WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://raleighwx.ame...efp24_NE048.gif I would trust this over the NAM and GFS QPF as of now. Also, DT just posted that he isn't worried about the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br />Thanks Kevin! It's been a great day for sure! <img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/thumbsupsmileyanim.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /><br /><br /><br />Yup. You didn't have to stay up until q1:00 am to see the Euro, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wxrisk.com 12z GGEM BOMB eastern va DELMARVA NH NYC into eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Yup. You didn't have to stay up until q1:00 am to see the Euro, LOL. Actually, it's more like around 10:30am when 00z comes out due to the time difference. And I didn't even bother coz I had sort've given up on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 we are now under a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wxrisk.com 12z GGEM BOMB eastern va DELMARVA NH NYC into eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1202 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ087>097-252200- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0007.101226T0000Z-101227T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0006.101226T0000Z-101227T0000Z/ NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-BERTIE-CHOWAN- PERQUIMANS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON- ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK- CHESAPEAKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...AHOSKIE... ELIZABETH CITY...EDENTON...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD...WILLIAMSBURG... POQUOSON...FRANKLIN...NEWPORT NEWS...HAMPTON 1202 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME ALL SNOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO INTO SUNDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATION: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Excellent points! It will be very interesting to see how this evolves and the final outcome.....and which model, if any at all, performed the best. Certainly lots to learn from this event. I am still holding my breath. You ain't kidding, Junkie! The models up to this point have been a head scratcher, to say the least. Have any of you ever seen one extended model (Euro) for DAYS lock on to such a deep low off the coast...only to lose it a few days before the event...while another extended model (GFS) showed basically a flizzard up until 36+ hours before the event? Meanwhile the NAM is having issues with the dry air entrainment from the north on Sun (or could this be reality, at least to some extent) ?? Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT says GGEM has us +1.00 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 we are now under a warning nope no love for vb still under a Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 nope no love for vb still under a Watch for now. they are still concerned about mixing here. WSW HAS BEEN UPDATED...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADED TO WRNG FOR MUCH OF NE NC...AND SE VA AS AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW APPEARS QUITE LIKELY...WITH 6-10" OF SNOW A DECENT POSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You ain't kidding, Junkie! The models up to this point have been a head scratcher, to say the least. Have any of you ever seen one extended model (Euro) for DAYS lock on to such a deep low off the coast...only to lose it a few days before the event...while another extended model (GFS) showed basically a flizzard up until 36+ hours before the event? Meanwhile the NAM is having issues with the dry air entrainment from the north on Sun (or could this be reality, at least to some extent) ?? Unreal. But I should still get more than "less the one inch" correct? BTW, it's actually snowing moderately out here now in Fluvanna and I noticed the echoes in central Kentucky are expanding and not shrinking. Hopefully, that would argue against the NAM. We'll see, but at least throw me a WWA soon. I've been a good boy-man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Get there! http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=akq&product=N0R&loop=yes Some snow should start in the Richmond metro area in the next 3 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z Euro 996mb just east of HAT. 850mb < 0 all the way to the coast in VA but close. Looks epic for interior SE VA, maybe all the way to VAB/ORF if it can stay all snow here. The biggest area wide snowfall since 2/24/89 or at least 1/3/02 seems likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z euro rough guesses ric 0.70" orf 1.0" dc 0.50" lyh 0.40" cho 0.30" ezf 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z Euro 996mb just east of HAT. 850mb < 0 all the way to the coast in VA but close. Looks epic for interior SE VA, maybe all the way to VAB/ORF if it can stay all snow here. The biggest area wide snowfall since 2/24/89 or at least 1/3/02 seems likely now. perfect set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z Euro 996mb just east of HAT. 850mb < 0 all the way to the coast in VA but close. Looks epic for interior SE VA, maybe all the way to VAB/ORF if it can stay all snow here. The biggest area wide snowfall since 2/24/89 or at least 1/3/02 seems likely now. 12z Euro supports 6-10" for interior SE VA. 4-8 for ORF. Looks more & more likely mixing will be an issue tomorrow morning closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 for now. they are still concerned about mixing here. WSW HAS BEEN UPDATED...