EmersonGA Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I told me wife last night that Ive never seen it warm up in mid February and stay warm through spring. It has to cool down in March one way or another. The NAO cant stay positive forever. Although it did stay negative for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I told me wife last night that Ive never seen it warm up in mid February and stay warm through spring. It has to cool down in March one way or another. The NAO cant stay positive forever. Although it did stay negative for a while. I know in NC I wouldn't be surprised to see it go straight to hell and stay there through October . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I told me wife last night that Ive never seen it warm up in mid February and stay warm through spring. It has to cool down in March one way or another. The NAO cant stay positive forever. Although it did stay negative for a while. I'm sure it'll cool down in March sometime, by cool i mean a return to highs in the 50s. I doubt we'll see any more highs in the 30s until next winter. Also, it wouldnt surprise me if the last freeze in Atlanta occurs before March 1st. Last year, I believe the last freeze occured at the very beginning of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Sounds like a year where we'll have a horrible spring freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Ugh. I can't help but agree with your sentiments on this. I am guessing the board traffic will die in response as well. Hopefully we get one more parting shot in March but otherwise it was a good run until now. Here is to severe weather season and hoping we have one this year. well if we could actually have a decent severe season, tropical season and a return to storms (like a return to winter!) the board would still be my first place to come. lol lately our summers are so hot, dry and boring that nothing happens for ages at a time its looking like winter is taking a hiatus for a couple of weeks (hopefully it returns in time for early march, but i dunno about that). wish it wouldnt but i guess i cant complain. maybe i will actually get some stuff done at work the next week or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Greg Fishel via Twitter a few minutes ago... "Sticking with my possible 80 degrees by week's end. Shouldn't say this, but could the mercury surpass 80? Hmmmmm..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It's still only February 11th. This is very early to count out snow and cold for our area. However; it looks toasty for a while. I will definitely enjoy the nice weather while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Greg Fishel via Twitter a few minutes ago... "Sticking with my possible 80 degrees by week's end. Shouldn't say this, but could the mercury surpass 80? Hmmmmm..." God I hope not! No torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Nice day up here got up to 44 after a low of 15. It feels great with full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I hope we get another snow, I hope the soil temperatures don't increase too much. Here is a site that has a good soil temperature map. http://www.agronational.com/weather/soil-temperature-map.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 The Euro and GFS have a weak Greenland ridge forming in the long term, and a deep trough south of the Aleutians/western Canada ridge, so eventually that teleconnects to turning cold and a supressed storm track for us. However, since its way out there, I wouldn't trust it that much yet until there's some consistency, just worth mentioning given the propensity of the NAO to go negative lately. Late next week looks toasty in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 The Euro and GFS have a weak Greenland ridge forming in the long term, and a deep trough south of the Aleutians/western Canada ridge, so eventually that teleconnects to turning cold and a supressed storm track for us. However, since its way out there, I wouldn't trust it that much yet until there's some consistency, just worth mentioning given the propensity of the NAO to go negative lately. Late next week looks toasty in the Southeast. Saw the same thing. I also noticed on the CPC page that the ensemble means for the NAO seem to dip to slighlty negative and then remain neutral. Maybe it's a signal that the NAO is heading back down. AO is still predominantly positive w/ one downward turn if note if I remember correctly. The operational models in general look cooler today in the medium range. I'd say someone may have a shot at a late winter/early spring storm before this is over, though none are on the map currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Saw the same thing. I also noticed on the CPC page that the ensemble means for the NAO seem to dip to slighlty negative and then remain neutral. Maybe it's a signal that the NAO is heading back down. AO is still predominantly positive w/ one downward turn if note if I remember correctly. The operational models in general look cooler today in the medium range. I'd say someone may have a shot at a late winter/early spring storm before this is over, though none are on the map currently. The -NAO is real, but we also have a bad Pacific pattern and a developing SE ridge. So this might be good for the NE, but not for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 The -NAO is real, but we also have a bad Pacific pattern and a developing SE ridge. So this might be good for the NE, but not for us. The PNA being negative stinks for sure, but it was negative in December as well. That said, the AO was in our favor in December along w/ the -NAO. The AO is not in our favor at the moment. FWIW NE TN can sometimes sneak in a little snow from those NE events where others in the SE might