Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread

[WxMan1]

Another snow increase at ORF...up to 11" now...almost a guarantee they'll break a foot !

[jlewis1111]

so which model did the best with storm long and short term?

[weathervswife]

Inudaw...

That's exactly what was concerning us this time yesterday. That sharp gradient w-e in terms of going from 4-6" to amounts WAAAY over 6". I live in SE Chesterfield (Chester) and I'm hearing reports of 5.5-6.5". Meanwhile west of Powhatan and Goochland...a lot less (poor Weatherswife....but that's why we weren't so "quick" in throwing Louisa/Fluvanna in a watch yesterday...we all worried about that dry air N-NW).

Meanwhile, after all of this, it appears 4-6" for the RIC corridor (give or take an inch) will work out fine. 18Z NAM and 15Z SREF yesterday were pretty good for central VA. What's so frustrating for all of us here in central/eastern VA from a snow forecast perspective is the often "disconnect" we see with the warm advection bands, the "lull", and the eventual mid lvl deformation. When you get to NJ and northward, the system is so wound up that there is very little disconnect in the precip shield. We often don't have that luxury. At least where I live, over the past several snow events, there has been a much longer "lull" in forcing/precip between the WAA stuff and eventual dynamical bands. The models just don't do a very good job with that...they're often to "smooth" with the QPF output, especially being very "liberal" with the 0.25-0.50" contours. NAM12 is somewhat better, but only in the near term.

Thanks for all the reports fellas; keep 'em coming.

Well done by the way!! I agreed with everything you were saying yesterday, but was just frustrated being on the outside looking in. You gotta admit the pic in my avatar is kind of funny though, right? BTW, it's still snowing out here, so you just watch yourself...

[WxMan1]

so which model did the best with storm long and short term?

Long term? Ugh! Don't ask. Maybe one of you guys can write a paper on that. Euro so consistent earlier in the week...then loses the system (weaker/offshore)...while the GFS picks it up.

Short term...probably the SREF...though (again) the QPF field from the SREF is often too "broad" west to east. 12Z NAM yesterday did NOT have enough deformation axis snow into ern VA, though the 18Z NAM did catch on a bit.

We (NWS) are obviously going to be on the low end in terms of amounts east of Wakefield. BUT, we can all take solice in the fact that we got the "sweet spot" area nailed pretty well...while drying things out fairly rapidly west of I-95. When we briefed the EMs, we noted while deterministic amounts were in the 6-12" range, there would assuredly be the potential for more (depending on convective bands).

[Suffolkweather]

5-6" on the ground in downtown Suffolk; we didn't accumulate too fast last night.

What broken ruler are you using? I'm only 5 miles from downtown and have 15+..dont know since I haven't measured since noon,,, nut had 12.7 up til then.

[WxMan1]

Well done by the way!! I agreed with everything you were saying yesterday, but was just frustrated being on the outside looking in. You gotta admit the pic in my avatar is kind of funny though, right? BTW, it's still snowing out here, so you just watch yourself...

It's a post card here at AKQ. Around 10". I wish I could bring it west with me later today!

[Suffolkweather]

Another snow increase at ORF...up to 11" now...almost a guarantee they'll break a foot !

Might make the top 5 all-time!

[D-Money]

14" now! BTW is the storm slowing down due to it being captured or is it just the pinwheel effect creating the slow down? Anyway, heavy snow still! I see 16" as a high probability here. Just opened my first beer!

Can't wait to hear what your final total will be.

[VAB1]

now i know what march 1980 was like. never thought i would see anything close.

This is a great one for Hampton Roads but it still doesn't rate with March 1-3, 1980. The thing that set that storm apart was 1) how cold it was (20-25 degrees throughout the event) which made for a very, very powdery snow and 2) the incredible, incredible blowing and drifting of the snow. The wind in that storm was about as strong as any I've seen in this area, Isabel, Bonnie, last year's nor'easter included. Now if this storm stalls and bombs out it may get there but it's not there yet.

[Suffolkweather]

9.5-10 on driveway here in VB.

12-13" in the grass (which I count b/c I'm a weenie)

You don't factor the driveway! everyone should just stick a wooden board out in the middle of the yard somewhere and use that. We need consistent measurements, so the reports are more credible/realistic. .

[Portsmouth Weather]

Just measured again and have about 13.5 inches on average where I'm at in Chesapeake. Seems in-line with everyone else. Temp 29.1

[jlewis1111]

just sick amounts down there wow

[Suffolkweather]

now i know what march 1980 was like. never thought i would see anything close.

Uhhh... not quite 1980. I wouldn't even put this in the same class. I had drifts over my cars and fences (6 foot drifts) in that storm the temp was 17 with winds over 50. Airport observations were a joke then. I lived in VB then and we easily had 24". We did not have nearly the same resolution of observations we are accustomed to now, with forums like this helping.

This has been a great storm and fun to watch/track and it is historic for ORF (top 5 probably), but it doesn't compare to the 1980 storm (for me it doesn't).

[WxMan1]

You don't factor the driveway! everyone should just stick a wooden board out in the middle of the yard somewhere and use that. We need consistent measurements, so the reports are more credible/realistic. .

+1

If no wooden board, the next best thing is your vehicle hood, ASSUMING is had not been running for the duration of the event!

Thanks again for the reports, guys!!

[CarolineWx]

Been snowing here all morning but it been mostly light snow and has not add it up much, hopefully i can get another inch this afternoon, i got 1.5 on Saturday and another 1.5 today so far so 3 inches is the total so far.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Inudaw...

