Huffwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 looking better for our first flakes sunday, wait and see with storm #2 Exactly--I'm not going either way on it. The margin of error is huge 7 days out. Dec 19th didn't pop up until 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 GGEM is SE VA Special! Hope the Euro follows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It's gonna take a whole lot of things to come together properly for SE Va to get snow this early in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 It's gonna take a whole lot of things to come together properly for SE Va to get snow this early in the season glad you made it, and yea the ocean temps are a bitc* down there this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 here we go ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRACK OF CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WV THROUGH NRN VA. THIS TRACK WOULD LIMIT THE POSSIBILITIES OF PCPN TO MAINLY MD AND EXTREME NRN VA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DROPS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE INTO NRN NC...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE POSSIBILITIES FOR SNOW FURTHER SOUTH INTO SRN VA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AT THIS POINT...DID ADD SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NEED TO STRESS THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE AMOUNT OF QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY AT THIS TIME. ONCE THIS CLIPPER WAVE EXITS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING IT WILL BEGIN TO BOMB OUT AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH THIS COLD AIR...EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 12z GFS: Surface soundings are a little iffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Clippers are normally not the way to get snow down in Virginia. Ignoring boundary layer issues for now... typically clippers tend to verify further north then what models indicate and also have very little moisture to the south of them. With the track uncertainty of the system this weekend.. it will be hard to pin down if we will even get moisture right now. This does not even bring up the question of precipitation type. This will also be depend on track as well. We have a shot at our first flakes... but I would not bet on any thing significant for this region at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'll take the flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 <br />Looks like I lucked out with my vacation!<br /><br />Received my first snow of the season here in Waukesha today. Plus, the NWS is calling for 4-7" on Saturday! <img src="http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/Snowman.gif" /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Midlo, are you going to Marquette U? Love that area. My wife's family is from the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'll take the flakes! Looks real nice! If it snows on Dec. 5th, I will be very pleased! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like I lucked out with my vacation! Received my first snow of the season here in Waukesha today. Plus, the NWS is calling for 4-7" on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Midlo, are you going to Marquette U? Love that area. My wife's family is from the UP. Unfortunately no - most of my family went there but I can't afford it out of state. I still love coming up here though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Given my luck, this thing will give me flurries up here in Milwaukee. Then it will proceed to slam Midlothian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 soundings look good at hr.78 for ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Keep it coming! If 00z GFS looks good I think we might actually get some snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Keep it coming! If 00z GFS looks good I think we might actually get some snow out of this. Looks good. but I wouldn't get too confident right now though... were still a few days out with plenty of time for the dreaded northward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks good. but I wouldn't get too confident right now though... were still a few days out with plenty of time for the dreaded northward shift. I agree especially since it's early DEC! lol But I am not really expecting this to trend north much at all with such a strong pattern in place. What are your overall thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Always good to be conservative with clippers projected to come this far south... Lean on the dry side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 We can dream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 We can dream.... Oh god, we're busting out snow totals 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Oh god, we're busting out snow totals 3-4 days out. Hey have a sense of humor....plus it has a funnny shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Hey have a sense of humor....plus looks at its shape I would love for that to happen. But, it never does. Even when it's less than 24 hours out. Those snowfall totals never become close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 At least the area can finally get some good cold. Plus, it continues to appear that the pattern will offer chances. If Sunday fails to deliver the first flakes, the 00z ECMWF does have a low near LA at hour 240. Perhaps, just perhaps, that one is for real. Although they are rare, large snowstorms can happen in mid December. Remember that RIC received 10.4" from a storm December 12-14, 1917. And December 11, 1958 was also a huge snowstorm for VA with SE VA winning (11.4" at ORF). It was a very quick/cold storm as RIC got 6.7" for the event with a high of only 22°F. RDU was also hit really hard while DCA and north got spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I agree especially since it's early DEC! lol But I am not really expecting this to trend north much at all with such a strong pattern in place. What are your overall thoughts? A little early... not quite sure yet. I just can't seem to shake off the notion that it could easily trend north, giving DC the fun and letting the Apps swallow up most of our moisture. Hopefully we can keep things where they are... Norfolk's snow record for Dec 5 is only 0.2" (1906). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...ASALL MODELS ADVERTISE A CLIPPER-TYPE OF SYSTEM TRACKING ESE FROM KY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF/NAM SOLNS. MODEL LOW LVL THICKNESS VALUES...AND SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...SUGGESTING A MAINLY SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA (WITH SOME -RA MIXED IN INITIALLY). QPF AMTS STILL APPEAR RATHER LIGHT (GNLY .10-.20" OR LESS)...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THIS IS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. STILL...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN TIMING FOR PRECIP WOULD BE OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS A QUICK 1-2" OF SNOW WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT TRACK WOULD FAVOR SOUTHERN VA/INTERIOR NE NC FOR BEST CHC OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT WITH THIS STILL 3 DAYS OUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND SOME CHANGES ARE LIKELY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 40% OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA...WITH LOWEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE ERN SHORE (20% OR LESS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 A little early... not quite sure yet. I just can't seem to shake off the notion that it could easily trend north, giving DC the fun and letting the Apps swallow up most of our moisture. Hopefully we can keep things where they are... Norfolk's snow record for Dec 5 is only 0.2" (1906). There have been a couple decent snows for ORF in December...speaking of which "This Day in Local Weather History: December 02 1896 Winter Storm: 8.0" snow Norfolk" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 New NAM says we are way to far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 perfect spot to be in to north at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 JC has a snow hope of 3. Now we are cursed. A vigorous upper level system will ride across the region Saturday night and Sunday morning as cold polar air filters unhindered from Canada into the region. This upper level jetsream energy will be strong enough to bring some snow flurries or snow showers in the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. At the same time this vortex will will spawn a surface low pressure system just southeast of Cape Hatteras late Saturday night which will then quickly move off the coast early Sunday morning. If this system is close enough it could briefly brush the area with accumulating snows. The exact track of the surface low is in question so stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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