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Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread

Midlo Snow Maker

By Midlo Snow Maker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Midlo Snow Maker

Midlo Snow Maker

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here we go

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRACK OF CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS WV THROUGH NRN VA. THIS TRACK WOULD LIMIT THE
POSSIBILITIES OF PCPN TO MAINLY MD AND EXTREME NRN VA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND DROPS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE INTO NRN
NC...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE POSSIBILITIES FOR SNOW FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SRN VA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AT THIS POINT...DID
ADD SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NEED TO STRESS THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE AMOUNT OF QPF WILL
BE VERY LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THIS CLIPPER WAVE EXITS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING IT WILL
BEGIN TO BOMB OUT AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY. BUT WITH THIS
COLD AIR...EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

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Inudaw

Inudaw

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Clippers are normally not the way to get snow down in Virginia. Ignoring boundary layer issues for now... typically clippers tend to verify further north then what models indicate and also have very little moisture to the south of them. With the track uncertainty of the system this weekend.. it will be hard to pin down if we will even get moisture right now. This does not even bring up the question of precipitation type. This will also be depend on track as well.

We have a shot at our first flakes... but I would not bet on any thing significant for this region at this time.

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Kevin Druff

Kevin Druff

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<br />Looks like I lucked out with my vacation!<br /><br />Received my first snow of the season here in Waukesha today. Plus, the NWS is calling for 4-7" on Saturday! <img src="http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/Snowman.gif" /><br /><br /><br />post-250-0-40572000-1291247565.jpg<br />
<br /><br /><br />

Midlo, are you going to Marquette U? Love that area. My wife's family is from the UP.

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WeSuck

WeSuck

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Looks good. :thumbsup:

but I wouldn't get too confident right now though... were still a few days out with plenty of time for the dreaded northward shift.

I agree especially since it's early DEC! lol But I am not really expecting this to trend north much at all with such a strong pattern in place. What are your overall thoughts?

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RIC Airport

RIC Airport

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At least the area can finally get some good cold. Plus, it continues to appear that the pattern will offer chances. If Sunday fails to deliver the first flakes, the 00z ECMWF does have a low near LA at hour 240. Perhaps, just perhaps, that one is for real. Although they are rare, large snowstorms can happen in mid December. Remember that RIC received 10.4" from a storm December 12-14, 1917. And December 11, 1958 was also a huge snowstorm for VA with SE VA winning (11.4" at ORF). It was a very quick/cold storm as RIC got 6.7" for the event with a high of only 22°F. RDU was also hit really hard while DCA and north got spared.

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Billabong

Billabong

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I agree especially since it's early DEC! lol But I am not really expecting this to trend north much at all with such a strong pattern in place. What are your overall thoughts?

A little early... not quite sure yet. I just can't seem to shake off the notion that it could easily trend north, giving DC the fun and letting the Apps swallow up most of our moisture. Hopefully we can keep things where they are... Norfolk's snow record for Dec 5 is only 0.2" (1906).

:snowman:

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Midlo Snow Maker

Midlo Snow Maker

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THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...AS

ALL MODELS ADVERTISE A CLIPPER-TYPE OF SYSTEM TRACKING ESE FROM KY

THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY

STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF/NAM SOLNS. MODEL LOW LVL THICKNESS VALUES...AND

SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...SUGGESTING A MAINLY SNOW EVENT

FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA (WITH SOME -RA MIXED IN INITIALLY).

QPF AMTS STILL APPEAR RATHER LIGHT (GNLY .10-.20" OR LESS)...WHICH

MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THIS IS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. STILL...GIVEN

THAT THE MAIN TIMING FOR PRECIP WOULD BE OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL NEED

TO BE MONITORED AS A QUICK 1-2" OF SNOW WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

CURRENT TRACK WOULD FAVOR SOUTHERN VA/INTERIOR NE NC FOR BEST CHC

OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT WITH THIS STILL 3 DAYS OUT THERE IS A

LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND SOME CHANGES ARE LIKELY. HAVE BUMPED POPS

UP TO 40% OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA...WITH LOWEST CHANCES

LOOKING TO BE OVER THE ERN SHORE (20% OR LESS

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Martin

Martin

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A little early... not quite sure yet. I just can't seem to shake off the notion that it could easily trend north, giving DC the fun and letting the Apps swallow up most of our moisture. Hopefully we can keep things where they are... Norfolk's snow record for Dec 5 is only 0.2" (1906).

:snowman:

There have been a couple decent snows for ORF in December...speaking of which

"This Day in Local Weather History:

December 02

1896 Winter Storm: 8.0" snow Norfolk"

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Martin

Martin

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JC has a snow hope of 3. axesmiley.png Now we are cursed.

A vigorous upper level system will ride across the region Saturday night and Sunday morning as cold polar air filters unhindered from Canada into the region. This upper level jetsream energy will be strong enough to bring some snow flurries or snow showers in the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. At the same time this vortex will will spawn a surface low pressure system just southeast of Cape Hatteras late Saturday night which will then quickly move off the coast early Sunday morning. If this system is close enough it could briefly brush the area with accumulating snows. The exact track of the surface low is in question so stay tuned!
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