mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 you guys need a new thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Using 06z NAM I don't see accum snow before 06z Sun. save Suffolk WNW to Ric SE VA gets going quickly after 0300L with 1-2" acum by 12z Sunday. Agreed. I really just meant by what I said of timing, is that the earliest possible accum snows would not start til after 8pm tonite. I'm still holding out for a white Christmas! It will be close officially at ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 you guys need a new thread! several have wanted to just have one thread all winter, we'll play it by ear merry christmas mitchnick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 we need a new sub-head too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What does Bufkit soundings show for ORF on the GFS? I am not worried as it seems the most west model. Still interesting in what the worst case scenario shows. Those SREF's are really looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I hear ya. Its just fun to look at the numbers and see what the potential is given the models interpertation. Safe bet right now is 4-8", but if the models stay were they are at with 12z. 9-13" will be a good bet and with progged 850 temps. You could make a good case for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Morning thoughts... It has been a wonderful night for the models (trending in the right direction in a fairly big way). If the storm proves as large as the GFS is suggesting, the GFS will have scored an epic coup with its sudden recognition of the event yesterday. As I'll be heading out to visit family and will likely miss multiple model runs ( ), I'll post my preliminary estimates for select cities: Allentown: 3"-6" Baltimore: 4"-8" Boston: 12"-18" Harrisburg: 3"-6" Hartford: 6"-12" Islip: 7"-14" New York City: 6"-12" Norfolk: 4"-8" Philadelphia: 5"-10" Providence: 8"-16" Richmond: 4"-8" Washington, DC: 4"-8" Per Don S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What does Bufkit soundings show for ORF on the GFS? I am not worried as it seems the most west model. Still interesting in what the worst case scenario shows. Those SREF's are really looking good! 6z gfs has 1.29" qpf for ORF. Gfs indicates sleet mix issue at hieght of storm. Nam indicated no sleet issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 6z gfs has 1.29" qpf for ORF. Gfs indicates sleet mix issue at hieght of storm. Nam indicated no sleet issue. Yeah it is real close, but I agree with CSNAVY that at the coast it could limit accums but a few miles inland is where the big stuff will be. 850 line gets to VA NC boarder on 06z GFS but that is fine for ORF. Let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randylee Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Serious? Merry Christmas Be prepared not to do anything for the next 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Also, DT speaks the word of Blizzard warnings possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Also, DT speaks the word of Blizzard warnings possible Where does he say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Also, DT speaks the word of Blizzard warnings possible where is his map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT on Facebook MERRY XMAS TO ALL-- the local NWS forecast in in central & eastern VA is way too timid with this storm... They Have 3-6" for RIC- DOUBLE THAT please... ALL the data-- ALL of it... shows RIC east to the Bay in the 0.75 to 1.25" Liquid... NWS is assuming a 12:1 so DO THE MATH... HIGH WINDS... there is GOOD chance -JMHO BLIZZARD warnings might be needed Saturday Night and Sunday he says it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randylee Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREF's look sweet! Wide spread 1" liquid amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 he says it here oh ok, I haven't logged on FB yet today so didn't see it....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT should have maps up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah it is real close, but I agree with CSNAVY that at the coast it could limit accums but a few miles inland is where the big stuff will be. 850 line gets to VA NC boarder on 06z GFS but that is fine for ORF. Let the games begin! True.... Just giving sounding verbatum. The typical east/west all snow line is setting up, which 24 hrs ago didn't seem to be in play. But, we need no more w/nw movement of storm. Just crank that baby up get sub 980 off HSE ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 why hasnt he made a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREF's look sweet! Wide spread 1" liquid amounts. Randy Lee, where do you live? Please put your location in your profile. This goes for everyone.....with the storm approaching, please put in your location so that everyone, including the NWS, can know where you are posting/reporting from. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randylee Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am from Massachusetts not sure why it doesn't display that this morning, I thought it might have been because the site is in the storm mode. I am staying in VA Beach till Weds.I am from New England sent here to guide you through the storm. (ha) Randy Lee, where do you live? Please put your location in your profile. This goes for everyone.....with the storm approaching, please put in your location so that everyone, including the NWS, can know where you are posting/reporting from. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 why hasnt he made a map? It IS Christmas morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z NAM down on numbers for ORF.. 4-8" reasonable. Notable change from 00/06z qpf.. Wig Wag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 spitting flakes in Glen Allen, very small and infrequent but snow on Christmas...worth a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z NAM down on numbers for ORF.. 4-8" reasonable. Notable change from 00/06z qpf.. Wig Wag I never use NAM for QPF. I look at the nam for track and GFS, EURO, SREF's for QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am from Massachusetts not sure why it doesn't display that this morning, I thought it might have been because the site is in the storm mode. I am staying in VA Beach till Weds.I am from New England sent here to guide you through the storm. (ha) From MA originally.. Stow/Maynard.. Welcome to the mid-south. Grew up mentored by Don Kent WBZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z NAM down on numbers for ORF.. 4-8" reasonable. Notable change from 00/06z qpf.. Wig Wag 12z NAM is a lot less than 4-8" for ORF. QPF doesn't even get to .50, that would be 2-4" at best. It's obvious now that there will be no complete consensus with the models on this thing. Good luck to the forecasters, they're going to need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 New nam somewhat heartbreaking. Has 996 off hateras, but cold air swallows us up on this run. Not good indication inside 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I never use NAM for QPF. I look at the nam for track and GFS, EURO, SREF's for QPF What works for oyu. works for you, but numbers down despite preferences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randylee Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I remember Don Kent From MA originally.. Stow/Maynard.. Welcome to the mid-south. Grew up mentored by Don Kent WBZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.