jburns Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Shift this 2000 miles east and .... I tried flipping the image in Photoshop but the damn trough flipped with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 If nothing else, this thread proves my mojo sucks. It didn't suck at all for snowlovers of ATL and much of north GA. In fact, it was the opposite. It was an above normal snowy month for many there and it capped off the first DJF I've been able to find (back to 1879) where ATL got 1"+ snows in each of Dec., Jan., and Feb. Also, it was the first time since 1963-4 that KATL got measurable snow in each of D, J, and F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 well I guess we have gone Winter>Summer. I'll embrace golfing and hitting the beach front tiki bar in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12_sm.jpg Maybe some rains for some of the SE folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 55 degrees with a full overcast and 10% humidity. Fairly unusual combination for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep..../p120i12_sm.jpg Maybe some rains for some of the SE folks! It does look like west of the Apps will turn wet this week, but east of the Apps will remain mostly dry. New EURO does offer some hope for northeast GA, and the Carolinas towards the end of the month as a frontal system sags down across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 FWIW, the European still looks very warm through 240. The GFS ensembles are beginning to look fairly cold between days 12-16. The SE ridge still looks locked in place through day 10 on both models. That said, JB mentioned a stratospheric warming event currently in the making. That would seem to line-up w/ cooler weather returning to at least a portion of the East as depicted on the GFS. He wasn't sure if it could get south, but thought some of it would at some point. I can't say I disagree w/ him. As a counter to my own point, this has not been a great winter for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 FWIW, the European still looks very warm through 240. The GFS ensembles are beginning to look fairly cold between days 12-16. The SE ridge still looks locked in place through day 10 on both models. That said, JB mentioned a stratospheric warming event currently in the making. That would seem to line-up w/ cooler weather returning to at least a portion of the East as depicted on the GFS. He wasn't sure if it could get south, but thought some of it would at some point. I can't say I disagree w/ him. As a counter to my own point, this has not been a great winter for him. Maybe the "blind squirrel" theory will kick in for him. He's due. Find that nut, JB! Find it baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Extreme wind damage today in Raleigh Is that near the Tri-Towers on the NC State campus where they've been cutting some of the branches down? Anyways, I'm in High Point right now under overcast skies with a relative humidity of 12%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 If nothing else, this thread proves my mojo sucks. Well, the warm weather means the thread is a long way from 50 pages, and the month isn't over. I'm not ready to give up on you yet. Plenty of time for a big storm, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 50's and overcast with wind sucks. Give me snow or warm up already. We're moving on May 21 this year and I won't be able to stand this for three more months. Spring in the mountains is by far the worst season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It does look like west of the Apps will turn wet this week, but east of the Apps will remain mostly dry. New EURO does offer some hope for northeast GA, and the Carolinas towards the end of the month as a frontal system sags down across the area. thats the one that has a good chance to finally make it rain in most of the Carolinas, but not much of anything before then. Strong ridging covers the Gulf states/Gulf of Mexico and that blocks any moisture until the pattern breaks. Well, the warm weather means the thread is a long way from 50 pages, and the month isn't over. I'm not ready to give up on you yet. Plenty of time for a big storm, lol. T I was thinking the same thing. Even though it was a great Winter for many, with snow above normal, its been a very boring Winter in terms of getting an actual deep low coming out of the Gulf, strong high damming in, strong surface winds, howling the snow and sleet about, with thunder and lightning and heavy precip rates. I've been missing the storms of the late 70's for a very long time, and would love to see/experience a true to the definition, actual, deep Winter storm with all the elements that come with it. Even if it means just a cold rain. Hopefully March will bring us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 thats the one that has a good chance to finally make it rain in most of the Carolinas, but not much of anything before then. Strong ridging covers the Gulf states/Gulf of Mexico and that blocks any moisture until the pattern breaks. I was thinking the same thing. Even though it was a great Winter for many, with snow above normal, its been a very boring Winter in terms of getting an actual deep low coming out of the Gulf, strong high damming in, strong surface winds, howling the snow and sleet about, with thunder and lightning and heavy precip rates. I've been missing the storms of the late 70's for a very long time, and would love to see/experience a true to the definition, actual, deep Winter storm with all the elements that come with it. Even if it means just a cold rain. Hopefully March will bring us something. I second that Robert!! What happened to the setup of those days that caused the great parade of gulf storms? I remember vividly of how so many of them were classic, text book; full coma head and all. Those were the days . Some say last winter was like them. No, even though probably closest since, still not real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 50's and overcast with wind sucks. Give me snow or warm up already. We're moving on May 21 this year and I won't be able to stand this for three more months. Spring in the mountains is by far the worst season. I was out back cutting down a blighted pine and got ticks and chiggers. I hate this end of the extremes. I like a cold winter, but this hot, endless summer bs on the flipside sucks! HOw were the south seas? Throw any bread fruit trees overboard ? