BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the 0z Euro looks like it has a big ticket item at the end of it's run tonight...major cold air damming across the carolinas and an expanding shield of precip across the gulf states. Definitely has the looks of a major winter storm across at least the mid south/NE GA/NW SC/Most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 February = Rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS (0z and 6z) also looks really cold going into the first of the month. Some indications of storms but the real story is the cold. I really can't believe the duration of cold we have seen the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW, JB just tweeted this Cold Feb 1-10 plains east could rival 1996 ( -7.15) or the big Kahuna 2007 (-8.85) made sure my client know.. now you do too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Posted a version of this in the main thread, but it is equally apropos to us and this topic - HPC's Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion this morning discusses an upcoming southeast ridge: THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST/TROUGH OVER THE EAST ON DAY 3 TOWARD A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 7. ... THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE MEANS INVOLVES THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 7...WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER THAN THE GEFS/NAEFS. However - CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. Something else to stir into the February stew, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I see the cold but will it lock in? That's quite a +NAO there on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I see the cold but will it lock in? That's quite a +NAO there on the latest run. I think we're heading for a PNA , but no block or -NAO so what should happen is fronts come through, we get super cold (maybe just mod. cold) and then a quick warmup, then we rinse and repeat. Its going to be luck of timing if a system can get in from the South with enough cold air to be ice or snow, but that would probably be a quick hitter, followed by the arctic front, cold for a couple days, warm up and repeat the process. The first warm up is later Friday and Saturday in the Southern and eastern parts of the country. Could be an almost balmy Saturday here LOL with the lakes low, enhancing southwest winds at the surface and warmer 850's. Nothing too tropical but it will feel much more like early Spring , after what we've been through. But that won't last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With the progged +NAO during a time, from what I gather, the Strat. warming is suppose to be influencing, could the models not be seeing this or is the sw affect coming on down the road? Robert, what's your take on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't look now. 12Z Euro has amazing massive Arctic outbreak with possible record lows 2/1-4!! Coldest since 2/1996? ATL 850 down to -21C, which ties record coldest 850! Uh oh!! Probably overdone, but shows what COULD happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't look now. 12Z Euro has amazing massive Arctic outbreak with possible record lows 2/1-3!! Coldest since 2/1996? ATL 850 down to -21C, which ties record coldest 850! Uh oh!! Probably overdone, but shows what COULD happen. Larry, what's happened to the GFS cold bias? Seems it's not as prominent lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Larry, what's happened to the GFS cold bias? Seems it's not as prominent lately. It isn't as prominent due to latest model mod. You're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't look now. 12Z Euro has amazing massive Arctic outbreak with possible record lows 2/1-4!! Coldest since 2/1996? ATL 850 down to -21C, which ties record coldest 850! Uh oh!! Probably overdone, but shows what COULD happen. More regarding the above post. The 2 meter temp., which is often warm biased, is 32 F as of 1 PM on THU 2/3 at FL/GA border !! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Holy ****... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 likely coldest ever Euro maps I've ever seen for the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Holy ****... whats the equation to translate this to the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 whats the equation to translate this to the surface? Being that's 7 am next Thursday, I gotta believe below zero for most the western 2/3rds of North Carolina and well below zero in the mountains. Due notherly winds...OUCH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 extremely cold = very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That would be in the single digits for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Holy ****... Can you post a link to where this comes from? Can't find it on my Euro site that I have bookmarked. Thanks in advance! Found it on Raleigh's page! Ignore me (not the Euro!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, that would mean all time record cold here. I calculated myself to be at -11.2F there...wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's impressive for sure. However hasn't the EURO advertised some impressive cold in the long range before? It seems like we've been forecasted to go into the single digits a couple times in the piedmont a few days out, but it never quite gets that cold. Usually the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, that would mean all time record cold here. I calculated myself to be at -11.2F there...wow.. If this were to somehow verify, numerous record lows would be broken. Keep in mind that those are 5,000 foot temp.'s not surface/two meter temp.'s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If this were to somehow verify, numerous record lows would be broken. Keep in mind that those are 5,000 foot temp.'s not surface/two meter temp.'s. I understand, but we haven't seen cold like that, well hell, I don't know when the last time we have see cold, that cold. It's not like we live in Minnesota.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's impressive for sure. However hasn't the EURO advertised some impressive cold in the long range before? It seems like we've been forecasted to go into the single digits a couple times in the piedmont a few days out, but it never quite gets that cold. Usually the teens. That's why this needs to be taken with a grain of salt as it represents the worst case scenario. The odds of something like that verifying have to be considered quite low due to it being so extreme as well as being so different from prior runs and it being way out in the 7-10 day period...i.e., largely for entertainment. But it surely is very entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 The euro's 2M temps never drop below zero anywhere in the foothills or piedmont, FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW the EURO says that anyone in far northern Georgia, and northwest of a line from GSP, CLT, GSO and RIC will struggle to get out of the teens Feb 3rd. Lows are not really all that impressive considering temperatures at 850mb, but 2M temps on the EURO can be screwy anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The euro's 2M temps never drop below freezing anywhere in the foothills or piedmont, FYI Jeremy,. You have to be looking at the wrong run. The entire state of NC stays below 32 the entire day of 2/3. Moreover, the 2 meter temp.'s are often warm biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Please refresh the maps. The map that Marion Wx posted is several days outdated and was stored in his cache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Jeremy,. You have to be looking at the wrong run. The entire state of NC stays below 32 the entire day of 2/3. Moreover, the 2 meter temp.'s are often warm biased. I meant below zero Larry, sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Jeremy,. You have to be looking at the wrong run. The entire state of NC stays below 32 the entire day of 2/3. Moreover, the 2 meter temp.'s are often warm biased. At 1 pm on 2/3 CLT around 20 deg per the Euro 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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