VAB1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 As I get up off the floor and reach my keyboard here I just want to ask - ORF 1"+ QPF on the 12z GFS? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 WOW!!!! IT HAS COME BACK!!!! ORF BURIED!!! Per MIDLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 IF GFS is right Richmond: 4" DCA: 2" VB: 10" Norfolk: 9" 10:1 ratio. lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherFrost Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Dang, I was late. I was gonna say that the GFS finally phased the systems at h36 this run. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 IF GFS is right Richmond: 4" DCA: 2" VB: 10" Norfolk: 9" 10:1 ratio. lol.... Here are the run-total snow accumulations per the 12Z GFS: ORF: 12.3" Suffolk: 11-12" Va Bch: 10" (s) to 12" (n) CPK: 11" AKQ: 7.8" Chester (where I live...DT land 5.5" RIC: 5.3" Short Pump: 4.5" Should be interesting to see what the ECMWF does at 12Z. The roller coaster ride isn't over yet I'm afraid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hey mets could we see this trend even more west of the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Oh man! "Don't call it a comeback...I've been here for years!" The trend was my enemy but it now might become my friend again. Fingers crossed for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hope you don't have to be in the office WxMan1 over the holiday and hopefully enjoy a pleasant surprise. It looks like you picked the wrong time to quit sniffing glue. Love the avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hey mets could we see this trend even more west of the next 24 hours It all depends on the timing of the phasing and ensuing rapid cyclogenesis (as it often does). Would like to get a gander at the 12Z GFS ensembles first to see if the operational run is an outlier. Then the 12Z ECMWF and 15 SREF...while seeing if the 18Z NAM shows a NW trend as well. All-in-all, we should know an awful lot by 4-5 pm in terms of whether this NW trend by the 12Z GFS is "real" or an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 As all stores are closed tomorrow, the news is going to have to act fast as hell to act and tell people about this, SHOULD IT HAPPEN, like the GFS is showing. Please EURO Follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hope you don't have to be in the office WxMan1 over the holiday and hopefully enjoy a pleasant surprise. It looks like you picked the wrong time to quit sniffing glue. Love the avatar. Lol, thanks! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all, first and foremost. I am on one of the day shifts through Sun, so I'm sure I'll see this roller coaster ride continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 As all stores are closed tomorrow, the news is going to have to act fast as hell to act and tell people about this, SHOULD IT HAPPEN, like the GFS is showing. Please EURO Follow! Well, the good news is this is still a primarily Sunday event (i.e. 36-48 hrs). So there's still time. I want to say we didn't begin making wholesale changes to the forecasts prior to the 12/26/2004 event until Christmas Day, or at the earliest very late on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It all depends on the timing of the phasing and ensuing rapid cyclogenesis (as it often does). Would like to get a gander at the 12Z GFS ensembles first to see if the operational run is an outlier. Then the 12Z ECMWF and 15 SREF...while seeing if the 18Z NAM shows a NW trend as well. All-in-all, we should know an awful lot by 4-5 pm in terms of whether this NW trend by the 12Z GFS is "real" or an anomaly. With this run of gfs have to worry about marine layer, right? looks like a warm nose indicated between 850-700?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 JMA Coincidentally, the JMA was the first model to make a big jump west last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 FWIW...12Z GFS MSLP ensemble mean is VERY close to the operational run in terms of the track and timing of the sfc low between 00Z Sun - 00Z Mon. The main difference is the operational run is around 5 mb deeper 12-18Z Sun, and around 10 mb deeper by 00Z Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well, 12z Euro doesn't really support the GFS.....still too far east than we'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What's the euro give ORF QPF wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is insane. One minute its a blizzard, next its flurries, then a blizzard, then a model error! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Checking in after wrapping gifts and boy what an up and down drama with the models. Wonder what the ultimate outcome will be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Whoa....I just checked in to see if we're now showing 60 degrees tomorrow and Sunday and lo and behold.....pretty amazing few days. I'm now going to not act my age and play video games for a few hours and check in later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Why did this run have to fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Oh, should have read a bit more: HPC special statement says the GFS was corrupted by data so its much further west trend is wrong and should be discarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It all depends on the timing of the phasing and ensuing rapid cyclogenesis (as it often does). Would like to get a gander at the 12Z GFS ensembles first to see if the operational run is an outlier. Then the 12Z ECMWF and 15 SREF...while seeing if the 18Z NAM shows a NW trend as well. All-in-all, we should know an awful lot by 4-5 pm in terms of whether this NW trend by the 12Z GFS is "real" or an anomaly. Agree.. IMO a bit extreme, and not consistent enough on successive runs to lean heavily on when compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Model errors,,, whatever. It could just be there covering their a**. Who knows for real. does not negate the fact that models in general have been coming more nw. JMA, NAM, Euro, RGEM. latest Euro held the same with it's last run with about .30" for se va, which coincides with 12z NAM. latest 15z SREF has trended nw and gives se va .50"-.75". So, I feel pretty comfortable now with 2-4" for se va. It could still be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 AKQ bumped up the numbers a *little* bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z NAM has come further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The 00z suite tonight will be very telling. If the GFS shows a similar solution to 12z, I will be intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z NAM has come further west. how far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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