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Here comes February 2011


BullCityWx

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It's only 10 days away!

Brick,

This Euro run MAY be threatening your area with IP/ZR on Mon. 1/31 although I'm not real familar with your area as far as ZR prospects are concerned. Regardless, if that one doesn't work out for you, at least it looks cold, even if no actual storm per this 12Z Euro run after the 1/31 one. So, if you enjoy cold even when it is dry, the first few days of Feb. look, dare I say, very interesting (IF the Euro is close to being accurate, obviously). So, the wx certainly doesn't look dull per this run.

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Brick,

This Euro run MAY be threatening your area with IP/ZR on Mon. 1/31 although I'm not real familar with your area as far as ZR prospects are concerned. Regardless, if that one doesn't work out for you, at least it looks cold, even if no actual storm per this 12Z Euro run after the 1/31 one. So, if you enjoy cold even when it is dry, the first few days of Feb. look, dare I say, very interesting (IF the Euro is close to being accurate, obviously). So, the wx certainly doesn't look dull per this run.

I hate cold weather unless it has something interesting like snow or ice.

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I hate cold weather unless it has something interesting like snow or ice.

Brick,

1) I wouldn't give up on 1/31 based on this run for IP/ZR.

2) Climo seems to favor the 2nd week in Feb. for GA/Carolina snow threats vs. the first week in Feb for whatever reason. If you can be patient, maybe something interesting could occur during, say, the period around 2/8-17. Don't fret if the first week ends up having no threats. It is normal, based on history, for whatever reason.

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yeah, but we have had most of our snow storms in January and December the past few years.

Indeed, Feb. severely underperformed during 1980-2009 vs. longterm climo. However, I have a feeling that the 2/12/2010 snowstorm, although not a major snow for your area, is the start of better things to come for the longterm for Feb. snow. Let's see if mid-Feb. can give us something nice.

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Indeed, Feb. severely underperformed during 1980-2009 vs. longterm climo. However, I have a feeling that the 2/12/2010 snowstorm, although not a major snow for your area, is the start of better things to come for teh longterm for Feb. snow. Let's see if mid-Feb. can give us something nice.

I don't know about the first half of Feb becasue the Euro ensembles still show a positive NAO with no sign of a change- Not sure if we will see blocking anytime soon- without it it will be difficult to have precip and cold air coincide,

I think we will probably have to wait for late Feb and early March- if we get any more significant snow events at all.

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I don't know about the first half of Feb becasue the Euro ensembles still show a positive NAO with no sign of a change- Not sure if we will see blocking anytime soon- without it it will be difficult to have precip and cold air coincide,

I think we will probably have to wait for late Feb and early March- if we get any more significant snow events at all.

Cheez,

Since early Feb. (first week or so) has pretty much sucked for sig. Miller A type snow events for whatever reason, that doesn't bother me. I'd prefer that the +NAO exist during that period as opposed to, say, mid to late Feb.

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Cheez,

Since early Feb. (first week or so) has pretty much sucked for sig. Miller A type snow events for whatever reason, that doesn't bother me. I'd prefer that the +NAO exist during that period as opposed to, say, mid to late Feb.

I remember several good storms the second week of feb (my moms birthday and she likes snow too) I also remember several from 2/28 and even into the second week of march...unless we warm up for good soon we can easily have several more chances

Wonder whats going on the the first week or feb, btw. Good storms at then end of Jan and good storms in the middle to end of January. You'd think the first week would historically be a prime winter wx week

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I hate cold weather unless it has something interesting like snow or ice.

Then go outside and play naked this weekend! It should be nice pleasant weather for that. We have a nice little warm-up Fri-Sun. Then overall, it looks like a colder than normal pattern as we start Feb. Probably not as long and strong as Dec./Jan but colder than normal. Colder than normal patterns are usually more desirable for snow. However, blocking would be helpful.This is the south.

I went from January 02 to January 08 with no snow on the ground IMBY. I have little understanding for someone in the SE that is disappointed with this winter, especially considering the forecasts coming into it.

I thought today was a lovely day. Drizzle to start, cloudy skies, temps 38-40, 20-25 mph winds. Outstsanding!!

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The days surrounding Feb 14 (Valentines) has always offered a threat around here. I noticed this in high school that seems either week of, before or just after V day there is some kind of winter event around my area atleast, more often than not.

I seem to remember the same thing from the 90s. In fact, there were some years that our only threats for winter weather were in mid Feb.It seemed a few years down here we would have about two weeks of winter. Colder temps and a couple snow/ice threats. It didn't usually happen, but that is when the threat would come. The rest of the time shorts weather seemed never more than a couple days away. My how things have changed for the better the last two years!

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The days surrounding Feb 14 (Valentines) has always offered a threat around here. I noticed this in high school that seems either week of, before or just after V day there is some kind of winter event around my area atleast, more often than not.

Nothing like spending Valentines Day tracking a snow threat (or recovering from one...)

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Nothing like spending Valentines Day tracking a snow threat (or recovering from one...)

Valentines Day is for other things or you risk ending up like this guy.

Hmmmm....I'll agree with Itunis :lol: I spent 10 days tracking the Valentines storm last year and it was awesome :wub: That was the first (and maybe the last) storm I had ever tracked knowing it was going to snow imby from a week out. Not an IF it will...the only thing in question was the amount :D

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I don't know about the first half of Feb becasue the Euro ensembles still show a positive NAO with no sign of a change- Not sure if we will see blocking anytime soon- without it it will be difficult to have precip and cold air coincide,

I think we will probably have to wait for late Feb and early March- if we get any more significant snow events at all.

We will most likely have to wait and see if the forecasted stratospheric warming event takes place or not. If it does then we may see a blocking pattern come back around the mid part of February. Hopefully our positive PNA can hold until this takes place.

If it doesn't then we all know what will happen then. gun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gif

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We will most likely have to wait and see if the forecasted stratospheric warming event takes place or not. If it does then we may see a blocking pattern come back around the mid part of February. Hopefully our positive PNA can hold until this takes place.

If it doesn't then we all know what will happen then. gun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gif

Hello Spring. Goodbye winter.

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Nothing like spending Valentines Day tracking a snow threat (or recovering from one...)

For shoots and giggles, check out the snow of 2/11 as per the 6z gfs. Seriously, let's see if we can at least get a threat in or around V Day. I suggest we forget about the first week in Feb. for a snow threat since the modeling isn't showing it and climo doesn't disagree. We probably need a break anyway to rest and reload after nearly two months of nonstop excitement.

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65 degrees and Golf tomorrow here at the beach :sun:

I'm ready to thaw out, gray and cold sucks. we have missed every opportunity to get snow here this season so far (3) not that I expected much due to Climatology, but would have been nice to see something,

Sunny, low humidities, and 50's to low 70's are great for walking and feels so good. I'll happily accept it, especially since it is a normal part of winter here in the deep south. We've had plenty of cold/gray. Time for a change. That's one appealing thing about southern winters. I'm confident the solid cold will return once or twice more this winter at least for short periods. That could include the time in and around Valentine's Day, when climo says look out for a possible snow threat. Forget the first week of Feb. 2011, when there's a one in a million possibility. Come to think of it, Jim Carrey would say "there is a chance" even then. ;)

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