retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New nam somewhat heartbreaking. Has 996 off hateras, but cold air swallows us up on this run. Not good indication inside 24hrs. You are spot on and we have seen this before (last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wes doesn't buy the NAM at all....and it's snowing here on Christmas morning. Good luck everyone and Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 well, with mixing issues now showing up on gfs we really need a east shift. i assume the nam is further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z NAM is a lot less than 4-8" for ORF. QPF doesn't even get to .50, that would be 2-4" at best. It's obvious now that there will be no complete consensus with the models on this thing. Good luck to the forecasters, they're going to need it. correct my bad--misread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 well, with mixing issues now showing up on gfs we really need a east shift. i assume the nam is further east? slightly, but sys doesn't appear to get going til east of VB. Elongated center off SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New nam 2-4" for orf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Guys, the 06z NAM lagged QPF as well. The NAM has been the worst on this storm and especially in regards to QPF compared to the EURO, GFS, and SREFS. Don't sweat it. It's going to snow and 4-8 inches is likely at the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Once again we are waiting for another run to see where the swagger is. Just can't bite on big GFS numbers with NAM so far under. I will stay conservative for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's been said once, but I'll mention it again, please go into your profile and list your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 here is dt's map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Guys, the 06z NAM lagged QPF as well. The NAM has been the worst on this storm and especially in regards to QPF compared to the EURO, GFS, and SREFS. Don't sweat it. It's going to snow and 4-8 inches is likely at the least! I have been burned by GFS numbers as often too high on this type event (west of track) A compromise 4-8" I can live with, but low level (18z+ Sun) will keep numbers down unless storm winds up quicker off NC/SC coast and dynamics can counter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 here is dt's map: http://www.facebook....129478830432717 This is a very reasonable map. Perhaps ORF should make the 12+ inch but hey I will take 8+. BTW the NWS mentions a possibility for Bay effect which could help ORF, Chesapeake and northern VA Beach make out a bit better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is a very reasonable map. Perhaps ORF should make the 12+ inch but hey I will take 8+. BTW the NWS mentions a possibility for Bay effect which could help ORF, Chesapeake and northern VA Beach make out a bit better as well. The snow chart infers wrap around and a stronger/slower sys than NAM leaning at moment. All High IMO.. I do hop I am wrong though for the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WSW just went up in Charlottesville. However, I'm still east in Fluvanna county with not even a WWA from AKQ....again. I want to be adopted by Sterling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br />From MA originally.. Stow/Maynard.. Welcome to the mid-south. Grew up mentored by Don Kent WBZ<br /><br /><br /><br />My dad lives pretty close to there. Groton, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> My dad lives pretty close to there. Groton, MA. Ahh Yes. RT 119.. Wife grew up in Littleton,, Have a wonderful Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 channel 10 has the same thing stuck. dare co wwa, dare county wsw. cant someone fix that? channel 13 has the same 11 pm last night news running on cable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 channel 10 has the same thing stuck. dare co wwa, dare county wsw. cant someone fix that? channel 13 has the same 11 pm last night news running on cable. I'm sure they will be in later to address everything in the meantime they are enjoying time with their family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 More tweaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looks like a nam/GFS compromise. 12z GFS about 40-50% less QPF over orf. Coming back to NAM which is farther east and weaker initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That's down a tad in Chesapeake...from 6.6 to 6.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The potential output of this storm seems like it would be similar to that of February 16, 1996 and January 24-25, 2000. Areas in the tidewater really took a hit with these storms. I would be very happy if I was living in Charles City, Providence Forge, King William, West Point, Tappahannock, etc. If anyone gets over 10-12" it's likely gonna be within this corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WSW just went up in Charlottesville. However, I'm still east in Fluvanna county with not even a WWA from AKQ....again. I want to be adopted by Sterling. The problem is the wettest model (GFS) shows 3-4" in Fluvanna. (SREF qpf fields are often to broad with the 6-hourly 0.1 and 0.25" amounts). 3-4" is advisory/borderline warning criteria, so the upshot is with the afternoon package your area will either be in an advisory or warning. The NAM is a concern folks. We had an event a couple winters ago where that dry air to the north entrained all the way into HR and put the kabosh on what would have been a decent event. Note that the 12Z GFS is "tighter" with the QPF field...i.e. with the 6 hourly .10 and .25" contours pushed a little farther E. That's not to say RIC isn't under the gun for a decent event (even the latest GFS gives RIC 7-8"). I would just be wary of the trends over the next 12-18 hrs. KEEP AN EYE on that north-side deformation axis of snow/no snow over central and eastern TN. We NEED to keep that dry axis far enough N-NW to give areas nw of the RIC metro region a shot at a decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's SREF look like? Don't pay so much attention to QPF at this point on NAM and GFS. Look at trends on RUC and SREF and actual radar which is looking nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 By the way, the phasing is occurring now. WV is really beginning to blow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmiser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The potential output of this storm seems like it would be similar to that of February 16, 1996 and January 24-25, 2000. Areas in the tidewater really took a hit with these storms. I would be very happy if I was living in Charles City, Providence Forge, King William, West Point, Tappahannock, etc. If anyone gets over 10-12" it's likely gonna be within this corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The problem is the wettest model (GFS) shows 3-4" in Fluvanna. (SREF qpf fields are often to broad with the 6-hourly 0.1 and 0.25" amounts). 3-4" is advisory/borderline warning criteria, so the upshot is with the afternoon package your area will either be in an advisory or warning. The NAM is a concern folks. We had an event a couple winters ago where that dry air to the north entrained all the way into HR and put the kabosh on what would have been a decent event. Note that the 12Z GFS is "tighter" with the QPF field...i.e. with the 6 hourly .10 and .25" contours pushed a little farther E. That's not to say RIC isn't under the gun for a decent event (even the latest GFS gives RIC 7-8"). I would just be wary of the trends over the next 12-18 hrs. KEEP AN EYE on that north-side deformation axis of snow/no snow over central and eastern TN. We NEED to keep that dry axis far enough N-NW to give areas nw of the RIC metro region a shot at a decent snowfall. Excellent points! It will be very interesting to see how this evolves and the final outcome.....and which model, if any at all, performed the best. Certainly lots to learn from this event. I am still holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br />Excellent points! It will be very interesting to see how this evolves and the final outcome.....and which model, if any at all, performed the best. Certainly lots to learn from this event. I am still holding my breath. <img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/weight_lift.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /><br /><br /><br />A merry Christmas to all you boys and girls over there. We appreciate all of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> A merry Christmas to all you boys and girls over there. We appreciate all of you. Thanks Kevin! It's been a great day for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/09zsrefp24_NE048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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