have trouble. Cheeznado, I just want to know if there is a chance? I've already started hibernating until next winter, but I am still peaking at the models. They do look more interesting towards late February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Cfs shows the block holdind for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Cfs shows the block holdind for March. Looks boring for a good while, I hate it worse when it cools enough that you can't enjoy the outside, and it's not cold enough for snow. That's probably what March will hold for alot of days, If the block comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Looks boring for a good while, I hate it worse when it cools enough that you can't enjoy the outside, and it's not cold enough for snow. That's probably what March will hold for alot of days, If the block comes back. thats exactly how it usually works out with any blocking very late in the Winter in the Southeast. I think some thought I was implying that I was calling for snow again in the Southeast, when actually I just said colder and a supressed storm track.That usually equates to rain in the Southeast in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 thats exactly how it usually works out with any blocking very late in the Winter in the Southeast. I think some thought I was implying that I was calling for snow again in the Southeast, when actually I just said colder and a supressed storm track.That usually equates to rain in the Southeast in March. Did not think you(edit) were implying that at all...I was implying that though. You mentioned a suppressed storm track, but did not mention snow. Suppressed storm tracks in March are usually cold and rainy in TN as well w/ a few storms scattered over the years. Not much to talk about during the doldrums. My weather time on the computer is down about 90%. Time to get back to Spring, unless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 The -NAO is real, but we also have a bad Pacific pattern and a developing SE ridge. So this might be good for the NE, but not for us. I really doubt the Southeast ridge is going to last very long after next week though. We'll see. Usually La Nina March's are extremely volatile. Its been a while since we've had that, and in this particular year I'd be suprised if a strong cutoff doesn't form somewhere in the vicinity of the Southeast in March. Did not think your were implying that at all...I was implying that though. You mentioned a suppressed storm track, but did not mention snow. Suppressed storm tracks in March are usually cold and rainy in TN as well w/ a few storms scattered over the years. Not much to talk about during the doldrums. My weather time on the computer is down about 90%. Time to get back to Spring, unless... Sorry I didn't mean you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I really doubt the Southeast ridge is going to last very long after next week though. We'll see. Usually La Nina March's are extremely volatile. Its been a while since we've had that, and in this particular year I'd be suprised if a strong cutoff doesn't form somewhere in the vicinity of the Southeast in March. Sorry I didn't mean you . Thanks for the good work Robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 March is a month where usually the mtns. will get a good snow or two, around wnc e.tenn and sw va., we'll see. we're just on the nw side of the storm for us to get a heavy wet snow while most everyone else gets a cold rain. enjoying the warm up for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 God I hope not! No torch! ugh, 80 in feb. certainly qualifies as a blow torch still holding out hope for one more pattern change before our time runs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Oh, come on...enjoy the warmth next week. I think we still have some real exciting wx for late Feb early March for most of south north of I-20. The long term models are showing some blocking developing then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Oh, come on...enjoy the warmth next week. I think we still have some real exciting wx for late Feb early March for most of south north of I-20. The long term models are showing some blocking developing then. plus we have had two snows the last two years the first week of march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 plus we have had two snows the last two years the first week of march This was my best "snow chase" last year and it was in March (The Sanford Mesoband with possible lightning and/or power flashes): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 This was my best "snow chase" last year and it was in March (The Sanford Mesoband with possible lightning and/or power flashes): Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Models are pointing to a warm up in the very near future Hopefully this is the end of winter....but then again it is still February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Models are pointing to a warm up in the very near future Hopefully this is the end of winter....but then again it is still February You might want to duck after saying that around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 nope not giving up on winter yet, lived here all my life and March is a crazy month, from shorts today to a snowstorm tomorrow, I mean really extreme. 70 and sunny today to heavy snow and 30 the next day. Models are pointing to a warm up in the very near future Hopefully this is the end of winter....but then again it is still February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Donsutherland's remarks on the upcoming pattern...post 169...potential return of the eastern trough during early March. link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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