MidlothianWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 78 sub 992 about 200 miles east of orf ...precip offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 And I sat here and wasted all this time at work....all for nothing! Euro showed three BIG snows for C VA so far this season and they all went poof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Unfortunately, it looks as if "conservative" Doug Hill was right yesterday when he said OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If there is any hope right now it's for SE VA and NE NC. That even looks grim unless we see this trend reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 i should dig up that pic i did of the exact same pic with ji and dt's faces on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well by any means its not "done" and "Final." But the euro was not alone in this debacle. IF the storm really does not pan out, its not the only thing that should be blamed. Euro was the most aggressive and held on the longest.. but it "had' decent support from the GGEM early on as well as a few UKMET runs. GGEM dropped the idea of a storm 0z last night. Up till then GGEM was agreeing with the Euro for a storm. UKMET was inconsistent but showed 2 runs that supported the Euro. Its not like the Euro was by itself in making this a powerful storm up the coast. At least its 3 days to go.. and not 24 to 36 hours before the event ( March 2001 ;p ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i should dig up that pic i did of the exact same pic with ji and dt's faces on them I actually thought of that when I was posting! Update on the Times Dispatch website and Dave is taking a bashing in the comments section. I certainly, don't share their opinions, as I think Dave built up enough cache last season to withstand the Euro's drinking problem. Heard there was a small jog west on the NAM but still not enough to instill hope...yet. EDIT: Just read Inudaw's post, I should not throw it all on the Euro as he pointed out GGEM and Ukie were on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was reading the TD too, people are ridiculous. Either way there gonna be bitching. People still don't understand what a 30% chance of rain means. jesus man people are whacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18z GFS looks better, we just need a phase a little earlier. There is still time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18z GFS looks better, we just need a phase a little earlier. There is still time... There is still time, but looking less likely now that SE VA will get much of anything except more cold. Looking for NAM to come around, but from here on increasingly more doubtful. of anything more than 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I actually thought of that when I was posting! Update on the Times Dispatch website and Dave is taking a bashing in the comments section. I certainly, don't share their opinions, as I think Dave built up enough cache last season to withstand the Euro's drinking problem. Heard there was a small jog west on the NAM but still not enough to instill hope...yet. EDIT: Just read Inudaw's post, I should not throw it all on the Euro as he pointed out GGEM and Ukie were on board. You should see the beating he is taking on his wxrisk.com FB page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You should see the beating he is taking on his wxrisk.com FB page I've thought he's done a pretty good job on here of trying to figure out and explain where his thinking was wrong. Of course, most of us willing to listen to him and engage unlike most folks on Facebook who just want to be dicks... The legend of DT would almost certainly have never written the phrase "clearly I was wrong" but unless his account was hacked, I saw him say that a few times today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 0Z GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_060l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 .50 QPF line right over Va. Beach - all snow. That's gotta be good for 3-4" at least. I have no expectations of this actually verifying but I'll be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Traveling to hampton see family sunday. Would be crazy if we see another 12/26/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There is still time, but looking less likely now that SE VA will get much of anything except more cold. Looking for NAM to come around, but from here on increasingly more doubtful. of anything more than 1". Like I said, there is still time. GFS looks significantly better tonight. Now lets see if the other models follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Again....an extremly disappointing situation. This was the ATL-BOS dream storm that everybody wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 :-p If anyone cashes in... it will be those along the immediate coastal sections from the Carolina's to Eastern New England...coastal areas.. Unless we get surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Let's be real nobody knows for sure what will happen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Let's be real nobody knows for sure what will happen yet. Agreed. About the only thing we do know is that it's a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't think I was this upset over a east coast snowstorm since March 2001. PDII was close behind I guess for C VA, but at least we did see somthing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 0Z Euro trended nw some and helped SE VA. brings .25" to suffolk area and .50" to ecg. very tight gradient still w/only .02" for RIC. models in general showing small trend nw, except nam so far. UK came nw some as well at 0z. I'm willing to bet nam will look similar to new Euro by 12z run. No matter what, looks to be a tight gradient and anything could happen. Feels like 2004 from a forecasting standpoint....models showed storm 7 days out then completely lost it until 48 hours before storm hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 December 2-3. 2000 was pretty bad....AKQ even issued a watch for us. But, this trumps everything in my life time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Why is everyone upset? The models suck until you get around 3 days out. Even then 12/26/2004 happens. Don't give up hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Why is everyone upset? The models suck until you get around 3 days out. Even then 12/26/2004 happens. Don't give up hope. Exactly... Geez! There is still reason for optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No this by far does not trump some busts. For one we did not get with in 72 hours of the event. To me the models looked great but not close enough to start issuing accumulation guesses. Yea it was in range to hint at a "big" storm could be in the works... but exact accumulations should not of been the focal point. I did not pay too much attention to local news stations.. but they were beginning to spread the word of the potential "dream" storm idea for the area. Some even mentioned accumulation possibilities. This was all a bit premature sure... and was a let down for models to drop the idea of a "Dream" storm. But it did so just outside of the 72 hour time frame. So the bust is not Huge in the "timing" regard. We've had bust occur with in 24 hours of the even both in the negative (march 2001?: P) and positive way (Jan 2000). Those are probably the two "biggest" bust I remember. All happened with in 24 to 48 hours of the event. For this to switch just beyond the 72 hours limit was frustrating.. but not as frustrating as it can get as in the two previous examples. The biggest disappointment though is that this just came after another storm that did not pan out just last week. This one had much more potential.. (and has a VERY long shot of producing something..) than the previous threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 No this by far does not trump some busts. For one we did not get with in 72 hours of the event. To me the models looked great but not close enough to start issuing accumulation guesses. Yea it was in range to hint at a "big" storm could be in the works... but exact accumulations should not of been the focal point. I did not pay too much attention to local news stations.. but they were beginning to spread the word of the potential "dream" storm idea for the area. Some even mentioned accumulation possibilities. This was all a bit premature sure... and was a let down for models to drop the idea of a "Dream" storm. But it did so just outside of the 72 hour time frame. So the bust is not Huge in the "timing" regard. We've had bust occur with in 24 hours of the even both in the negative (march 2001?: P) and positive way (Jan 2000). Those are probably the two "biggest" bust I remember. All happened with in 24 to 48 hours of the event. For this to switch just beyond the 72 hours limit was frustrating.. but not as frustrating as it can get as in the two previous examples. The biggest disappointment though is that this just came after another storm that did not pan out just last week. This one had much more potential.. (and has a VERY long shot of producing something..) than the previous threat. This has not happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This has not happened yet. I know it has not happened yet. I noted that in parenthesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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