Huffwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I've got some light snow falling--- temp has dropped to 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 :drunk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 :drunk: Think that may be the 18Z clown map by looking at the time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There is a sanat claus! Let's all enjoy it! Merry Christmas all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 radar looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good Luck! Hopefully the higher QPF totals will in fact verify. 6z GFS puts out over 1.00" QPF even for RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 jesus at the 6z QPF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 619 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY THEN INTENSIFYS AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... GENERAL RULE OF THUMB IS THAT IS TAKES A FAIRLY STRONG STORM TO DVLP BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE. APPEARS THIS MAY BE THAT STORM. TODAYS FORECAST REMINDS ME OF WHAT I FELT LIKE BACK IN JAN 2000 AFTER SEEING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. WOW! ALL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE CSTL LOW WEST AS NRN STREAM NRGY PHASES WITH SRN STREAM LOW COMING OUR OF THE GOM. UPSHOT WILL BE A ONGOING AND EVOLVING WINTER STORM FOR THE FA WITH SGNFCNT SNOWFALL AMTS XPCTD STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW ALRDY ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AKQ FA...XCPTN BEING THE XTREME NWRN CNTYS WHERE ONLY ADVSRY AMTS ARE XPCTD ATTM. WENT WITH A SREF/NAM BLEND THIS PACKAGE...APPEARS GFS CONTS TO HAVE SOME DATA PRBLMS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SGNFCNT QPF XPCTD TDY AS UPR LVL NRGY DRIFTS SE ACROSS RGN. WHAT THIS SHUD SERVE TO DO IS SATURATE THE COLUMN AS SVRL HRS OF VIRGA MAY OCCUR. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SRN CNTYS DVLP THIS AFTRN BUT LTL IF ANY ACCUM XPCTD AS TMPS REACH THE M-U30S. PCPN MAY EVEN BEGIN AS PLAIN RAIN ACROSS CNTYS BRDG ALBEMARLE SND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... SYSTM BEGINS TO DVLP TONITE OFF THE SE COAST. PCPN SPREADS S-N TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL AREAS GO OVR TO SNOW AS WET BULB ZERO DROP ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAY NOT GET GOING UNTIL AFTR MIDNITE...BUT ELECTED TO START THE WSW AT 00Z BASED ON QPF`S. AMTS GNRLLY 1-2 INCHES TONITE ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA WITH UP TO 3 INCHES BY 12Z SUN IN SOME AREAS. LOWS RAPID DEEPENING XPCTD ON SUN AS CAA DVLPS. XPCT ALL SNOW ACROSS FA EVEN TO THE COAST. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE NRN OB MIXES WITH RAIN...BUT DATA SPRTS MAINLY SNOW ATTM. PCPN BECOMES PSBLY HVT AT TIMES E OF I95 GIVEN RTHR IMPRESSIVE Q-VECTOR AND FRONTOGENIC FORCING DRNG AFTRN. TMPS HOLDING STEADY ARND 32. QPF WUD SPRT SNOWFALL AMTS BTWN 2-5 INCHES E OF I95 WITH LESSER AMTS ACROSS NWRN ZONES. WENT WITH A 12:1 SNOWFALL RATIO FOR THIS EVENT. LOW MOVES N ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT WRAP ARND MSTR PROGGED TO CONT ACCUMULATION SNOWS ACROSS NERN CNTYS. WSW STATES UP TO 8 INCHES...BUT THE PTNTL FOR OVR 10 INCHES IS THERE ALL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LONG MSTR LINGERS. CUD EVEN SEE ADDNTL BAY EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS TIDEWATER AREA SUN NITE ALL DEPENDING ON EXACT WND DRCTN AND HOW MUCH H7 MSTR LINGERS. LOWS IN THE 20S WITH N-NW WNDS BCMG RTHR GUSTY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRFTG SNOW. SYSTM FINALLY PULLS AWAY FROM RGN MON. ANY LINGERING SNOW ENDS ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS DRNG THE AM. XTG DCRG CLDNS DRNG THE DAY. TMPS HOLDING ARND 32 AGAIN GIVEN A FRESH SNOWPACK AND A GUSTY WND. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 all the local news doing X-mas programming this morning, so no update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ch13 and ch 10 going 1-4" last night at 11. I wanted to scream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Theres going to be some caught of the guard people tomorrow waking up to take back presents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No lie on the 6z GFS QPF! NICE! Water vapor really showing the phase is about to occur anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randylee Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good morning everyone. Merry Christmas. I am visiting VA. Beach this week until Weds. Looks like a good 1/2" foot storm for the Tidewater. Snow all the way up I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ch13 and ch 10 going 1-4" last night at 11. I wanted to scream. I was talking to Evan and its likely he and Jeff are getting called in. WVEC had a band of 2-6. I think