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADED TO WRNG FOR MUCH OF NE NC...AND SE VA AS AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW APPEARS QUITE LIKELY...WITH 6-10" OF SNOW A DECENT POSSIBILITY. the nws reasoning makes NO sense .. but if you knew what I knew.... any way .....if there are concerns arbout Mixing then that Implies a closer to the coast track and much more snow well inland you cannot in this type of situation go for possible mix in ORF and V beach then 3-6 for RIC... Hello McFly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z Euro supports 6-10" for interior SE VA. 4-8 for ORF. Looks more & more likely mixing will be an issue tomorrow morning closer to the coast. unelss you mean right at the beach / waters edge the 12z euor NOTHING like that all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z euro rough guesses ric 0.70" orf 1.0" dc 0.50" lyh 0.40" cho 0.30" ezf 0.50" using the 12:1 ration of NWSFO AKQ ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z euro rough guesses ric 0.70" orf 1.0" dc 0.50" lyh 0.40" cho 0.30" ezf 0.50" Good guesses... Here are the "real" amounts ..... RIC = .62" ORF = .83" LYH = .45" CHO = .22" EZF = .36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z NAM is a lot less than 4-8" for ORF. QPF doesn't even get to .50, that would be 2-4" at best. It's obvious now that there will be no complete consensus with the models on this thing. Good luck to the forecasters, they're going to need it. Not at all.... u should be able to see that given how big the Low is the lack of precip on the west and nw side makes NO sense Moroever the 0z NAM also never had as Much precip on the nw and west side as say the GFS MM5 RGEM SREF and GFS. so the 12z nam was no surprise... even though you seem to be shocked by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WSW HAS BEEN UPDATED...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADED TO WRNG FOR MUCH OF NE NC...AND SE VA AS AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW APPEARS QUITE LIKELY...WITH 6-10" OF SNOW A DECENT POSSIBILITY. SURROUNDING THIS ZONE THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND EXPANDED IT A FEW CNTYS FARTHER NW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL THOUGH...THE PIEDMNT CNTYS N OF 460 DO NOT LOOK TO BE IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR WRNG CRITERIA SNOW...EVEN THE WETTER/SNOWIER 12Z GFS ONLY YIELDS ABOUT 3" SNOW FOR CUMBERLAND/LOUISA/FLUVANNA/GOOCHLAND...WHILE THE NAM WOULD BE MORE LIKE 1-2". FOR THE EXTREME SE OF VA (VA BCH) AND CURRITUCK NC LEFT THE WATCH IN EFFECT...MODEL LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW...BUT CLIMATOLOGY ALWAYS SEEMS TO BRING MIX OF SLEET AND/OR A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FARTHER THAN ANTICIPATED AND A SOLID SHOT OF ENE WIND WILL BRING THE MARINE INFLUENCE. THESE AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT SNOW...POSSIBLY A LOT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND MAKE A DECISION PRIOR TO THE 4PM AFTN PACKAGE. NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA/ERN SHORE...KEEPING IN THE WATCH FOR NOW AS ONSET OF ACCUM PRECIP IS A BIT LATER...BUT MOST OF THIS ARE LOOKS TO BE IN FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT...LOCALLY 10"+ BEFORE ENDING SUN NGT/MON.-- End Changed Discussion -- Looks like guidance says snow for VB, but AKQ still worried about history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 using the 12:1 ration of NWSFO AKQ ..... What you think? Might have to use 8:1 for ORF/VB?? Euro thickness are borderline for those areas from 12z-16z and seems to be supported by other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good guesses... Here are the "real" amounts ..... RIC = .62" ... about 8" ORF = .83" about 11 or 11 LYH = .45" .... about 6 CHO = .22" .... about 3 or 4 EZF = .36" .... about 4-5 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 again the reasoning makes NO sense mix on the se coast means mroe snow further inland WSW HAS BEEN UPDATED...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADED TO WRNG FOR MUCH OF NE NC...AND SE VA AS AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW APPEARS QUITE LIKELY...WITH 6-10" OF SNOW A DECENT POSSIBILITY. SURROUNDING THIS ZONE THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND EXPANDED IT A FEW CNTYS FARTHER NW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL THOUGH...THE PIEDMNT CNTYS N OF 460 DO NOT LOOK TO BE IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR WRNG CRITERIA SNOW...EVEN THE WETTER/SNOWIER 12Z GFS ONLY YIELDS ABOUT 3" SNOW FOR CUMBERLAND/LOUISA/FLUVANNA/GOOCHLAND...WHILE THE NAM WOULD BE MORE LIKE 1-2". FOR THE EXTREME SE OF VA (VA BCH) AND CURRITUCK NC LEFT THE WATCH IN EFFECT...MODEL LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW...BUT CLIMATOLOGY ALWAYS SEEMS TO BRING MIX OF SLEET AND/OR A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FARTHER THAN ANTICIPATED AND A SOLID SHOT OF ENE WIND WILL BRING THE MARINE INFLUENCE. THESE AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT SNOW...POSSIBLY A LOT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND MAKE A DECISION PRIOR TO THE 4PM AFTN PACKAGE. NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA/ERN SHORE...KEEPING IN THE WATCH FOR NOW AS ONSET OF ACCUM PRECIP IS A BIT LATER...BUT MOST OF THIS ARE LOOKS TO BE IN FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT...LOCALLY 10"+ BEFORE ENDING SUN NGT/MON.-- End Changed Discussion -- Looks like guidance says snow for VB, but AKQ still worried about history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the nws reasoning makes NO sense .. but if you knew what I knew.... any way .....if there are concerns arbout Mixing then that Implies a closer to the coast track and much more snow well inland you cannot in this type of situation go for possible mix in ORF and V beach then 3-6 for RIC... Hello McFly? http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/midatlanticWeek.php#tabs Maybe because this shows mixing tonight and early Sunday. Looks weird because its snowing to the south in NE NC and raining in VB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 like taking candy from a Baby jesus h .... More tweaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Precip movg NE acr NC/cntrl VA will not make it to ORF today. I see many calling for snow amounts greater than 3-6" for ORF/VB, but hesitant to go that route with recent NAM guidance amd big QPF in recent 12z GFS. 18z NAM trending will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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