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 thats the one that has a good chance to finally make it rain in most of the Carolinas, but not much of anything before then. Strong ridging covers the Gulf states/Gulf of Mexico and that blocks any moisture until the pattern breaks. I was thinking the same thing. Even though it was a great Winter for many, with snow above normal, its been a very boring Winter in terms of getting an actual deep low coming out of the Gulf, strong high damming in, strong surface winds, howling the snow and sleet about, with thunder and lightning and heavy precip rates. I've been missing the storms of the late 70's for a very long time, and would love to see/experience a true to the definition, actual, deep Winter storm with all the elements that come with it. Even if it means just a cold rain. Hopefully March will bring us something. I am completely on board with that! I'd love to see a two inch rain falling into a true, old time cad!! A howling windy 33 and rain. Seems like in the last few years the weather is boring between the snow storms. I haven't even seen 0 in years. I don't think I've been below 13 in the last 5. I'm not complaining though as over all it has been a good deal colder.....it is just I like a bit of frostbite cold every once in a while I still hope the 25th or so will suppress beyond what I'm seeing on the gfs. This pattern has got to flip soon..I'm just so sure blocking will come back..hoping I'm right anyway But the gfs teleconnection data was more promising last week with more of the mean plots running deeply south. But I won't give up on a March blizzard until April. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 A fitting end to a sucky winter. For all the events we got, Chapel Hill got around 5" of snow while areas N, S, E and W got more by the end of the snow season. Now it's just dry. Heading into another giant drought, though this one is getting an earlier start. Can't wait to be baking in the summer with temps in the 100s and lake levels at record lows while in the middle of the worst recession since the great depression. Can't get much more ****ed than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I really hope we are not heading into anything like last summer for this year. At least give me a good severe season out of the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 A fitting end to a sucky winter. For all the events we got, Chapel Hill got around 5" of snow while areas N, S, E and W got more by the end of the snow season. Now it's just dry. Heading into another giant drought, though this one is getting an earlier start. Can't wait to be baking in the summer with temps in the 100s and lake levels at record lows while in the middle of the worst recession since the great depression. Can't get much more ****ed than that. I see you watched Zeitgeist III too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Robert still don't think winter is over yet for the NC Mtns. and maybe all of WNC. We've all that live here have seen this happen many times before. Let's hope some cold will come back before the trees and flowers get a false sense that its spring. I see you watched Zeitgeist III too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Baring a march surprise, it's been a good winter around here. Nothing amazing by any stretch, but it was definitely solid. It seems weird it ended so suddenly after last winter and how cold this winter was up until last week. I'm not complaining though. Bring on severe weather and spring time. Hoping our la-nina continues to fade out so we have some storms to track this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Robert still don't think winter is over yet for the NC Mtns. and maybe all of WNC. We've all that live here have seen this happen many times before. Let's hope some cold will come back before the trees and flowers get a false sense that its spring. To late for the Tulip Poplars imby. I can't complain about this winter at all. It is astounding how winter just went away. Like somebody flipped a switch. I guess that is what a pattern change will do. I am sure more cold is on the way but it sure does feel like spring now. It is already 69.2° @ 11:06 am in Weaverville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The dry conditions were responsible for a fire that almost took out my brother's place yesterday. His whole back yard was on fire but luckily he only lost a fence. Most townhome communities or condos where you pay for landscaping put down pine straw which is like fuel for the fire and with the grass so dry it caught very quick in the high wind. I really hope we can get a decent amount of rain soon before we start talking about wild fires around the SE. