LakeEffectKing Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Let's get Randy back up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Let's get Randy back up here! You know, I was thinking the exact same thing... I have thanksgiving break off. I would totally join if this were to happen. I just might go anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Bring it! Updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Bring it! Updates? I'm in for the chase as long as its in the Buffalo southtowns or in parts of ski country =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Bring it! Updates? Holding pattern. I think by Tues. morning, we'll be able to give you a "nay", "yea" or "not sure" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Whether it's this week or not... we definitely need to do a LES chase. I missed the '07 chase and have been itching to do that. Andy even mentioned it the other day I saw. I get my brief vicarious thrills here when the sweep takes a band down through here (maybe a 30 minute +SN burst) then adios, but never been in a true plume for hours and hours on end. Holding pattern. I think by Tues. morning, we'll be able to give you a "nay", "yea" or "not sure" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Two of us from SW Ohio are planning on coming up Friday afternoon, have been planning it since mid last week. Hoping the trough gets hung up enough NE of the lakes to keep favorable persistent fetches. Will be following this thread in the meantime. This will be our first LES chase. Will be a nice change of pace from spring chasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 I think you should stay home Randy! Once again, I think we are victims to the inherent errors that come with modling pieces of energy (which effect the overall downstream pattern) that reside well off the W. coast or other areas of sparse data.....5-10 days out. We went from a full latitude trough/large cutoff 3 days ago, to a very progressive strong trough passage...ie potential blockbuster event squished down to MAYBE a few spots reaching 8-10"......quite ordinarily hum-drum for these parts this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I think you should stay home Randy! Once again, I think we are victims to the inherent errors that come with modling pieces of energy (which effect the overall downstream pattern) that reside well off the W. coast or other areas of sparse data.....5-10 days out. We went from a full latitude trough/large cutoff 3 days ago, to a very progressive strong trough passage...ie potential blockbuster event squished down to MAYBE a few spots reaching 8-10"......quite ordinarily hum-drum for these parts this time of year. disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Lol we will be in the first week of december scratching our heads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I think you should stay home Randy! Once again, I think we are victims to the inherent errors that come with modling pieces of energy (which effect the overall downstream pattern) that reside well off the W. coast or other areas of sparse data.....5-10 days out. We went from a full latitude trough/large cutoff 3 days ago, to a very progressive strong trough passage...ie potential blockbuster event squished down to MAYBE a few spots reaching 8-10"......quite ordinarily hum-drum for these parts this time of year. Yeah, I'm gonna bail on this one...saw that possibility yesterday. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah, I'm gonna bail on this one...saw that possibility yesterday. Oh well. Wimp! I think perhaps in 7-9 days may be another decent chance and again circa December 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 I think you should stay home Randy! Once again, I think we are victims to the inherent errors that come with modling pieces of energy (which effect the overall downstream pattern) that reside well off the W. coast or other areas of sparse data.....5-10 days out. We went from a full latitude trough/large cutoff 3 days ago, to a very progressive strong trough passage...ie potential blockbuster event squished down to MAYBE a few spots reaching 8-10"......quite ordinarily hum-drum for these parts this time of year. Maybe you might want to cancel the above trip cancel! Quite a filp flop flip with the models the last few days! If things stay as robust for 12z runs, you may still want to make a go! And the southtowns of BUF get creamed this time of year on this type of progged flow! Or if you want to head back up to the Cracker Barrel (or a bit inland from there (up in elevation)) just south of Watertown, that'd be a potential winner too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PLUMES SHOULD INTENSIFY DUE TO INCREASED SHORELINE CONVERGENCE. THE ACTIVITIY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE INITIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON POSITIONS...WITH SRN ERIE COUNTY/NRN CHAUT AND CATT COUNTIES BEING THE FOCUS FOR LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TUG HILL WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GIVE SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES AND EVEN EARLY FOR ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO SAY THAT PLOWABLE ACCUMUATIONS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN THE RELATIVE `WARMTH` OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER...THE HEIGHT OF THE CAP...AND CLIMATOLOGY...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE PLUMES WILL GENERATE SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. ANY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GRAUPEL AND/OR SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PLUMES SHOULD INTENSIFY DUE TO INCREASED SHORELINE CONVERGENCE. THE ACTIVITIY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE INITIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON POSITIONS...WITH SRN ERIE COUNTY/NRN CHAUT AND CATT COUNTIES BEING THE FOCUS FOR LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TUG HILL WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GIVE SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES AND EVEN EARLY FOR ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO SAY THAT PLOWABLE ACCUMUATIONS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN THE RELATIVE `WARMTH` OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER...THE HEIGHT OF THE CAP...AND CLIMATOLOGY...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE PLUMES WILL GENERATE SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. ANY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GRAUPEL AND/OR SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR. Go for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I'll be at the Chautauqua Institute Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. This will probably wreck the steelhead fishing on Chautauqua Creek, but the sledding conditions could be fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Go for it Definitly go for it. Thundersnow is an awesome exoierence. Expierenced tons of it in October 2006, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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