That's exactly what was concerning us this time yesterday. That sharp gradient w-e in terms of going from 4-6" to amounts WAAAY over 6". I live in SE Chesterfield (Chester) and I'm hearing reports of 5.5-6.5". Meanwhile west of Powhatan and Goochland...a lot less (poor Weatherswife....but that's why we weren't so "quick" in throwing Louisa/Fluvanna in a watch yesterday...we all worried about that dry air N-NW).

Meanwhile, after all of this, it appears 4-6" for the RIC corridor (give or take an inch) will work out fine. 18Z NAM and 15Z SREF yesterday were pretty good for central VA. What's so frustrating for all of us here in central/eastern VA from a snow forecast perspective is the often "disconnect" we see with the warm advection bands, the "lull", and the eventual mid lvl deformation. When you get to NJ and northward, the system is so wound up that there is very little disconnect in the precip shield. We often don't have that luxury. At least where I live, over the past several snow events, there has been a much longer "lull" in forcing/precip between the WAA stuff and eventual dynamical bands. The models just don't do a very good job with that...they're often to "smooth" with the QPF output, especially being very "liberal" with the 0.25-0.50" contours. NAM12 is somewhat better, but only in the near term.

Thanks for all the reports fellas; keep 'em coming.

great post really sums it up

[Suffolkweather]

+1

If no wooden board, the next best thing is your vehicle hood, ASSUMING is had not been running for the duration of the event!

Thanks again for the reports, guys!!

Yeah...but it shouldn't' be in a "protected" area,,, should be out in the open a little. Need to take 5-10 measurements throughout your yard and average them, but don't measure the snow on your "stove"...for goodness sakes!

[Suffolkweather]

Brian... What's the feeling on how the energy creating the snow in TN/AL will propagate east and affect our area later?

[Zeromus-X]

What broken ruler are you using? I'm only 5 miles from downtown and have 15+..dont know since I haven't measured since noon,,, nut had 12.7 up til then.

9" on our glass patio table in the middle of the yard, and that seems about like what's on everything else. Just measured one minute ago. I'm about one mile from downtown/Wal-Mart area.

Around 3 AM, I only had about an inch and a half here, which seemed odd since I was in Chesapeake before that and there had to be 3" or so by that time.

[Inudaw]

Went around the yard just now... still light/moderate snow falling.

Took 10 samples from areas.

Car hoods: 4.5"

Wooden board out in the side yard.. 4.75"

Grassy surfaces: 5 to 6" Depending on how much was left over before the snow started ;x.

Drive way: 3.5"

Decks: 5.5" some 6"

[crainjd]

+1

If no wooden board, the next best thing is your vehicle hood, ASSUMING is had not been running for the duration of the event!

Thanks again for the reports, guys!!

no other choice for me. Car in garage, no flat table out in the open, so driveway and/or grass is all I got to work with.

[Suffolkweather]

9" on our glass patio table in the middle of the yard, and that seems about like what's on everything else. Just measured one minute ago. I'm about one mile from downtown/Wal-Mart area.

Around 3 AM, I only had about an inch and a half here, which seemed odd since I was in Chesapeake before that and there had to be 3" or so by that time.

I live down near lake cohoon rd (off pitchkettle). I had 5.8" at 7am. the problem with using elevated surfaces like that is it is subject to wind sweeping snow off the top from time to time. Also, if you have trees around. they "protect" the area... I know not everyone has wide open spaces to use, but it does make a difference. I have two sections on my property. the section around my house sits 300 feet off the road and I have lots of trees that surround the house. this morning when I measured my board near my house I had 4". I also have the area out by the main road that is unprotected and open.... There I measured over 6" on a board. The average was 5.8". I have planers, tables, etc.. around too and they still only measure about 11" or so, because snow continually blows off of them or they are in more "protected" areas.

Sorry, I take it seriously especially since we don't get to do this very often. Fun stuff!

[Coach McGuirk]

14 here

[Martin]

Almost at a foot here!! WOW!

[rainstorm]

13.5 here.

[Kevin Druff]

<br />14 here<br />

Definitely no lore bitching. And I want my cigars as you definitely exceeded 3" LOL.

[DMADKAT]

Uhhh... not quite 1980. I wouldn't even put this in the same class. I had drifts over my cars and fences (6 foot drifts) in that storm the temp was 17 with winds over 50. Airport observations were a joke then. I lived in VB then and we easily had 24". We did not have nearly the same resolution of observations we are accustomed to now, with forums like this helping.

This has been a great storm and fun to watch/track and it is historic for ORF (top 5 probably), but it doesn't compare to the 1980 storm (for me it doesn't).

I totally agree, I (coastalbecs's) father was 18 years old then and that storm was a true blizzard, high 50+ winds ,17 degrees , and car burrying drifts ! This snow does beat the 15 inch snow of 1989 because that was a wet snow and it was 33 degrees for most of the event. also the snow compacted , as I ONLY MEASURED ten inches at one time on the ground. I got 14.5 inches on the ground right now with this storm and its still snowing!

[Martin]

Snow increasing rapidly, 1 inch(es) fell this hour, 12 inch(es) now on the ground

1 FOOT at ORF :thumbsup:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KORF.html

[twodogs]

DT come get your snow shield. 4" here in Aylett. mod precip has been all around us.

[DJnVa]

I've been using the car hood for my measurements....12.5 and that was about an hour ago.