Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread

[Coach McGuirk]

I know it has not happened yet. I noted that in parenthesis.

It'd be pretty funny if I'm the better forecaster over everyone.

[Portsmouth Weather]

Well, the trends look better tonight (at least for SE VA/NE NC). Even the NAM has trended Northwest and now gives far SE VA a quarter inch versus nothing on its previous run. If these subtle changes continue and the trof axis depicted sharpens a little more, we may squeeze out a few inches.

[Martin]

[Martin]

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR THE

WEEKEND. BY TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE

TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PARENT LONGWAVE FEATURE OVER CANADA.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF

COAST...FILLING AT THE SAME TIME...BUT TRIGGERING SURFACE LOW

PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST. THE NET RESULT FOR THE LOCAL AREA

WILL BE THAT THE SKY WILL TURN OUR MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL

KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 20S.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH REACHES THE OHIO

VALLEY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INCREASING LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND

MOISTENING UPPER AIR PROFILES COULD TRIGGER SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW

OR RAIN ACROSS OUR WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES...MAINLY DURING THE

AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION AS SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD

BE ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHEST POPS (~30%) WILL BE OVER NE

NC...SPECIFICALLY BERTIE/NORTHAMPTON/HERTFORD COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPS

WILL REACH THE MID/UPR 30S NORTH...TO ONLY AROUND 40 SOUTH UNDER AN

OVERCAST SKY.

BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO A POSITION OFF

THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH MIN PRESSURE DROPPING TO AROUND

1000MB. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND DEEPEN

ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID

ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE THE

SURFACE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARD

CAPE COD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z EC/GFS HAVE MAINTAINED THIS

TRACK FORM YESTERDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL GOOD THAT THIS WILL

BE LARGELY A NON-EVENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA ASIDE FROM NE NC AND

FAR SE VA. INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS NE NC AND THE TIDEWATER

OF VA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES

UP THE COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND SREF INDICATE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT

SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING BACK INTO THE RICHMOND METRO ON

SUNDAY...SO HAVE CHC POPS BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR...LOWERING TO

SLGHT CHC OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THE ONSET OF THE

PRECIP LATER SATURDAY...BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX

BRIEFLY ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS

EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING

OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM SINCE

THE SNOW OCCURS MAINLY IN THE LATE 4TH PERIOD TO 5TH PERIOD...AND

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL

ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. BEST GUESS SNOW AMOUNTS ATTM WOULD BE FOR A

2-5" SWATH OF SNOW FROM BERTIE COUNTY TO OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK

COUNTY...INCLUDING EDENTON AND ELIZABETH CITY. ADVISORY LEVEL

AMOUNTS 1-3" WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS/TIDEWATER VA

AND OVER TO THE EASTERN SHORE. AGAIN...THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL

PRELIMINARY AND MOST LIKELY A WORST CASE SCENARIO. AMOUNTS DROP

OFF SHARPLY ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED

TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN

VA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY THEN ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HAVE

ENDED. COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN

THE LOW TO MID 30S...FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SUNDAY

NIGHT.

[Martin]

[Suffolkweather]

How did 6z nam and gfs compare to their respective 0z runs? I'm not at my computer now to be able to look myself. Thanks!

[Martin]

How did 6z nam and gfs compare to their respective 0z runs? I'm not at my computer now to be able to look myself. Thanks!

Moisture with NAM is slightly north-west for our area compared to the 0Z run. GFS is slightly east

[EverythingisEverything]

Well looks like Wakefield has gone with basically a non event. I still have video of Dave Parker, Met who use to be on wtkr, for the Dec 26th 2004 come on air and say, well we have to bump up totals alot more with this one! Ah, memories! Merry Christmas to everyone here and their families, going to wrap some more gifts.

[showmethesnow]

How did 6z nam and gfs compare to their respective 0z runs? I'm not at my computer now to be able to look myself. Thanks!

Think I have the right maps posted.

06Z GFS

00Z GFS

06Z NAM

00Z NAM

[Suffolkweather]

Moisture with NAM is slightly north-west for our area compared to the 0Z run. GFS is slightly east

Thanx! What about slp? What are their respective pressures when in the area of HSE?

