Wow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I meant below zero Larry, sorry for the confusion. Looks like the 0 line is juuust east of the TN/NC line at 216. With 850 temps that cold, obviously that 0F line would be around this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The euro's 2M temps never drop below zero anywhere in the foothills or piedmont, FYI I'm really lost and need some help - where are you finding 2M temps on the Euro (link? Is it on Raleigh's site - if so, not finding it). Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm really lost and need some help - where are you finding 2M temps on the Euro (link? Is it on Raleigh's site - if so, not finding it). Thanks! pay site. Accuwx pro or SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.daculawea...0mb_temp_us.php Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Goes away quick on Friday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 1 pm on 2/3 CLT around 20 deg per the Euro 2m temps. The funny thing is that night temperatures never really fall as it rapidly moves the arctic air mass out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The funny thing is that night temperatures never really fall as it rapidly moves the arctic air mass out. Although the Euro is the king of models, I've generally not been very impressed with its 2 meter temp.'s. I think that is its weakest link so to speak. I like its 850's, surface pressure, and 500 mb maps much better as far as accuracy is concerned. Then again, it seems as though 2 m temp.'s are a weakness of many models for whatever reason (geographic influences make it more difficult to model??). So, the Euro's 2 meter temp.'s may still be the most accurate at the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Goes away quick on Friday though Yes, it does. However, based on many years of model watching, I'm sure you'll agree that that is commonly what occurs. When it moves out, it often warms rapidly at 850 but with a lag at the surface. Actually, KATL's 850's stay colder than -10 C for nearly 48 hours and colder than -14 C for ~39 hours!! Now that is quite rare and I'd have to seach old 850 maps real hard to find the last time they stayed that cold for that long at KATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 pay site. Accuwx pro or SV Thanks for the reply! Since they are pay site, I don't suppose they are available for sharing and view here (?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes, it does. However, based on many years of model watching, I'm sure you'll agree that that is commonly what occurs. When it moves out, it often warms rapidly at 850 but with a lag at the surface. Actually, KATL's 850's stay colder than -10 C for nearly 48 hours and colder than -14 C for ~39 hours!! Now that is quite rare and I'd have to seach old 850 maps real hard to find the last time they stayed that cold for that long at KATL. Follow-up to the above post: I was able to find only four instances since 1950 when KATL was -10 C or colder at 850 mb for 48+ straight hours: 1/16/1977 21Z to 1/19/1977 18 Z (69 hours): coldest 850 -17C; KATL: coldest low 1 F; coldest high 22 F 2/16/1958 3Z to 2/19/1958 0Z (69 hours): coldest 850 -15.5C; KATL coldest low 5 F; coldest high 22 F 1/7/1970 15Z to 1/10/1970 6Z (63 hours): coldest 850 -18.5C KATL coldest low 2 F; coldest high 23 F 12/22/1989 18Z to 12/24/1989 (48 hours): coldest 850 -16C; KATL coldest low 6 F; coldest high 22 F So, this implies that IF the Euro 850's were to verify (nearly 48 hours of -10C or colder and coldest of -21C), KATL will likely have one high of no higher than the low 20's and one low of no higher than the lower to mid single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks for the reply! Since they are pay site, I don't suppose they are available for sharing and view here (?). You cant share actual maps but I think it's cool to give rough outlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 18z DGEX has a storm in the mid range that gives snow to DFW and ice to places like San Antonio and Austin with snow everywhere north of 20 in the gulf states plus Middle/Western Tennessee. At 192, it's headed towards GA/SC/S NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You cant share actual maps but I think it's cool to give rough outlines. Understand completely. Not IMBY - but can someone give some rough Euro 2m max temp and min temp outlines for those three days or so for the south Georgia/ north Florida area (Savanna west to Tifton down to Thomasville/Tallahassee, over to Cross City, Gainesville and back up to Jax)? I'd like to compare them to some other data (even if rough outlines). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 0z GFS not developing the storm in that day 7-10 timeframe to pull down any of that arctic air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Understand completely. Not IMBY - but can someone give some rough Euro 2m max temp and min temp outlines for those three days or so for the south Georgia/ north Florida area (Savanna west to Tifton down to Thomasville/Tallahassee, over to Cross City, Gainesville and back up to Jax)? I'd like to compare them to some other data (even if rough outlines). Well, just a quick look at the min temps...looks like the 30º line makes it down to about Tampa....the 35º line is just south of Okeechobee. The highs are definitely more impressive as MCO and Tampa barely crack 45º and the 55º line is south of Key West. The 60º line almost gets to Havana. Jacksonville is actually north of the 35º high line so I'd imagine somewhere between 32-35? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 For anyone posting specifics for next week- I might caution you since the models are not exactly on the same planet- Check out this difference between the Euro and GFS at 168- one of the most massive I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 And the flip flops continue on Euro. Latest run has another damming event around 150 to 168 hour, just a close call, with the arctic blast coming in afterward, but mainly west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 And the flip flops continue on Euro. Latest run has another damming event around 150 to 168 hour, just a close call, with the arctic blast coming in afterward, but mainly west of the Apps. Pretty major LPS the GFS kicks up 9 days out. If only we can get the cold in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The models are terrible. I don't know how anyone can rely on them for a forecast. It looks like winter weather is over here, and once again this has been a disappointing winter. One good storm and one ok storm in December is all I have to show for it here. At least we got snow on Christmas. But overall, this winter have been disappointing in the number of snow storms we have had here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The models are terrible. I don't know how anyone can rely on them for a forecast. It looks like winter weather is over here, and once again this has been a disappointing winter. One good storm and one ok storm in December is all I have to show for it here. At least we got snow on Christmas. But overall, this winter have been disappointing in the number of snow storms we have had here. You should just copy this and paste it from now on so you don't have to go through the trouble of retyping it each time you post. At least the models can give you a clue as to whether it's gonna be hot or cold. That's valuable, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You should just copy this and paste it from now on so you don't have to go through the trouble of retyping it each time you post. At least the models can give you a clue as to whether it's gonna be hot or cold. That's valuable, isn't it? Yes, they can show potential. What actually happens here, though, is a crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes, they can show potential. What actually happens here, though, is a crapshoot. Stop being a weenie because the models aren't showing what you want for your back yard a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Stop being a weenie because the models aren't showing what you want for your back yard a week out. Well, even if it does, that doesn't mean anything. Anyway, this should probably be in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The models are terrible. I don't know how anyone can rely on them for a forecast. It looks like winter weather is over here, and once again this has been a disappointing winter. One good storm and one ok storm in December is all I have to show for it here. At least we got snow on Christmas. But overall, this winter have been disappointing in the number of snow storms we have had here. apparently you have a hard time understanding climatology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'll take what the 12z GFS is selling at 336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I will take me some of that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Don't look now, but 12Z Euro frigid again early Feb! (though not as frigid as yesterday's 12Z Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 @240 on the Euro it just looks fantastic...too bad it's 240 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 @240 on the Euro it just looks fantastic...too bad it's 240 hours out. It's only 10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's only 10 days away! Better than 20. Anyway the jma has a lakes cutter then a second wave at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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