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 250 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 094>098-107>113-220000- DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW- CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB- NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES- HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON- NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON- SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP- MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON- GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS- WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN- PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS- 250 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT... ...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY FOR NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 MPH OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WITH DRY FUELS...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES CONCERNING WHETHER YOU MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE EXTREME CAUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The dry conditions were responsible for a fire that almost took out my brother's place yesterday. His whole back yard was on fire but luckily he only lost a fence. Most townhome communities or condos where you pay for landscaping put down pine straw which is like fuel for the fire and with the grass so dry it caught very quick in the high wind. I really hope we can get a decent amount of rain soon before we start talking about wild fires around the SE. Yep our big Saturday fire in Bartow kicked up again yesterday. This time they had to bring in the forest service and bulldozers. Lucky for me the wind was different so my whole house doesn't smell like smoke any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Per the long range, we could (keyword could) get into an active period with plenty of rain chances for us here across the SE by the time we get close to closing off this month and into March. Hopefully that will come to fruition to settle these fire/drought issues down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yep our big Saturday fire in Bartow kicked up again yesterday. This time they had to bring in the forest service and bulldozers. Lucky for me the wind was different so my whole house doesn't smell like smoke any more. I guess a lot of areas will be dealing with it until a good rain happens. Glad you don't have to deal with the smoke. The wind luckily blew in a different direction yesterday to keep the flames away from my brother's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 FWIW the 12Z GFS has a miller A on 3/5-3/6 with a 1030MB high in the Plains, and 970MB low east of Canada, also looked like some heights/ridging building over Greenland. Too bad it's 300hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not that this means doodly or that it is even worth mentioning, but **********fwiw*****************, the 12Z goofy has a classic Miller A snowstorm for NE AL, N GA, NW SC, and virtually all of NC on 3/5-6 with major snow (4"+) in most of the E 1/2 of NC. Take this with a huge grain of salt. Chance of verifying even closely: ~3% at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Right now I could care less about snow. I havent had rain in 2 weeks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not that this means doodly or that it is even worth mentioning, but **********fwiw*****************, the 12Z goofy has a classic Miller A snowstorm for NE AL, N GA, NW SC, and virtually all of NC on 3/5-6 with major snow (4"+) in most of the E 1/2 of NC. Take this with a huge grain of salt. Chance of verifying even closely: ~3% at best. Yep, Like you said huge grain of salt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 thats the one that has a good chance to finally make it rain in most of the Carolinas, but not much of anything before then. Strong ridging covers the Gulf states/Gulf of Mexico and that blocks any moisture until the pattern breaks. I was thinking the same thing. Even though it was a great Winter for many, with snow above normal, its been a very boring Winter in terms of getting an actual deep low coming out of the Gulf, strong high damming in, strong surface winds, howling the snow and sleet about, with thunder and lightning and heavy precip rates. I've been missing the storms of the late 70's for a very long time, and would love to see/experience a true to the definition, actual, deep Winter storm with all the elements that come with it. Even if it means just a cold rain. Hopefully March will bring us something. I would call this winter anything but boring for ga/sc/al. No we didn't get any super damming or blizzard of 93 storm but 3 accumulating snows in al/ga/sc, including a white christmas and a record breaking snow here which allowed there to be snow on the ground for a solid week, has to be looked at as exciting and fantastic. I know it's all relative though as it didn't work out nearly as well for some. It's sort of strange actually seeing some complain about this winter as good as it has been here. Normally it's me doing the complaining while others have had a good winter That said, this pattern shift sucks monkey balls. It's hard to believe such a cold and active winter would come to such a crashing halt but it sure looks like it. I keep trying to hold out hope for some sort of surprise, like a strong cutoff upper low or something, but looking at the long range..which now takes us into march, it's looking mighty bleak. It would be pretty rare for us to get this warm so early and stay warm but on the other hand a lot of things about this winter have been rare. It would be only fitting..and ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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