[retusnmete8]

I will be watching NAM closely today to see if has re-adjusted west a bit or whether it was

a wag and reverts back to drier solution. Still hopefull for 1-2" SE VA. Jeremy Wheeler

looks to be using mostly NAM with a GFS influence for his numbers. A safe call per normal

with TV guys. Merry Christmas to all.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

i pictured myself waking up to winter storm warnings today from earlier in the week oh well atleast we should see flakes in the air and maybe a dusting, who knows maybe we will get the last minute shift west. good luck se va guys

[SeVa]

It really will not take much of a shift to get tidewater (Southside) into some decent snow, and honestly 1-2inches would be fine by me

[FatherFrost]

Over at another forum someone pointed this out...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...06_s_loop.shtml

SREF 6 Hour Precip Loop..

I'm not that great at reading models but if by some rare Christmas miracle this was right...doesn't it show .10-.25 over pretty much all of hampton roads?

Assuming that all of it were to make it to the ground, how much would that be??

[RIC Airport]

i pictured myself waking up to winter storm warnings today from earlier in the week oh well atleast we should see flakes in the air and maybe a dusting, who knows maybe we will get the last minute shift west. good luck se va guys

I pictured seeing blizzard warnings....b/c that's what it would've been RIC-BOS had the Euro stayed its course.

Anyway, we still have the rest of our lives to see such a dream storm....whether it be next year or when we are in our 60s/70s.

[RIC Airport]

Over at another forum someone pointed this out...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...06_s_loop.shtml

SREF 6 Hour Precip Loop..

I'm not that great at reading models but if by some rare Christmas miracle this was right...doesn't it show .10-.25 over pretty much all of hampton roads?

Assuming that all of it were to make it to the ground, how much would that be??

1-3"

[weathervswife]

i pictured myself waking up to winter storm warnings today from earlier in the week oh well atleast we should see flakes in the air and maybe a dusting, who knows maybe we will get the last minute shift west. good luck se va guys

I'll take WWA anyway. NAM has got my hopes up again. There's nothing wrong with accumulating snow on Christmas Day - all day. It looks like the light snow starts about 7 AM Christmas morning.

[eaglesin2011]

Yeah. Looking at the water vapor loop looks like its expanding a bit .. hopefully it will hold together

[JB Fins]

i pictured myself waking up to winter storm warnings today from earlier in the week oh well atleast we should see flakes in the air and maybe a dusting, who knows maybe we will get the last minute shift west. good luck se va guys

X2 on both fronts.

[retusnmete8]

I'll take WWA anyway. NAM has got my hopes up again. There's nothing wrong with accumulating snow on Christmas Day - all day. It looks like the light snow starts about 7 AM Christmas morning.

I see snow in the air, but not much accum as initial surge weakens as energy shifts to deeper S/w digging farther west. This is a Sat night/Sun AM sys for SE VA.

Air dry as well, and we in SE VA will have to consider this with QPF's.

[weathervswife]

Here's video of DT on WTVR if you didn't see it yesterday.

http://www.wtvr.com/videobeta/b2bef8d5-f2a3-4742-8858-5d05312ccd16/News/Mark-Talks-To-Controversial-Forecaster

[Martin]

Here's video of DT on WTVR if you didn't see it yesterday.

http://www.wtvr.com/videobeta/b2bef8d5-f2a3-4742-8858-5d05312ccd16/News/Mark-Talks-To-Controversial-Forecaster

lol "Mark Talks To Controversial Forecaster". AND they interviewed a fan! Gotta love it DT

[retusnmete8]

IRT DT; I admire those that speak what they see using the knowledege they have aquired. To few do this

today. Forecasting is a form of social Media, and with that should be respect and tact.

[Suffolkweather]

12Z NAM wetter. Still no real consolidation of storm off NC coast with NAM. Big timing differences between 12z NAM and 6z GFS. Pretty amazing this close to "event" and still have significant timing differences.

[Suffolkweather]

12z RGEM "much" wetter and further NW over it's 0z run last night and has similar NAM timing..

[crainjd]

12z RGEM "much" wetter and further NW over it's 0z run last night and has similar NAM timing..

can you quantify "much"?

[Inudaw]

*Heads desk*

[Suffolkweather]

can you quantify "much"?

Well, it was relative to what it was showing, which was basically nothing <.05". Now it looks more like NAM moisture fields. So, .20"-.30" for SE VA/NE NC.... Maybe even up to .50" for OBX.

[Inudaw]

..... Please euro/ggem come west like gfs ><

[Suffolkweather]

12z GFS come to papa! Big jump in moisture!! 999MB at sfq 18z sunday. .90" qpf. nice if that verified.