rainstorm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Of course we do...but our job in this phase is to be probabilistic not deterministic...I.e. what's most likely to occur. Personally, even going through only to sat morning, I think the NAM and SREF is slowly starting to steer us to some middle ground between the more amplified EC and the far-less-so GFS..shifting the jet max a bit west of the GFS depiction and digging the upper trough just a bit more. Time will tell about the occurrence and timing of phasing...but that's a good sign right there. Track is going to be something that gets refined as we get closer. I think we'll likely see some mix issues out your way Saturday that go away with time late....again though, plenty of time to fix timing and refine. My hope is that our overrunning doesn't short circuit us again as it did to some extent last January. Plenty to consider and look for...and we'll have time to get to all of it. Take a deep breath folks....still quite a few runs to get through here! [/quot thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Chill... chill? i went out and purchased 10 boxes of table salt in preparation of the super storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 chill? i went out and purchased 10 boxes of table salt in preparation of the super storm. Well now, that's just insane. I haven't even purchased Christmas presents yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbfan Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well now, that's just insane. I haven't even purchased Christmas presents yet. good job with being dead on in your call for last week. what do you see for this area this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well now, that's just insane. I haven't even purchased Christmas presents yet. if by thursday its clear there will be no storm alot of people are getting a box of salt for christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Channel 13 said tonight that there's a chance of snow on Xmas and accumulation is "likely" and we need to stay tuned for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 ** We're in JI's big lull ** Just enough time to watch Christmas Vacation and be back for the 0z NAM. I can't imagine Jim Duncan telling Gene Cox, "well yeah the European Model is calling for 18 inches in Richmond on Christmas. Then Gene tells his little joke...."you mean Fifi?" Again, we're so lucky to have you guys here. So, how much for Fluvanna? good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Did any of yall see WTVR's 5pm weather. "Perfect Storm", "South of the Border", or "Fast & Furious" are the three scenarios theyre going with Its up on their website http://www.wtvr.com/weather/local/wtvr-7-day-forecast,0,5831705.story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 good job with being dead on in your call for last week. what do you see for this area this weekend? We're in a progressive pattern. 1-3 inches from the Hampton Roads to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We're in a progressive pattern. 1-3 inches from the Hampton Roads to DC. The ridging out west would argue otherwise. You can't be in a progressive pattern with a meridional flow like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ridging out west would argue otherwise. You can't be in a progressive pattern with a meridional flow like that... Want to make a bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 1-3 inches from DC to the Hampton Roads for Christmas to the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Want to make a bet? Sure. Someone in the state of Virginia measures more than 3" of snow between 00:01 12/25 and 23:59 12/27. http://store.tobaccolocker.com/servlet/-strse-8565/Padron-1964-Anniversary-Series/Detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm not excited at all. I have a hard time believing a big storm will take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 <br />I'm not excited at all. I have a hard time believing a big storm will take place.<br /> Define "big"? I think it will be more than 1-3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Define "big"? I think it will be more than 1-3"... 6"+ Too many model differences to be excited and recalling the fiasco of last weekend.....you have to go with the trend and that is surpressed sheared out/weaker systems....OTS. No way RIC gets the amount of snow per recent EURO. Climo doesn't support it and we've only had one storm over the last 113 years delivering over 12" at RIC during the month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 <br />6"+<br /><br />Too many model differences to be excited and recalling the fiasco of last weekend.....you have to go with the trend and that is surpressed sheared out/weaker systems....OTS. <br /><br />No way RIC gets the amount of snow per recent EURO. Climo doesn't support it and we've only had one storm over the last 113 years delivering over 12" at RIC during the month of December.<br /> I don't disagree with that. But, by the same token, I think McGuirk's 1-3" is too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't disagree with that. But, by the same token, I think McGuirk's 1-3" is too low. Too early to jump ship but all the 0z guidance shifted in favor of OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Too early to jump ship but all the 0z guidance shifted in favor of OTS. NOT true at all. GFS took MAJOR steps toward the Euro and looks much better than it did previously (despite the fact that it gives us no precip). GGEM sends the low off the coast but has nice features and bombs it out. UKMET is crap. Euro hasn't come in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NOT true at all. GFS took MAJOR steps toward the Euro and looks much better than it did previously (despite the fact that it gives us no precip). GGEM sends the low off the coast but has nice features and bombs it out. UKMET is crap. Euro hasn't come in yet. IIRC, the ECMWF was the first to pick up the OTS last weekend, no? If it continues creaming RIC tonight, then maybe I'll start getting excited, Jake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sharp cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NOT true at all. GFS took MAJOR steps toward the Euro and looks much better than it did previously (despite the fact that it gives us no precip). GGEM sends the low off the coast but has nice features and bombs it out. UKMET is crap. Euro hasn't come in yet. GFS took steps toward 12z Euro yes, but still equals OTS GGEM OTS and east of 12z run UKmet OTS and east of 12z run 0z Euro??? not in yet I know it doesnt mean anything this far out, but taken literally the models are all OTS but the Euro currently. Hoping its just a blip and shifts back tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro is coming in. Tombo is updating in the NYC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Euro is coming in. Tombo is updating in the NYC thread. Euro stands firm. Wow I was honestly not expecting that. So now it Euro bomb east coast HECS verse nothing from the other models. Hopefully the GFS trends continue and the other models shifting east were just blips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I need it just a little bit further east. Just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GOOD GOD!!! ORF GETS OBLITERATED THIS RUN!!! 0 line well out to sea due to the storm being so Fooking strong and closing off at 500 mb south of the region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I need it just a little bit further east. Just a little bit. Actually the position is looking GOOD! Arctic air will be in place. EURO SHOWS AN EPIC BLIZZARD FOR THE ENTIRE AREA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I guess this means I have to get excited now, Jake! You must've gone to bed....hard to believe a snow weenie would give up before a historic xmas snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GOOD GOD!!! ORF GETS OBLITERATED THIS RUN!!! 0 line well out to sea due to the storm being so Fooking strong and closing off at 500 mb south of the region! Doesn't look too far out to sea on the plymouth site. Looks way too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I guess this means I have to get excited now, Jake! You must've gone to bed....hard to believe a snow weenie would give up before a historic xmas snowstorm. ARE YOU CRAZY! I AM AS AWAKE AS EVER! BLIZZARD OF DEC. 2010 BABY!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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