WeSuck Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Per the 12z thread AT LEAST 1.25" of ORF QPF is SN. No way half is rain. Look at hour 120! just amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I dont see how RIC could handle 2' of snow. City would be a disaster. Somewhat fortunately, this looks to track just off the coast burying Cent. & Eastern VA much more so than Western VA. I can assure you that if it looks like this will verify, come Sunday there will be a lot of ferrying of assets by VDOT from the western half of the state to the eastern. To give you some idea: in January 1996 we received 3 feet plus in Augusta County. At the time, I lived on a cul de sac so, granted, I was the last to see a plow. I didn't see a plow for almost a week. If 2 feet falls in Richmond, this city WILL shut down for a week. Henrico county will be shut down for 3 or 4 days, minimum. I want the snow as much as the next guy, but budget-wise, this is going to put a tremendous strain on resources here in Central Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If we take the Euro as the far west solution and the GFS as the east solution, the mean solution looks to put us in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I agree! Its very possible it may end up on the coast as the EURO depicts, but i would bet if anything it ends up east. That would potentially solve or minimize any mixing issues If we take the Euro as the far west solution and the GFS as the east solution, the mean solution looks to put us in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757Snow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The mixing issues on the Euro... do they just affect coastal areas like ORF and VA Beach .. or are the more inland parts of Hampton Roads (Chesapeake, Suffolk, etc.) affected too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If the 850 0 line approaches norfolk as stated in the other threads, it would potentially affect everyone southeast of a accomack to newport news suffolk line IMO. The mixing issues on the Euro... do they just affect coastal areas like ORF and VA Beach .. or are the more inland parts of Hampton Roads (Chesapeake, Suffolk, etc.) affected too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think it is safe to say that we will see accumulating snow upwards of an inch at this point. For those of us in HR, especially the southside, temperatures are going to play a HUGE role here. If I were a betting man, I'd say williamsburg ends up the big winner here, close enough for high qpf yet far enough away to sustain snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 3.29" QPF ORF!!! AND LOOK AT HOUR 120! OMFG!!! Low right off VA BEACH and 850 0 line is wayyyy out to sea. With high ratios i dont even want to guess what would happen. WOW WOW WOW if we get 3+ of liquid the low is too close. not good at all. we need a se trend now. any further west and it will be 1993 here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757Snow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well.. it's way too early to be nitpicking and taking models verbatim.. the bottomline is the potential exists for anywhere from 1-3 inches to 20-30 inches of snow to fall in the major Hampton Roads cities.. this is a very big deal, especially given the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 The mixing issues on the Euro... do they just affect coastal areas like ORF and VA Beach .. or are the more inland parts of Hampton Roads (Chesapeake, Suffolk, etc.) affected too? yes hampton roads has issues,real close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 if we get 3+ of liquid the low is too close. not good at all. we need a se trend now. any further west and it will be 1993 here again. I'm thinking it will end up somewhere in between the EURO and GFS. That would be around 75-100 miles off the coast. THE SWEET SPOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfletch Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I wonder how QPF is progged for EZF and up here in North-Central VA-probably buried as well I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfletch Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 seems that EZF and surrounding areas do well in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A blend of EURO and GFS is ideal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A blend of EURO and GFS is ideal here. I think a 70/30 blend of Euro/GFS would get everyone in the game and still produce the big numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think it is safe to say that we will see accumulating snow upwards of an inch at this point. For those of us in HR, especially the southside, temperatures are going to play a HUGE role here. If I were a betting man, I'd say williamsburg ends up the big winner here, close enough for high qpf yet far enough away to sustain snow upwards of an inch? talk about a kick in the rear end when raleigh is getting ripped with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 upwards of an inch? talk about a kick in the rear end when raleigh is getting ripped with snow. please stop posting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 well i guess i wil leave the thread title the same no changes really from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well i guess i wil leave the thread title the same no changes really from yesterday I still like yesterday's vid reaction to the Euro.. if anythings its about the same today.. :X XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I still like yesterday's vid reaction to the Euro.. if anythings its about the same today.. :X XD LOLOLOL POST OF THE DECADE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Ah, new winter, new forum, same sad "woe is me" posts from the Virginia Beach area. This has, and will be, fun to track. Think of all the years without a Santa Claus, er, a storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I still like yesterday's vid reaction to the Euro.. if anythings its about the same today.. :X XD OMG, that brings back memories. I'm a huge soccer fan and, while I'm not in that video, I was certainly emulating it within the confines of my own house. My steel front door probably even has a few dents in it from me banging on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 As Tina Fey would say - what the what? Here's an interesting project. Can anybody find an example where anything close to this has happened this far south on the east coast. The blizzard of '80 might be but I don't even think that storm could hang with what the Euro is showing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 As Tina Fey would say - what the what? Here's an interesting project. Can anybody find an example where anything close to this has happened this far south on the east coast. The blizzard of '80 might be but I don't even think that storm could hang with what the Euro is showing here. Yeah, I am not sure. WxJunkie is the central and southeastern VA weather historian but the only thing I can compare to in size is 1996, that was a slow mover. I think most mets locked in on that forecast earlier as I can only guess there was model agreement but I think the Euro called it first. That being stated, if the Euro verfies verbatim, this will go down as historic. I was 9 in 80 so I should remember it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We all know the Euro is showing a "near" Unprecedented event. So coming up with an analog that has a low that hangs out where it does.. will be hard to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How does 1798 sound? 40 + inches in Norfolk recorded from documents back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 As Tina Fey would say - what the what? Here's an interesting project. Can anybody find an example where anything close to this has happened this far south on the east coast. The blizzard of '80 might be but I don't even think that storm could hang with what the Euro is showing here. that was all snow here. i dont think 1980 can ever be topped here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro ops is no longer a borderline outlier at 12z. The ensemble mean would be pretty destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxEGG Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well i guess i wil leave the thread title the same no changes really from yesterday have to admit, this has become exciting, not only learning more about models, etc but to have a monster headed into town - groceries bought and bar stocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Ray Morton Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Is the euro ensemble mean west or east of op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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