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Here comes February 2011


BullCityWx

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I told me wife last night that Ive never seen it warm up in mid February and stay warm through spring. It has to cool down in March one way or another. The NAO cant stay positive forever. Although it did stay negative for a while.

I know in NC I wouldn't be surprised to see it go straight to hell and stay there through October :).

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I told me wife last night that Ive never seen it warm up in mid February and stay warm through spring. It has to cool down in March one way or another. The NAO cant stay positive forever. Although it did stay negative for a while.

I'm sure it'll cool down in March sometime, by cool i mean a return to highs in the 50s. I doubt we'll see any more highs in the 30s until next winter. Also, it wouldnt surprise me if the last freeze in Atlanta occurs before March 1st. Last year, I believe the last freeze occured at the very beginning of March.

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Ugh. I can't help but agree with your sentiments on this. I am guessing the board traffic will die in response as well. Hopefully we get one more parting shot in March but otherwise it was a good run until now. Here is to severe weather season and hoping we have one this year.

well if we could actually have a decent severe season, tropical season and a return to storms (like a return to winter!) the board would still be my first place to come. lol lately our summers are so hot, dry and boring that nothing happens for ages at a time

its looking like winter is taking a hiatus for a couple of weeks (hopefully it returns in time for early march, but i dunno about that). wish it wouldnt but i guess i cant complain. maybe i will actually get some stuff done at work the next week or two :guitar:

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The Euro and GFS have a weak Greenland ridge forming in the long term, and a deep trough south of the Aleutians/western Canada ridge, so eventually that teleconnects to turning cold and a supressed storm track for us. However, since its way out there, I wouldn't trust it that much yet until there's some consistency, just worth mentioning given the propensity of the NAO to go negative lately. Late next week looks toasty in the Southeast.

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The Euro and GFS have a weak Greenland ridge forming in the long term, and a deep trough south of the Aleutians/western Canada ridge, so eventually that teleconnects to turning cold and a supressed storm track for us. However, since its way out there, I wouldn't trust it that much yet until there's some consistency, just worth mentioning given the propensity of the NAO to go negative lately. Late next week looks toasty in the Southeast.

Saw the same thing. I also noticed on the CPC page that the ensemble means for the NAO seem to dip to slighlty negative and then remain neutral. Maybe it's a signal that the NAO is heading back down. AO is still predominantly positive w/ one downward turn if note if I remember correctly. The operational models in general look cooler today in the medium range. I'd say someone may have a shot at a late winter/early spring storm before this is over, though none are on the map currently.

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Saw the same thing. I also noticed on the CPC page that the ensemble means for the NAO seem to dip to slighlty negative and then remain neutral. Maybe it's a signal that the NAO is heading back down. AO is still predominantly positive w/ one downward turn if note if I remember correctly. The operational models in general look cooler today in the medium range. I'd say someone may have a shot at a late winter/early spring storm before this is over, though none are on the map currently.

The -NAO is real, but we also have a bad Pacific pattern and a developing SE ridge. So this might be good for the NE, but not for us.

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The -NAO is real, but we also have a bad Pacific pattern and a developing SE ridge. So this might be good for the NE, but not for us.

The PNA being negative stinks for sure, but it was negative in December as well. That said, the AO was in our favor in December along w/ the -NAO. The AO is not in our favor at the moment. FWIW NE TN can sometimes sneak in a little snow from those NE events where others in the SE might have trouble. Cheeznado, I just want to know if there is a chance? ;) I've already started hibernating until next winter, but I am still peaking at the models. They do look more interesting towards late February...

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Looks boring for a good while, I hate it worse when it cools enough that you can't enjoy the outside, and it's not cold enough for snow. :thumbsdown: That's probably what March will hold for alot of days, If the block comes back.

thats exactly how it usually works out with any blocking very late in the Winter in the Southeast. I think some thought I was implying that I was calling for snow again in the Southeast, when actually I just said colder and a supressed storm track.That usually equates to rain in the Southeast in March.

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thats exactly how it usually works out with any blocking very late in the Winter in the Southeast. I think some thought I was implying that I was calling for snow again in the Southeast, when actually I just said colder and a supressed storm track.That usually equates to rain in the Southeast in March.

Did not think you(edit) were implying that at all...I was implying that though. You mentioned a suppressed storm track, but did not mention snow. Suppressed storm tracks in March are usually cold and rainy in TN as well w/ a few storms scattered over the years. Not much to talk about during the doldrums. My weather time on the computer is down about 90%. Time to get back to Spring, unless...

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The -NAO is real, but we also have a bad Pacific pattern and a developing SE ridge. So this might be good for the NE, but not for us.

I really doubt the Southeast ridge is going to last very long after next week though. We'll see. Usually La Nina March's are extremely volatile. Its been a while since we've had that, and in this particular year I'd be suprised if a strong cutoff doesn't form somewhere in the vicinity of the Southeast in March.

Did not think your were implying that at all...I was implying that though. You mentioned a suppressed storm track, but did not mention snow. Suppressed storm tracks in March are usually cold and rainy in TN as well w/ a few storms scattered over the years. Not much to talk about during the doldrums. My weather time on the computer is down about 90%. Time to get back to Spring, unless...

Sorry I didn't mean you .

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I really doubt the Southeast ridge is going to last very long after next week though. We'll see. Usually La Nina March's are extremely volatile. Its been a while since we've had that, and in this particular year I'd be suprised if a strong cutoff doesn't form somewhere in the vicinity of the Southeast in March.

Sorry I didn't mean you .

Thanks for the good work Robertthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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nope not giving up on winter yet, lived here all my life and March is a crazy month, from shorts today to a snowstorm tomorrow, I mean really extreme. 70 and sunny today to heavy snow and 30 the next day.:snowman:

Models are pointing to a warm up in the very near future sun.gif Hopefully this is the end of winter....but then again it is still February

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