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Here comes February 2011


BullCityWx

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I guess someone forgot to pay their share of the winter weather bill this month and they have revoked our privileges :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana:

I was just a few degrees shy of 80 today and we just might reach that tomorrow..........*sigh*..........I'm not ready for hot and dry :(:angry:

I bought a log splitter yesterday and gave it a good work out. Since I figure we are in the beginning of a mini ice age, I'm already looking beyond summer to a nice cold next winter :) Looking past summer is the only way I can stay sane, lol. Especially as the sun got real active this week, and that may shoot down my ice age scenario. Oh, well, I need some looking past practice as pretty soon we will be having to rely of the fickle blessings of wayward ULL's for any March treats, unless we get a 93 redux, and then will come those depressing Masters commercials that spell the demise of winter. I love the Masters but would rather they have it in June so it's coming wouldn't fill me with such dispair, lol. T

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Well, it is still another glorious day here in Savannah with bright, blue skies, a few cirrus roaming the sky, td's in the comfy mid-40's, and a refreshing west wind. Ahhhhhhh. I don't know that I'll get in a walk today, but I am sitting outside enjoying the sunshine and gorgeous wx. The bad news is that the first visible pollen is just now appearing and the first bugs have decided to make their appearance (wasps).

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The highest I saw in Asheville today was 68 so we were off the record, thought we might break the record 71 from 1897 I think it is but the overcast skies prevented that from happening.:arrowhead:

Looks like cloud cover saved indeed saved Asheville as the high was 71, recorded early this afternoon. Record was 72. Charlotte managed to tie the record at 78. However Greenville-Spartanburg shattered their record by 5 degrees with a high of 78.

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I bought a log splitter yesterday and gave it a good work out. Since I figure we are in the beginning of a mini ice age, I'm already looking beyond summer to a nice cold next winter :)Looking past summer is the only way I can stay sane, lol. Especially as the sun got real active this week, and that may shoot down my ice age scenario. Oh, well, I need some looking past practice as pretty soon we will be having to rely of the fickle blessings of wayward ULL's for any March treats, unless we get a 93 redux, and then will come those depressing Masters commercials that spell the demise of winter. I love the Masters but would rather they have it in June so it's coming wouldn't fill me with such dispair, lol. T

The past two winters have been amazing :wub: So........that's your secret huh? I will try this approach this year as I have been having trouble convincing myself it won't be hot and dry :lol: Got up to 80 today, just shy of the record, thankful for the clouds that rolled in when they did. Wayyyyy to warm for me in February :(

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End of February severe potential. :scooter:

...DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE...AND APPARENTLY UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN IS SETTING UP

BEGINNING AROUND TUE/D4 AS THE MODELS TRY TO HANDLE AN UPPER

TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA CA AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE

TROUGH FORECAST TO SINK SWD...OR RETROGRADE...ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC

AND WRN CONUS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A BROAD WSWLY FLOW REGIME

WILL ENCOMPASS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG UPPER

TROUGH/LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND ON TUE/D4. BEHIND THIS NE

TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS

THE ERN STATES WITH GULF MOISTURE SHUNTED OFFSHORE.

BY WED/D5...THE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN STATES...AND A

RETURN FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO TX WITH LOWER

TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH TX BY WED AFTERNOON.

FROM WED/D5 ONWARD IS WHERE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE

SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN BAJA CA

COAST BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE

AZ/NM BORDER WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS

WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. IF THE LATTER SOLUTION OCCURS...SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...AS

EARLY AS WED NIGHT...THEN SPREADING EWD ON THU WITH A POTENTIALLY

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO

THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW. THE GFS...BEING MUCH

SLOWER...DEVELOPS A SEVERE THREAT ON LATE THU OVER OK/TX...WITH A

MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ON THUR AFFECTING THE SRN

PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.

WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WED/D5 INTO THU/D6 FROM

THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW

TO INTRODUCE ANY OUTLOOK AREAS.

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Is it just me or does it seem like the severe droughts are usually confined to the southern half of the U.S. ? Why is that ?

Interestingly, the folks in southeast Montana have complained(the past 2-3 years excluded) of a rather long term drought there. Those folks are flyfishermen and depend on summer thaws to keep their rivers fresh during summer. It seems, though they are normal, that it is still a somewhat "fragile" norm. La Nina seems to be the culprit in E TN when it gets dry. El Ninos are wetter. Now, Foothills is the person to really comment on this as the drought in his area seems to be semi-pemanent regardless of the pattern.

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I worked outside today with the haze of smoke. We had a rather large brush fire between me and Cartersville today. I could see the smoke plume from Marietta. Its getting pretty dry out there. Last week I dug post holes with relative ease. Now the soil is still moist but not near as much as last week.

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