to always show up as we approach the event. Maybe this time there will be enough cold air for everyone to see some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 18z GFS refuses to get aboard the warm train. Despite the lack of blocking, the GFS shows a cross-polar flow setting up. I don't buy into the set-up yet, but I don't buy the Euro either. Probably will see something in between....... IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thank you for the 10-12 inches for Cold Rain, DGEX! With the 18Z GFS and the 18Z DGEX on your side, it's a lock, right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thank you for the 10-12 inches for Cold Rain, DGEX! With the 18Z GFS and the 18Z DGEX on your side, it's a lock, right?? I'll consider this a lock if we can also get the NOGAPS aboard. With the triangle of win of the GFS, DGEX, and NOGAPS, there just isn't any way this thing doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll consider this a lock if we can also get the NOGAPS aboard. With the triangle of win of the GFS, DGEX, and NOGAPS, there just isn't any way this thing doesn't happen. I don't think the GFS/Euro combo can do any better right now. Maybe the DGEX can find the acorn this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Despite the lack of blocking, the GFS shows a cross-polar flow setting up. I don't buy into the set-up yet, but I don't buy the Euro either. Probably will see something in between....... IMHO. IMO, the Euro is digging a trough to far into the Southwest. The GFS seems to be too far east w/ its trough. I'd say you are correct. Also...I think Lookout said it best recently, I don't trust any model past 4-5 days. Also, I'm looking at Cold Rain's DGEX map...and don't know what to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thank you for the 10-12 inches for Cold Rain, DGEX! Don't forget the NOGAPS, hung the front up along the coast @ 144 like the GFS, and looked interesting... GFS, DGEX, and NOGAPS, we are screwed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll consider this a lock if we can also get the NOGAPS aboard. With the triangle of win of the GFS, DGEX, and NOGAPS, there just isn't any way this thing doesn't happen. I didn't check out the JMA. Maybe with the trifecta of excellence you posted along with the JMA, we'd have just enough evidence to go ahead and issue winter storm warnings? The people have a right to know!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IMO, the Euro is digging a trough to far into the Southwest. The GFS seems to be too far east w/ its trough. I'd say you are correct. Also...I think Lookout said it best recently, I don't trust any model past 4-5 days. Also, I'm looking at Cold Rain's DGEX map...and don't know what to say! All kidding aside, the Euro does have a bias of holding energy back in the SW too long. What I don't know if it's more pronounced in certain patterns, and if so, what those patterns are. :headscratch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Don't forget the NOGAPS, hung the front up along the coast @ 144 like the GFS, and looked interesting... GFS, DGEX, and NOGAPS, we are screwed! http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12144.gif If we still got support from all these models tomorrow, you and me are going to Fishel and get him to start honking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I didn't check out the JMA. Maybe with the trifecta of excellence you posted along with the JMA, we'd have just enough evidence to go ahead and issue winter storm warnings? The people have a right to know!!!! If the 0z runs continue to show this possibility tonight, I'm going to call RAH and demand that they issue Winter Storm Watches for their entire viewing area overnight. Good idea on alerting the Fish, too. He needs to go ahead and issue his projected snowfall amounts. I think he should go ahead and just cart out the DGEX snowfall amounts verbatim to use as his snowfall accumulations map. The DGEX is usually spot-on with snowfall maps at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the 0z runs continue to show this possibility tonight, I'm going to call RAH and demand that they issue Winter Storm Watches for their entire viewing area. One of our members has their number. We gotta track them down, stat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If we still got support from all these models tomorrow, you and me are going to Fishel and get him to start honking! Only if the producers say it is OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One of our members has their number. We gotta track them down, stat! I think it was TriadWx. I may have to pay Fishel and the NWS office a visit on Monday as they're both within walking distance. I don't even have to call, I can just visit the NWS office myself and demand WSWs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think it was TriadWx. I may have to pay Fishel and the NWS office a visit on Monday as they're both within walking distance. I don't even have to call, I can just visit the NWS office myself and demand WSWs! Just let me know when you're going and I'll go with you, but only if Hartfield is on shift. How awesome would it be if Fishel carted out the DGEX Monday night? Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Only if the producers say it is OK. Producers schmroducers. They have too much control. Fish needs to negotiate more creative control into his contract the next time it comes up for negotiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll consider this a lock if we can also get the NOGAPS aboard. With the triangle of win of the GFS, DGEX, and NOGAPS, there just isn't any way this thing doesn't happen. I've been reading in the mid-atlantic threads before the last storm and they were so desperate that they pulled out models that you rarely see. The KMA is the Korean map that is like looking in the mirror. There's one called the BOM that's rotated 90 degrees and one called CRAS I believe. Superjames is the first one to show us the experimental FIM. It's kind of like the recent Toyota commercials that use the washed out stars like Eric Estrada, Lou Ferigno (no offense Lookout), and Fabio. Definitely not the starting lineup, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've been reading in the mid-atlantic threads before the last storm and they were so desperate that they pulled out models that you rarely see. The KMA is the Korean map that is like looking in the mirror. There's one called the BOM that's rotated 90 degrees and one called CRAS I believe. Superjames is the first one to show us the experimental FIM. It's kind of like the recent Toyota commercials that use the washed out stars like Eric Estrada, Lou Ferigno (no offense Lookout), and Fabio. Definitely not the starting lineup, right? Yea, I guess if the GFS, DGEX, and the NOGAPS verify on this one it will be like that Cinderella team that makes it deep into the NCAA tourney every now and then. Isn't the BOM the Australian wx model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ***FWIW (which isn't much this far out), the 0Z gfs has snow on 2/9 for N LA/N MS/NAL/N GA/NW SC/much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ***FWIW (which isn't much this far out), the 0Z gfs has snow on 2/9 for N LA/N MS/NAL/N GA/NW SC/much of NC. Indeed it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Indeed it does... No, I'm not talking about the 2/4 system. I'm talking about the 2/9 Miller A, which gives snow from N LA to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No, I'm not talking about the 2/4 system. I'm talking about the 2/9 system, whcih has snow from N LA to NC. Oh, whoops. Didn't read very clearly, it seems. My bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 0z GFS says, "Who needs blocking or a massive PNA ridge in order to get cold?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 0z GFS says, "Who needs blocking or a massive PNA ridge in order to get cold?" Around 320-336 hours, it tends to get NC confused with ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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