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Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread

Midlo Snow Maker

By Midlo Snow Maker,
in Mid Atlantic

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SEVAsNOwSTORM

SEVAsNOwSTORM

Posted
Posted

If this EURO run actually happened, this would be a very dangerous situation for the area. We wouldn't be able to handle the amount of snowfall and a lot of people would be in the dark for many nights. VERY SCARY! Personally if the other models start to agree and the EURO holds on to a similar event, I'm hitting the store early.

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MidlothianWX

MidlothianWX

Posted
Posted

The only storm analog I can think of for this is February 1899. ORF along with RIC and all of the major NE cities got at least 12" out of that. It was a heck of a storm in the southeast states as well.....CLT, CAE, RDU, etc.

Anthony.

I don't even know what to say right now.

Over 2 feet in RIC if you take this run verbatim.

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WhiteoutWX

WhiteoutWX

Posted
Posted

The only storm analog I can think of for this is February 1899. ORF along with RIC and all of the major NE cities got at least 12" out of that. It was a heck of a storm in the southeast states as well.....CLT, CAE, RDU, etc.

Lol when you have to go back to the 1800s for analogs you know its a big storm. Lots of the all-time winter records come from way back then.

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MidlothianWX

MidlothianWX

Posted
Posted

Please save all of these for the record books.

Basically 15-25" for many locations with the hot spot over SE VA where they near 30 inches. :arrowhead:

I can't quite call this a 3-stream phaser in that sense but this thing is damn close to being a triple phaser on this run. There is definitely 3 s/w phasing in with an amazing surface cyclone. I'm not sure yet if this is a triple phaser. The pocket of Arctic air at h85 is -12c at its coolest. This may be a hybrid triple phaser. :)

In portions of NC and E VA, the ECMWF puts down 1.0-1.25" QPF in 6 hours. Does that constitute +SN? :guitar:

Yeah, this is close to a triple phaser. The Arctic air's raw temperatures are warmer than some of the beasts of the past. But damn is this one close.

This is resembling those storms on the ECMWF, particularly 1993 with how the ridge was so strong out West and 3 s/w got together. But, in this case, the parameters are all slightly weaker than 1993 at this range. That may be better for a lot of people along the East Coast in terms of snowfall and blizzard conditions anyway.

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RIC Airport

RIC Airport

Posted
Posted

Has that ever happend here? I cant ever remember it in my lifetime

Not in my lifetime, of course LWX issued a couple last winter for portions of their CWA. I do remember, all of western VA had blizzard warnings for the March 1993 superstorm.

Looking back at hourly observations, it would appear January 1966 and February 1979 probably would've warranted blizzard warnings for C VA.

And of course March 1980 was very close for ORF. Winds gusted to 51mph at Norfolk during the evening on March 2, 1980....+SN BLSN. WAVY news 10 posted some old news reports and you could see the really high snow drifts in some of their live shots.....hard to believe that was ORF.

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Coach McGuirk

Coach McGuirk

Posted
Posted

Not in my lifetime, of course LWX issued a couple last winter for portions of their CWA. I do remember, all of western VA had blizzard warnings for the March 1993 superstorm.

Looking back at hourly observations, it would appear January 1966 and February 1979 probably would've warranted blizzard warnings for C VA.

And of course March 1980 was very close for ORF. Winds gusted to 51mph at Norfolk during the evening on March 2, 1980....+SN BLSN. WAVY news 10 posted some old news reports and you could see the really high snow drifts in some of their live shots.....hard to believe that was ORF.

Don't get your hopes up.

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Martin

Martin

Posted
Posted

LOL

It's just a model run.

Don't get your hopes up.

Coach I think we all know after living in this area that anything can bust. I think its ok to get excited over arguably one of the best model run events in years. :snowman: If it busts it busts. We can still get pumped for a potential storm. :bike:

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Inudaw

Inudaw

Posted
Posted

Hmmm.... *mixed reactions to the 0z model runs* Would of liked the Euro ensembles too support the operational run a bit more.

Good Euro operational consistency still.

*Scratches head* I'm not as confident as I was yesterday. :arrowhead::arrowhead: Not leaning one way or the other though as far as storm verses snow storm.

Euro was spectacular....

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Martin

Martin

Posted
Posted
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF MODELS...GFS/ECMWF HAVE STAYED SIMILAR TO

THEIR PREV RUNS...THE GGEM HAS BECOME MORE LIKE THE FLATTER/WEAKER/MORE

SUPPRESSED GFS...WHILE THE UKMET REMAINS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF (SEE

LATEST PREEPD FROM HPC FOR DETAILS). ONE CHANGE IS THAT EVEN THE

WEAKER SOLN OF THE GFS/GGEM ARE SLOWER IN THE TRACK...AND HAVE

SCALED BACK A BIT FURTHER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR SAT...PARTICULARLY

DURING THE MRNG AND OVER THE ERN SHORE. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL

SAT/CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DUE TO MAIN FORCING

REMAINING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEAK SFC HIGH

PRESSURE STILL NOSING DOWN FROM THE UPR MIDWEST. OTHER THAN THE

SLOWER TIMING...DID NOT CHANGE THINKING FROM PREV FCST VERY MUCH.

THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH THE

AMPLIFYING UPR PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (ECMWF MORE

AGGRESSIVE)...AS WELL AS WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING LOW. THE

ECMWF FILLS IN/WEAKENS THIS LATTER FEATURE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE

GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HENCE...SIGNIFICANTLY

MORE ZONAL (LESS AMPLIFIED) WITH THE UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN THAN

MOST ALL OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...GIVEN THE STRONG

AND PERSISTENT -NAO AND AFOREMENTIONED BLOCKING PATTERN IN

PLACE...A BLEND TOWARDS THE SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED SOLNS MAKE MORE

SENSE. FCST WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND...BUT WEIGHTED MORE TWDS THE

MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET SCENARIO. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

WINTER STORM REMAINS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COMING SAT

NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH MON IF

ECMWF IS TAKEN AS A PERFECT PROG.

BIGGEST CAVEAT TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT DESPITE GROWING MODEL

CONSENSUS FOR UPR LVL PATTERN DURING THE LTR SAT-MON

TIMEFRAME...THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY MUCH

UNCERTAIN (LATEST ENSEMBLE SPREADS REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE FOR

SFC LOW TRACK...A FACTOR WHICH CANNOT BE OVERSTATED). THE DEGREE

OF PHASING UPON REACHING THE COAST...AND (THUS) THE IMPACT ON THE

LLVL THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE CRITICAL. AS IT APPEARS NOW USING

THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE...PREDOMINANT WX TYPE EARLY SATURDAY

WOULD BE LGT RAIN OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...LGT SNOW OVER MOST OF

CENTRAL VA WITH A NARROW STRIP OF MIXED PCPN (RASN) IN BETWEEN.

COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER FOR LATER SAT NGT/SUN MRNG

AND ALL AREAS...EVEN THE TIDEWATER/HAMPTON ROADS AREAS INTO NE

NC...WL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE SFC

LOW EXITS AND BOMBS OFF THE MID-ATL COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF LLVL THICKNESSES (WHICH ARE ALSO CLOSE)

AND LIKELIHOOD OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT

OF THE LWR-MID 30S BOTH SAT/SUN OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST

REGION. MEANWHILE... LIKELY COLDER THAN MOS ON SUN WITH THE STRONG

CAA AND PSBL CONTINUED CLOUDINESS/WRAP AROUND PCPN BEHIND

DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW (AND TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY

SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST AS LOW LVL FLOW BACKS FROM NE TO N THEN

NNW LATER IN THE DAY).

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