Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread

[rainstorm]

So what does the 12z Euro show for Hampton Roads? Changeover?

we can still hope it moves a little further east.

[SEVAsNOwSTORM]

we can still hope it moves a little further east.

UKIE is east.

[D Ray Morton]

euro 144

[Inudaw]

Model break down.

GFS: Lost it .. no words can better describe it. GFS flattens the shortwave and gets eaten by the northern stream an only brings light snow to the region before it scoots out to sea.

GGEM: Sends the low further east than yesterday.. Light to moderate snow NC/Central Eastern Va.. Not nearly as impressive as yesterday.

UKMET: LOL Total reverse job from yesterday. 967 bomb off Va .. east of the Euro. Probably a great hit for the area.

EURO: Much like yesterdays run.. just absolutely goes insane though today. Blizzard for SC/NC/ in Va. Lots of snow for the coastal areas too.. but could have some precip issues... but fortunately seems to not get warm air into the region as much as it does further north along the coast because of the timing of the bomb.

[Portsmouth Weather]

I really like the position we are in at this point. All the models now show cold air firmly entrenched before any bomb. It would take possibly the extreme event depicted on the Euro to cause mixing issues for us. I would think the low bombing off the coast will likely not quite reach the strength shown on the Euro.

[rainstorm]

hopefully they can all average out and we get a real snow here. its been a very long time for a 4+ inch snow that started as snow and remained snow to the end.

[Inudaw]

HPC graphic..

I'll take this ...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg

[Midlo Snow Maker]

at the peak of the storm 7pm sunday va beach goes to +3 850 0c is at orf it is real tight ric is -4c so a brief mix may occur there but it wraps back in good and you will get nailed rainstorm per the euro

[Midlo Snow Maker]

HPC graphic..

I'll take this ...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg

man that is a sick run for va/ric classic snow storm track holy hell, 1.49" of precip per the euro so 15"- 20" blizzard conditions?

[rainstorm]

at the peak of the storm 7pm sunday va beach goes to +3 850 0c is at orf it is real tight ric is -4c so a brief mix may occur there but it wraps back in good and you will get nailed rainstorm per the euro

thats cool but im hoping usedtobe is right about this possibly moving faster than the euro shows because it has a tendency to hang back in the sw. 50 miles se i hope.

[WeSuck]

Dear God....

[Inudaw]

Alright now that the excitement over the euro is finally waning; let's step back a moment.

The key difference between the euro solution and the GFS solution is the handling of the stj feature.

Let's start with 48 hours out.

There are NO huge difference here at 48 hours overall things are looking about the same through 48 hours.

Euro is more amplified with the ridging out ahead of the shortwave going through the south west.

72 hours out.

By 72 hours out we can start to see how things start to differ.

The gfs by this time has already opened up the stj energy.. while the euro (lines) is still closed. The 500 mb ridging in the west its basically the same and the large scale pv features in the Canada along the east Coast are rather identical to this point.

We can also see how the euro is starting to lag behind the GFS by this point in time.

Now on to day 4.

Well if you can't see the difference now you might want to get your eyes checked. The GFS has totally lost the shortwave ..and has been absorbed/crushed by the northern stream. The euro on the other hand has the a distinct shortwave over the deep south still at this time.

Day 5.

Day 5 is just night and day apart by this time.

The GFS only dives the north stream into Pa this time.. while the EUro has dived the nothern stream into the shortwave that was in the deep south the day before. Hence the phase bomb the euro shows. This results in a neutrally titled trough depicted on the euro at day 5.

The gfs trough is still positively tilted and thus send the low faster out and out to sea.

So the main thing we have to keep track is .... the shortwave as it comes across the deep south in models. The second thing comes later.. and how far the northern stream digs down. GFS says.. Into the Ohio valley then swings to Pa. Euro says into the Tennessee Valley.

Day 6 is just to different to compare.

[DJnVa]

at the peak of the storm 7pm sunday va beach goes to +3 850 0c is at orf it is real tight ric is -4c so a brief mix may occur there but it wraps back in good and you will get nailed rainstorm per the euro

Yo gotta remember though..."nailed" down here is like 2.5 inches

Seriously...it looks good for now.

[gbfan]

wondering what this setup means for central va? east of ric?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

wondering what this setup means for central va? east of ric?

euro

[gbfan]

your the one with the snow making machine right? might not need it this weekend. those pics seem almost unreal.

[BMW550i]

Epic photo midlo. I can't believe i could go from a week at snowshoe (there right now) to a potential blizzard!!!

