Weather Czar Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Gfs says winter returns next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I am going on a tour of WRAL at 7 PM with our student AMS chapter. Hopefully, I can meet the Fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I would call this winter anything but boring for ga/sc/al. No we didn't get any super damming or blizzard of 93 storm but 3 accumulating snows in al/ga/sc, including a white christmas and a record breaking snow here which allowed there to be snow on the ground for a solid week, has to be looked at as exciting and fantastic. I know it's all relative though as it didn't work out nearly as well for some. It's sort of strange actually seeing some complain about this winter as good as it has been here. Normally it's me doing the complaining while others have had a good winter That said, this pattern shift sucks monkey balls. It's hard to believe such a cold and active winter would come to such a crashing halt but it sure looks like it. I keep trying to hold out hope for some sort of surprise, like a strong cutoff upper low or something, but looking at the long range..which now takes us into march, it's looking mighty bleak. It would be pretty rare for us to get this warm so early and stay warm but on the other hand a lot of things about this winter have been rare. It would be only fitting..and ironic. thats for sure - for the last two years! i realize some got screwed (which sucks) but for n ga it has been an awesome two years. granted, no 93 type storm, but 4 or 5 6"+ snowfalls in two winters is amazing (that doesnt count the smaller 'piddly' events of only an inch lol) i would gladly pass a 93 event or super cad to get this kind of winter any day. one of the snowfalls was just about 10" - thats about as good as it gets in ga and yes it sucks right now its so boring lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 got a question for you model specialist. What do i look for as far as winds at the surface a couple days from now and are the models any more accurate or just as bad like precipitation? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Board excitement level: -20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Board excitement level: -20 yep! I agree....however my -20 just went up to about -5....GFS300 has a storm Nope...I'll never learn....Oh well....my typical give up on winter storms isn't unitl March 15th....so I'll hold the torch for a few more days yet....As far as this winter thus far....can't complain....cold in Dec, Jan and much of Feb....just like a winter should be.....and though I did not get extreme amounts of anything, I did get 1 inch at Christmas, 1/2 inch of sleet in Jan...and 1 inch this month....SO....measurable winter precip in all 3 months of meteorological winter....pretty outstanding .....someone once asked me if I had rather have one 4inch+ snow or several events that equaled that much.....well.....now I have seen the totals.....I'd like next winter to bring one 4 inch + storm.....then....I will really be able to compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 A fitting end to a sucky winter. For all the events we got, Chapel Hill got around 5" of snow while areas N, S, E and W got more by the end of the snow season. Now it's just dry. Heading into another giant drought, though this one is getting an earlier start. Can't wait to be baking in the summer with temps in the 100s and lake levels at record lows while in the middle of the worst recession since the great depression. Can't get much more ****ed than that. What do you mean, recession?? This is a recovery. Don't you watch the news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Good Gracious!! Hold on to something out there, folks!! ...and DON'T BURN ANYTHING!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 What are you guys talking about? This is a GREAT pattern....ok, that was not nice...sorry.... In all seriousness, for MOST on this board, and from the SE then the winter was really good!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I would call this winter anything but boring for ga/sc/al. No we didn't get any super damming or blizzard of 93 storm but 3 accumulating snows in al/ga/sc, including a white christmas and a record breaking snow here which allowed there to be snow on the ground for a solid week, has to be looked at as exciting and fantastic. I know it's all relative though as it didn't work out nearly as well for some. It's sort of strange actually seeing some complain about this winter as good as it has been here. Normally it's me doing the complaining while others have had a good winter That said, this pattern shift sucks monkey balls. It's hard to believe such a cold and active winter would come to such a crashing halt but it sure looks like it. I keep trying to hold out hope for some sort of surprise, like a strong cutoff upper low or something, but looking at the long range..which now takes us into march, it's looking mighty bleak. It would be pretty rare for us to get this warm so early and stay warm but on the other hand a lot of things about this winter have been rare. It would be only fitting..and ironic. Don't get me wrong it could have been much worse. For GA esp, it was really exciting, and for the one storm on the NC coast Christmas, that was a nice storm, but overall in NC I thought it was lackluster. I miss the heavy rates, winds and deeper low pressures, heavy duty cold rains....systems with dynamics, there just wasn't much of that in NC in my opinion. Last year's Nino blew this year away i.m.o, even though this year delivered about the same snow with 2 bigger systems as opposed to last years smaller amounts. Nino's are just a heck of a lot juicier here. Only once did I get a good rain event, and that was a couple weeks ago, of over 1". Rivers here are in terrible shape, but thats nothing new. This time last year, they were right at normal, the first time in many years, but of course May arrived and the rest was downhill. Good Gracious!! Hold on to something out there, folks!! ...and DON'T BURN ANYTHING!!! You said that right. I've been driving all day around the county, and everyone with a gravel