Lookout Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Call me when the blocking returns. I am no fan of 60+ in winter. Fortunately we haven't had that this winter. The lack of 60 degree days actually is pretty amazing to me. Every winter we always get a few periods of warm weather that shoot temps pretty high but this winter, 50s is about the best we have been able to get. I'm not complaining either, we have warm temps 9 out of 12 months a year, so keep the cold coming AFAIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Fortunately we haven't had that this winter. The lack of 60 degree days actually is pretty amazing to me. Every winter we always get a few periods of warm weather that shoot temps pretty high but this winter, 50s is about the best we have been able to get. I'm not complaining either, we have warm temps 9 out of 12 months a year, so keep the cold coming AFAIC. I'm in your camp. The only thing I dread about spring is knowing I have a minimum of 90+days that will follow of miseary. Let it stay cold,dreary what have you as long as it wants. This is coming from someone who is outside to till the sun sets with a huge garden and love for yardwork. Once I return from the beach in June and get the harvest up in July, Im beyond ready for Fall/winter to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Discussion of the next storm should be here, not in the Feb 2-4 thread. New Euro and Canadian have another SW closed low by days 6 and 7- what will it do? Get buried or give another winter threat- or just another cold rain? No telling at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro not looking too great for the SW closed low- hangs it back until the cold air is gone. The PNA ridge is too far west and still no sign of a -NAO. We will have to wait for very Late Feb or March it looks like- I say if we cannot have any more winter precip, lets hope for a good severe season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If I remember correctly are ninas good for severe potenial? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_small.gif That's a busy map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Wow talk about a temperature change... 65-35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 why is the real cold around to our west, southwest and northwest not coming southeast ahead of this next storm? i would think the cold would beat the moisture in here looking at the HPC threats map with all the cold around us. maybe it will trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 CPC is showing the NAO to go positive and remain slightly such. The PNA is forecast to go sharply negative. That is a recipe for a major warm-up. No new blocking on the horizon. Though, it is interesting to see the NAO struggle to reach positive. It's taken its sweet time going there. It may be quite a while before the next winter event, at least two weeks IMO - maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 CPC is showing the NAO to go positive and remain slightly such. The PNA is forecast to go sharply negative. That is a recipe for a major warm-up. No new blocking on the horizon. Though, it is interesting to see the NAO struggle to reach positive. It's taken its sweet time going there. It may be quite a while before the next winter event, at least two weeks IMO - maybe more. Beautiful...Nothing like seeing prime climo time completely shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Beautiful...Nothing like seeing prime climo time completely shot. I couldn't agree more. You know the GFS doesn't show that flip. The Euro is still fairly cool. So, it may just be a lull in the action. This winter it seems the cold has returned sooner than later. That's what I'm hoping for. The NAO has not been able to sustain its positive phase very long all winter - even when predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Congrats down east NC, says the 12Z GFS for late next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Congrats down east NC, says the 12Z GFS for late next week! Interesting feature for sure. Front seems to stall, and then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another GFS fantasy cold air outbreak............. this time it has MBY at -24 degrees C at 850mb. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_336l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I like the looks of next week. Plenty of high pressure around and moisture in the stream. First is too far north, second is too far south...reality for the second anyway, might be somewhere in between. Feb. is my favorite month for ip/sn. Winter is just getting good..except for this weekend blip. Already 65 here. Guess I'm obliged to go do yard work...blahhhh....that's summer work. Still, 70 in Jan. can often be the precursor to snow a few days later....so I won't bch and moan too much just yet T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another GFS fantasy cold air outbreak............. this time it has MBY at -24 degrees C at 850mb. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_336l.gif My guess, is that the model is "sensing" another cold outbreak. Every time I think this winter is finally going to go warm, the pattern reloads(in some fashion or another). The pattern this winter has been cold, followed by a few warm days, and then the pattern seems to reload(to cold). Seems just to find a way to go cold in the East. I don't think winter is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not saying it will not get cold here again, it likely will However, I do not buy the 12Z GFS at all, it has little support from the Euro ensembles and op- and we saw who won the last several battles between them. The new Euro is rolling, and I suspect that it will not move much if at all in the GFS's direction with the second closed low that forms in the SW. A farther west solution with that feature is also supported by the 12Z GGEM and uKMET. Right now I would be shocked if the OP GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not saying it will not get cold here again, it likely will However, I do not buy the 12Z GFS at all, it has little support from the Euro ensembles and op- and we saw who won the last several battles between them. The new Euro is rolling, and I suspect that it will not move much if at all in the GFS's direction with the second closed low that forms in the SW. A farther west solution with that feature is also supported by the 12Z GGEM and uKMET. Right now I would be shocked if the OP GFS verifies. Good post. Frankly I don't trust any of them beyond day 5...even day 4 really. None of them have been consistent in this range. Even the euro has shown large swings from one run to the next in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12Z Euro to 96, massively different than the GFS. Farther east than the 00Z run a bit-- closed low over AZ digging SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Last post before I go to a beer festival (yum) 12Z Euro- looks wet, but all rain on the 4th and the next one as well. Winter weather lovers take a week break from model watching- maybe our -NAO will return by mid-late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Last post before I go to a beer festival (yum) 12Z Euro- looks wet, but all rain on the 4th and the next one as well. Winter weather lovers take a week break from model watching- maybe our -NAO will return by mid-late month. good post Cheez...can't wait to see some of your posts tonight after the beer festival! It's 62° and breezy, still feels cool to me outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Last post before I go to a beer festival (yum) 12Z Euro- looks wet, but all rain on the 4th and the next one as well. Winter weather lovers take a week break from model watching- maybe our -NAO will return by mid-late month. Enjoy the festival Cheez. In the longer range it looks like the EURO beginning the flex the southeast ridge on this run. Will have to see if its ensembles show any support feature and whether it continues to show it on future runs. While it is not in a position to completely torch the southeast it would keep the coldest air west of the mountains. This would keep the storm track over the southeast and opens up the gulf moisture so at least it would be a wetter pattern which is what the European shows. If the rain forecasted this week underperforms then I think we will begin to see severe drought conditions take shape further north across GA and the Carolinas. I need the break from model watching anyway... need to finish my application to grad school for this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It looks like it is going to be fairly mild for a week or so but, this is what is needed in order to get a big winter storm in my opinion. I have lived in upstate sc for over 30 years and some of our biggest winter storms I can remember have come right after a period of mild to warm weather. We may not have the sustained cold like we did in most of december and january but, I believe there will be at least several opportunities for a couple of big winter storms over the next 6 weeks or so. Already over 150% of our annual snowfall for the year so when we get some more it will be icing on the cake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not much hope on the euro ensembles. Ensemble mean is a bit flatter than the euro and not as wet but in terms of sensible weather conditions, still just a chilly rain with 850s around plus 4. Although the 0c line extends from tx to to the nc/va border, Not much cold air to be found across the US or this side of the pole in general, with the coldest 850s generally only -4 to -8, with the exception being the northeast through hour 156. Looks like a very positive NAO unfortunately. Despite this, a large ridge located along and just offshore of the west coast keeps the central and eastern u.s. with the same general temp pattern as mentioned above through day 9, with the possibility of slightly cooler conditions toward the end of the period in the plains. I guess the good news is, there is no sign of a southeast ridge on the euro ensembles and no blow torch is in the works. Bad news is, nao is positive right through day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not much hope on the euro ensembles. Ensemble mean is a bit flatter than the euro and not as wet but in terms of sensible weather conditions, still just a chilly rain with 850s around plus 4. Although the 0c line extends from tx to to the nc/va border, Not much cold air to be found across the US or this side of the pole in general, with the coldest 850s generally only -4 to -8, with the exception being the northeast through hour 156. Looks like a very positive NAO unfortunately. Despite this, a large ridge located along and just offshore of the west coast keeps the central and eastern u.s. with the same general temp pattern as mentioned above through day 9, with the possibility of slightly cooler conditions toward the end of the period in the plains. I guess the good news is, there is no sign of a southeast ridge on the euro ensembles and no blow torch is in the works. Bad news is, nao is positive right through day 10. The +PNA and +NAO pattern is not going to get it done in terms of winter weather in the SE. Without blocking it is very hard to get storms to stay far enough south. The vortex in Canada also isnt really helping becuase all its doing is keeping the flow progressive across the northern tier, and the shortwaves rotating around the vortex also keep any high pressure from locking into place across the northeast for CAD events, theyre just getting pushed out to sea. I would much rather have a torch instead of this pattern. Cold/dry then warmup before a storm is useless IMO. Mind as well be nice outside if its not going to snow. Im hoping the -NAO returns, until then Im not too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18Z GFS still loves eastern NC. Even sneaks a couple of inches into my back yard, it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 anyone tell me what you see for next weekend Feb. 5-6, looking like something could be up as for the northern southeast and maybe upstate. 1050-1055 Arctic High coming in and a storm forming in the gulf hugging the coast. looking pretty good and some of the weather sites are spotting this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i'm not a met, so i need someone that knows what he's talking about to take a look at this potential next weekend, Feb. 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 anyone tell me what you see for next weekend Feb. 5-6, looking like something could be up as for the northern southeast and maybe upstate. 1050-1055 Artic High coming in and a storm forming in the gulf hugging the coast. looking pretty good and some of the weather sites are spotting this set up. The only model showing anything interesting is the GFS at this point. I'm not giving up hope on it yet, as there is energy in the flow and the Arctic front is settling through the area. Ultimately it will be determined on whether or not the Arctic front blasts through the area or whether it settles in and stalls somewhere. If that occurs, then I think regardless of what any model is showing at this point, it will be an interesting period. I'd like to see some other guidance other than the GFS or the DGEX show this scenario. We shall see. This is the kind of situation that has the potential to be a sneaky event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Of course, ~180 hrs, it slowly moves a closed H5 shorwave along the Gulf coast and has zero moisture associated with it. Nice work, GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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