MidlothianWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Don't despair, Jake.There's still time for a west trend. Afterall, the GFS ensembles look to be west. Even with this crappy of a solution, we still get 2-3". Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Even with this crappy of a solution, we still get 2-3". Lock it in. I just wish it would go back to the earlier timing if thats all thats gonna fall. Would kinda suck to have it happen the day after christmas, and then bomb up the coast and miss us as well. I guess we got time to shift this back some more and thats good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Even with this crappy of a solution, we still get 2-3". Lock it in. the cut off is tight 50 miles will make a HUGE difference. this run in the later hrs.66+ just tok off with the low still plenty of time. we couldn't expect the euro to show an extreme solution every run eastern va nc jackpot this run for the mid atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the cut off is tight 50 miles will make a HUGE difference. this run in the later hrs.66+ just tok off with the low still plenty of time. we couldn't expect the euro to show an extreme solution every run eastern va nc jackpot this run for the mid atl. We shall wait then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The last bet I made was for a bottle of vodka. I don't think the loser has actually made due on that bet. Anyway, if I'm doing another bet I need a specific location to bet on.... not just some random place in VA. PM me with your address and desired type of liquor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the cut off is tight 50 miles will make a HUGE difference. this run in the later hrs.66+ just tok off with the low still plenty of time. we couldn't expect the euro to show an extreme solution every run eastern va nc jackpot this run for the mid atl. I think with the GFS,GFS ENS, and now the euro that Hampton roads gets a very nice snowfall out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Many of the GFS ensemble members look like hits or close to it 72 hr http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf072.html 84 hr http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf084.html Like midlo said earlier, the difference for inland areas is literally 50-75 miles. At this range thats a doable shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Most of the gfs ensembles are about 6 hours slower than the operational as well. Agrees with an east of I-95 high impact storm.. with those west of I-95 (richmond view point) only getting a modest event. Euro moving 75 miles east and speeding up really killed the mood tonight for alot of people. (going from 2" in ric down to .25 at best sucks ;p) But the euro was the most bullish to begin with...would like to see euro ensembles. GGEM was very bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6z GFS is good for Va beach and Hampton road area. Throws light accumulation snows back to Richmond.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I would like to see NAM come around a bit today with a quicker deepening and closer to GFS solution for me to by this. Watching euro trend today and thinking it is a tick east of previous tracks. Seen many of these slip east and moisture west pf track fizzle with dry cold air moviung south at storms onset. A couple inches seems good, but not hard on GFS QPF's just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This thing needs to stop moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A FEW NOTABLE CHANGES W/ THE UPCOMING SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND: THE LATEST 00Z/23 ECMWF RUN...WHILE STILL THE STRONGEST/MOST AMPLIFIED AND SLOWEST SOLN OF ALL OPERATIONAL MODEL GDNC...HAS TRENDED FASTER AND NOW THE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BTWN IT AND THE GFS/GGEM/UKMET AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT AS SUBSTANTIAL AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IN OTHER WORDS...THE EXTREMELY SLOW SOLN DEPICTED BY YSDY`S 12Z ECMWF RUN (I.E. A 973 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE VA ERN SHORE AT 12Z MON)...HAS NOW SPED UP BY > 12 HRS WITH A TRACK A BIT FARTHER OFF THE COAST (LATEST ECMWF SFC LOW DEPICTION WHEN IT REACHES A POSN OFF THE ERN SHORE COAST IS ~ 980 MB AT 00Z/MON...AND BY 12Z MON IS NEAR CAPE COD). NOW WITH THAT SAID...THE ECMWF IS STILL DEPICTING JUST AS STRONG OF A CSTL SYSTEM AS BEFORE...DEEPENING THAT LOW TO 962 MB WHEN IT REACHES NEAR CAPE COD AT 12Z MON...BUT THE "BOMBING PHASE" (DEEPENING RATE OF 1MB/HR) DOES NOT GET GOING AS EARLY AS THE PREV RUNS HAD SHOWN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GEM GNLY DEPICT ABOUT A 990 MB SFC LOW...ABOUT 100 MILES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND 12 HR FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. LATEST FCST WILL BLEND THESE SOLNS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST 03/23 SREF. THE EXTREME ECMWF SOLN FROM YSDY IS NOW A MAJOR OUTLIER...AND ECMWF MODEL TENDS TO VERIFY BEST IN THE 3-7 DAY TIMEFRAME...WHICH AFTER ANOTHER RUN WE WILL BE OUT OF. CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT WITH THIS PACKAGE...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA E OF I-95...WITH STRONGEST 850-300MB Q-VECTOR CONV FORCING AND 700-850MB FRONTOGENESIS LOOKING TO OCCUR FROM ABOUT 06Z SUN THROUGH 18Z SUN (THROUGH 00Z MON ERN SHORE/NRN NECK). FOR THE PIEDMNT ZONES NW OF I-85 AND TO THE W OF I-95...FORCING IS WEAKER AND DEEP MSTR IS NOT PRESENT FOR VERY LONG (IF AT ALL). THESE AREAS...