drive has just sheets of dust flying up and sweeping across the roads. There were several times I barely could see the road and had to really slow down. Saw a couple of accidents as well, probably caused by the reduced visibility. I've never seen dust storms in February here, even though I've seen some good wind events, today has seemed surreal...we shouldn't be dealing with duststorms in February...pretty scary how March will become if we don't get some rain soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The 300 hr GFS will be right since I will be in Florida unable to enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You said that right. I've been driving all day around the county, and everyone with a gravel drive has just sheets of dust flying up and sweeping across the roads. There were several times I barely could see the road and had to really slow down. Saw a couple of accidents as well, probably caused by the reduced visibility. I've never seen dust storms in February here, even though I've seen some good wind events, today has seemed surreal...we shouldn't be dealing with duststorms in February...pretty scary how March will become if we don't get some rain soon. I live on one of those 'gravel drives'!! The only folks who live on it are family...still I wish they'd stop driving past my house. ((cough, cough, sniffle, sniffle, Achoo!) It is dry as a bone out there! I hope things turn the corner soon, or gardens are going to suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I only hope your right. Sorry you'll be out of town but I hope your right. The 300 hr GFS will be right since I will be in Florida unable to enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The 300 hr GFS will be right since I will be in Florida unable to enjoy the snow. I'm leaving for Vegas that Monday so it'll be postponed until Wed. like it always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It is another absolutely glorious day for a walk here in Savannah with beautiful blue skies, a few cirrus,75-77 F, brisk refreshing west winds,and td's in the 50's. This winter has been great here in GA with an almost unheard of 4 measurable.snows in most of N Gs and even two mini events here in Savannah. Then with the persistent cold breaking and yielding gorgeous springlike warmth making walking and other outdoor activities very enjoyable after the long period of cold, it is hard to beat it here in GA. Many people here and at other bb's have often said they'd prefer to not have the cold if it isn't going to snow. What a fantastic winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvis Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Not a Meterologist but it looks like the NAO takes a huge dive into negative territory right after the beginning of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Don't get me wrong it could have been much worse. For GA esp, it was really exciting, and for the one storm on the NC coast Christmas, that was a nice storm, but overall in NC I thought it was lackluster. I miss the heavy rates, winds and deeper low pressures, heavy duty cold rains....systems with dynamics, there just wasn't much of that in NC in my opinion. Last year's Nino blew this year away i.m.o, even though this year delivered about the same snow with 2 bigger systems as opposed to last years smaller amounts. Nino's are just a heck of a lot juicier here. Only once did I get a good rain event, and that was a couple weeks ago, of over 1". Rivers here are in terrible shape, but thats nothing new. This time last year, they were right at normal, the first time in many years, but of course May arrived and the rest was downhill. Couldn't have said it any better myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Not a Meterologist but it looks like the NAO takes a huge dive into negative territory right after the beginning of March? Which graph are you looking at? By the way welcome to the board. The GFS has it slightly positive to start March and the ensembles are mostly positive but closer to neutral, it doesn't look too positive on any models yet . We may cool down by then though thanks to a split flow and Alaska block, but the models are back and forth on that as well. One thing that does stick out is the NAO trend over the last few decades. Clearly, overall its going back down, and that trend probably started last Fall and Winter. The mean is the trend to watch, even though actual value will come and go in both pos. and neg . category. Winter lovers should rejoice, as this is a strong, strong indication of whats to come I think. (speaking of the last 2 Winters in the Southeast). There should be periods of active winter weather, like we just had, the great periods some of us have heard of during the 1950/60s and late 70's. Even though a good pattern or snowstorm can strike out of the blue, by far we need a good pattern to pave the way, and that almost always includes strong neg. NAO. As you can see it started climbing in the 80's and peaked to mostly all positive in the 90's then began working its way back down, so quite possibly, the best winter storms are just around the corner for the Southeast. I'd say the next 5 years will feature numerous big Southern events with Miller A Gulf storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Which graph are you looking at? By the way welcome to the board. The GFS has it slightly positive to start March and the ensembles are mostly positive but closer to neutral, it doesn't look too positive on any models yet . We may cool down by then though thanks to a split flow and Alaska block, but the models are back and forth on that as well. One thing that does stick out is the NAO trend over the last few decades. Clearly, overall its going back down, and that trend probably started last Fall and Winter. The mean is the trend to watch, even though actual value will come and go in both pos. and neg . category. Winter lovers should rejoice, as this is a strong, strong indication of whats to come I think. (speaking of the last 2 Winters in the Southeast). There should be periods of active winter weather, like we just had, the great periods some of us have heard of during the 1950/60s and late 