it was fair last night with only a couple runs showing our major storm. Now certainly everything needs to be doubled or tripled. Ch10 it just seemed like she wanted to hurry up and get out of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good morning everyone. Merry Christmas. I am visiting VA. Beach this week until Weds. Looks like a good 1/2" foot storm for the Tidewater. Snow all the way up I95. Merry Christmas Be prepared not to do anything for the next 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 flakes here nice xmas am. treat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hey midlo how much does the 6z gfs give here post that goofy snow map if you would bro thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was talking to Evan and its likely he and Jeff are getting called in. WVEC had a band of 2-6. I think it was fair last night with only a couple runs showing our major storm. Now certainly everything needs to be doubled or tripled. Ch10 it just seemed like she wanted to hurry up and get out of there LOL, She did look as if she was ready to grab her car keys and go home. She may have to come back in herself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good morning everyone. Merry Christmas. I am visiting VA. Beach this week until Weds. Looks like a good 1/2" foot storm for the Tidewater. Snow all the way up I95. Watches are along and east of I-95 in the MA and NE so far...hopefully they will be expanded to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's the timing looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was talking to Evan and its likely he and Jeff are getting called in. WVEC had a band of 2-6. I think it was fair last night with only a couple runs showing our major storm. Now certainly everything needs to be doubled or tripled. Ch10 it just seemed like she wanted to hurry up and get out of there Looked like all conservative NWS numbers and not what they get paid to do IMO. CH13 dude used to be on wavy (a talker).. NAM QPF's were higher from 00z run and are higher from 06z a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's the timing looking like? In se va... Accum snow begins around 8pmish. Heaviest stuff is after midnight into lunch time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Watches are along and east of I-95 in the MA and NE so far...hopefully they will be expanded to the west. Welcome to Tidewater..A rare event you have come to witness.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In se va... Accum snow begins around 8pmish. Heaviest stuff is after midnight into lunch time tomorrow. Does kinda look like a band of light stuff that tapers off towards early mornin then picks back up as main coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For fun. I looked at all the qpf #s of the 21 sref members. In the 3z run Several has >2". All but 2 had at least .90" or more. The highest was 2.7"! The low was .26". The average was 1.7"! This is for ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For fun. I looked at all the qpf #s of the 21 sref members. In the 3z run Several has >2". All but 2 had at least .90" or more. The highest was 2.7"! The low was .26". The average was 1.7"! This is for ORF The NAM is .75-1" so 5-10" seems reasonable for ORF with potential for 12"+ should GFS/others verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM is .75-1" so 5-10" seems reasonable for ORF with potential for 12"+ should GFS/others verify. If the GFS were to verify verbatim, you'd be looking at some terrible BL temp problems and a few inches of slush at best along/near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM is .75-1" so 5-10" seems reasonable for ORF with potential for 12"+ should GFS/others verify. Nam had .90" for ORF. If you take sref mean it would be 15-20"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Using 06z NAM I don't see accum snow before 06z Sun. save Suffolk WNW to Ric SE VA gets going quickly after 0300L with 1-2" acum by 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT on Facebook MERRY XMAS TO ALL-- the local NWS forecast in in central & eastern VA is way too timid with this storm... They Have 3-6" for RIC- DOUBLE THAT please... ALL the data-- ALL of it... shows RIC east to the Bay in the 0.75 to 1.25" Liquid... NWS is assuming a 12:1 so DO THE MATH... HIGH WINDS... there is GOOD chance -JMHO BLIZZARD warnings might be needed Saturday Night and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nam had .90" for ORF. If you take sref mean it would be 15-20"! Call me conservative (or stupid), but just can't go with GFS (others) yet as NAM (despite westward trend) is still a bit east. 12z will either keep me where I am or put a snow boot in rear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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