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT 50% LATE SAT AFTN/SAT NGT/SUN. RICHMOND FALLS RIGHT IN THIS POP TRANSITION AREA...LIKELY TO THE S AND E...CHC TO THE N AND W...AND THIS MAY BE THE MOST CHALLENGING AREA FOR FUTURE SHIFTS IN DETERMINING SNOW AND PRECIP AMTS...AS THERE IS SOME SUPPORT (FROM THE SREF AND NAM) FOR VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) SNOW. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR TO ERLY TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW ACCUMS...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT/HEAVY SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM THE ERN SHORE SW THROUGH THE NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE VA. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP TYPE...MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT A MIX TO RAIN FOR MUCH OF NE NC/HAMPTON ROADS SAT NGT THROUGH MID MRNG SUN...BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE NLY AND COLDER AIR BRINGS ALL SNOW TO THE ENTIRE COAST. QUESTION WILL BE...IS THE DEEPENING FAST ENOUGH AND SFC TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH FOR HVY ACCUMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AS ITS STILL FAR TOO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES. Interesting note about the Euro. I am rather worried if they are thinking mixing for Hampton Roads through mid Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 with the east trend i dont think mixing will be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I read talk that there were some problems with the overnight runs...initialization issues or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't know if there were initialization issues but the Euro blinked. I am not jumping off the wagon yet but certainly disappointed since we are leaving its wheelhouse window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, I guess. Still looks decent for Chesapeake. I mean, I was never on the "15 inches" train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, I think SE VA is in the bullseye right now so if you are in Chesapeake, definitely time to start getting hyped up. If you can, update your profile with your location so it will show in your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't think it's time to get hyped at all yet...We went from epic storm to a fizzling little guy. If 12z Euro does another flip then yeah might be time for some enthusiasm. I am entirely prepared to see 12in just as I am prepared to see nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's because it looks like we're losing a HUGE storm. But if the models had shown 3-6" all along, we'd be a great mood. 6" is awesome. Although that's NOT what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z GFS = next. These models have been horrendous this winter. I can't ever remember seeing them worse, Euro included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Cancel Storm! Extreme SE VA and NE NC may see an inch or two. Then again, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This storm might very well end up like Dec. 26, 2004. Hampton Roads gets crushed, and Richmond sees hardly a flake. I hope we can all get in on the action but it seems that this storm can really only move east from here on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This storm might very well end up like Dec. 26, 2004. Hampton Roads gets crushed, and Richmond sees hardly a flake. I hope we can all get in on the action but it seems that this storm can really only move east from here on out Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 And it will occur on the 26th. An anniversary snow? Please don't make euro shift east anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm extremly disappointed. Problem is, the Euro showed a monster storm, a full blown BECS for several consecutive runs and it appears, just like last weekend, the storm may just fizzle out/slide east OTS. Of course the 12z EURO has yet to come out, but I'm not sure if it would revert to showing anything near what it depicted just a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes, Virginia, there is NO Santa Claus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm extremly disappointed. Problem is, the Euro showed a monster storm, a full blown BECS for several consecutive runs and it appears, just like last weekend, the storm may just fizzle out/slide east OTS. Of course the 12z EURO has yet to come out, but I'm not sure if it would revert to showing anything near what it depicted just a couple days ago. Euro showed OTS solution for many runs last week, then threw us a nice bone and then took the storm back out to sea. So if we just apply similar logic here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro showed OTS solution for many runs last week, then threw us a nice bone and then took the storm back out to sea. So if we just apply similar logic here... Ok, so IOW.....it should take the storm BACK to the coast and as a beast? Anyway, I had already began my storm archive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am not a meteorologist. The storm could end up being a whole bunch of things. I just think it is really hard to ignore a model that has been so consistent. If this 12z run is similar to its other solutions then I would feel more confident in a Euro/GFS compromised solution that still puts us in a good situation to see snow. We might not be looking at 2feet per the previous Euro runs, but we could see several inches. Hopefully a met can hop in this thread and substantiate my claim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 IF the latest models are right.. the Euro deserves the... award. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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