70's. Even though a good pattern or snowstorm can strike out of the blue, by far we need a good pattern to pave the way, and that almost always includes strong neg. NAO. As you can see it started climbing in the 80's and peaked to mostly all positive in the 90's then began working its way back down, so quite possibly, the best winter storms are just around the corner for the Southeast. I'd say the next 5 years will feature numerous big Southern events with Miller A Gulf storms. Outstanding write-up. Once we go to a weakening Nina, a Nada, or weak Nino...future winter prospects(2011-2012 and beyond) should look up as far as storms IMO. Noticed the PNA trending positive towards the second week in March at CPC. Wasn't quite positive on the graph yet. However, it seemed to be a bit of a switch. That said, the GFS ensembles seem to try to pop a PNA ridge out west ever so slightly after day 10. Am I reading the CPC site and GFS ensembles correctly? Noticed a volcano erupted today at lower latitudes. Time will tell if that has an impact... Bulusan spewed ash, and was not classified as an eruption (edit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I am going on a tour of WRAL at 7 PM with our student AMS chapter. Hopefully, I can meet the Fish! I should have snuck in with you guys! You know, file in file in...blend with the crowd...Dang it! Do you know if they give tours of the weather center to other students not affiliated with MEAS/Student AMS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 2:15am... 63.5f 3:15am... 52.1f 4:15am... 44.3f currently 42.6f and falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelvis Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Thank you for the explanation! I am just a weather observer and enjoy reading the SE threads. Which graph are you looking at? By the way welcome to the board. The GFS has it slightly positive to start March and the ensembles are mostly positive but closer to neutral, it doesn't look too positive on any models yet . We may cool down by then though thanks to a split flow and Alaska block, but the models are back and forth on that as well. One thing that does stick out is the NAO trend over the last few decades. Clearly, overall its going back down, and that trend probably started last Fall and Winter. The mean is the trend to watch, even though actual value will come and go in both pos. and neg . category. Winter lovers should rejoice, as this is a strong, strong indication of whats to come I think. (speaking of the last 2 Winters in the Southeast). There should be periods of active winter weather, like we just had, the great periods some of us have heard of during the 1950/60s and late 70's. Even though a good pattern or snowstorm can strike out of the blue, by far we need a good pattern to pave the way, and that almost always includes strong neg. NAO. As you can see it started climbing in the 80's and peaked to mostly all positive in the 90's then began working its way back down, so quite possibly, the best winter storms are just around the corner for the Southeast. I'd say the next 5 years will feature numerous big Southern events with Miller A Gulf storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 2:15am... 63.5f 3:15am... 52.1f 4:15am... 44.3f currently 42.6f and falling Should be kind of interesting to see how fast the front makes it through the piedmont today. Looks like its currently runs from about Fayetteville extending northwest to just southwest of Asheboro, and Lexington, to just west of Mt Airy, NC. Our forecasted high of 70 may be in trouble today if it continues to make steady progress this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 if the Euro is right we may get a decent rain event and upper low in here to start off March. Interesting that yet another upper low is forecast for early March, however this one has no cold air to work with, except perhaps the northwest side in Arkansas. In fact the cold air the GFS and sometimes Euro has had keeps getting delayed, so if we do turn cold anytime in the next 2 weeks, it will probably come with little notice for example a quick deepening trough over the Lakes or Ohio Valley. Right now the Pacific keeps going against any kind of cold push into the Southeast for a long time. I also wouldn't get too excited about this rain chance in a week, as it could easily trend north and west of the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Managed to squeeze out 0.09" last night. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Maybe something ahead for our chasers? from RAH this morning FRIDAY: HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY (THOUGH NEAR CERTAINTY RAINPROBABILITIES WILL BE WARRANTED IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD) AS THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDING BAND OF CONVECTION CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF THUNDER FRI GIVEN THE PROJECTED FRONTAL FORCING AND DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN (TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREE TD/S) AND STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (TO AROUND 6 C/KM). IN FACT...SOME STORMS -- THOUGH LIKELY LOW-TOPPED GIVEN A LACK OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY -- COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...OWING TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER AND PARTICULARLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING 50-60 KT AND 80-90 KT LOW AND MID LEVEL JETS...RESPECTIVELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I used my wipers for two swipes on my commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 raise your hand if you are BELOW normal on snowfall this winter. yep, as I thought, just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Sprinkled for like 5 minutes here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Pollen count in Atlanta today is 703 (high is 90-1499), two weeks ago it was 7. Alder, cedar and elm are the main culprits right now. It's VERY early for counts to be this high. http://www.daculawea.../pollen_new.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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