[Midlo Snow Maker]

snippets from AKQ

TABULAR STATE FORECAST FOR VIRGINIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

ROWS INCLUDE...
  DAILY PREDOMINANT DAYTIME WEATHER 6AM-6PM
  FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EARLY MORNING LOW/DAYTIME HIGH
        PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NIGHTTIME 6PM-6AM/DAYTIME 6AM-6PM
         - INDICATES TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
        MM INDICATES MISSING DATA


  FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST
  WED      THU      FRI      SAT      SUN      MON      TUE
  DEC 22   DEC 23   DEC 24   DEC 25   DEC 26   DEC 27   DEC 28

  RICHMOND
  PTCLDY   SUNNY    PTCLDY   SNOW     SNOW     PTCLDY   PTCLDY
  26/41    23/42    23/43    26/36    26/34    18/35    19/38
   10/10    10/00    00/10    10/50    50/50    10/10    10/10

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD DOMINATED BY POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

WINTER STORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.

STRONG -NAO CONTINUES TO PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN

GENERAL...TURN TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTION CONTINUES...WITH THE 00Z AND

NEW 12Z ECMWF RUNNING 12-24 HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THIS IS LIKELY

OWING IN SOME DEGREE TO INTERACTIONS WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPR

PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE)...AS WELL

AS WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING LOW. THE ECMWF FILLS

IN/WEAKENS THIS LATTER FEATURE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS

SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HENCE...SIGNIFICANTLY

MORE ZONAL (LESS AMPLIFIED) WITH THE UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN THAN

MOST ALL OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...GIVEN THE STRONG

AND PERSISTENT -NAO AND AFOREMENTIONED BLOCKING PATTERN IN

PLACE...A BLEND TOWARDS THE SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED SOLNS MAKE MORE

SENSE. LATEST FCST TAKES A GGEM/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH WOULD FOCUS

MORE NUISANCE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO

MIDDAY SAT WITH HIGHEST POPS COMING WITH BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE SAT

NGT/SUNDAY. ECMWF DATA...TAKEN LITERALLY...WOULD NECESSITATE

EXTENDING POPS INTO EARLY MONDAY. WL HOLD OFF WITH THIS FOR NOW

UNTIL GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS.

BIGGEST CAVEAT TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT DESPITE GROWING MODEL

CONSENSUS FOR UPR LVL PATTERN DURING THE LTR SAT-MON TIMEFRAME...THE

TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN (LATEST

ENSEMBLE SPREADS REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE FOR SFC LOW TRACK...A

FACTOR WHICH CANNOT BE OVERSTATED). THE DEGREE OF PHASING UPON

REACHING THE COAST...AND (THUS) THE IMPACT ON THE LLVL THERMAL

STRUCTURE WILL BE CRITICAL. AS IT APPEARS NOW USING THE

AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE...PREDOMINANT WX TYPE EARLY SATURDAY WOULD

BE LGT RAIN OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...LGT SNOW OVER MOST OF CENTRAL VA

WITH A NARROW STRIP OF MIXED PCPN (RASN) IN BETWEEN. COLDER AIR WILL

EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER FOR LATER SAT NGT/SUN MRNG AND ALL AREAS...EVEN

THE TIDEWATER/HAMPTON ROADS AREAS INTO NE NC...WL HAVE A CHANCE FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE SFC LOW EXITS AND BOMBS OFF THE

MID-ATL COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPS AGAIN SHUNTED DOWNWARD FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY N OF

PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK. BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF LLVL THICKNESSES

(WHICH ARE ALSO CLOSE) AND LIKELIHOOD OF EXTENSIVE

CLOUDS/PRECIP...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LWR-MID 30S SAT OVER

THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST REGION. MEANWHILE... LIKELY COLDER THAN MOS

ON SUN WITH THE STRONG CAA AND PSBL CONTINUED CLOUDINESS/WRAP AROUND

PCPN BEHIND DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME LEFT TO GET A BETTER EVALUATION OF THIS

SYSTEM...ASSESSING COMPARABLE ANALOGS (CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE LESS

VALUABLE IN THIS INSTANCE WITH GFS SOLN DISREGARDED FOR THIS

PACKAGE).GIVEN THE TIMING (LIKELY HAVING AN IMPACT DURING ONE OF THE

BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES OF THE HOLIDAY SEASON)...WILL CONTINUE TO

OUTLOOK THE WINTER WX THREAT IN THE HWO.

VAZ070-220430-

CHESTERFIELD-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS

356 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND

5 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY

SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO

15 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

.CHRISTMAS DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE

OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

EURO snowfall accums. puts 17" in ric 20" for emporia

[rainstorm]

does the 18z gfs give se va anything? looks bone dry.

[weathervswife]

AKQ Mets, does the Christmas holiday weekend affect your forecasts? I would think it would be more important that people are well prepared and not need it, than prepare for a 1-2" snowfall and get buried in the Euro A-bomb. Does your thought process change when preparing the forecast at this range for the holiday weekend.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

AKQ Mets, does the Christmas holiday weekend affect your forecasts? I would think it would be more important that people are well prepared and not need it, than prepare for a 1-2" snowfall and get buried in the Euro A-bomb. Does your thought process change when preparing the forecast at this range for the holiday weekend.

great question

[VBsurf]

does the 18z gfs give se va anything? looks bone dry.

thats right where we want it. first run that hasnt switched our surface winds http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KORF&model=gfs&time=2010122118&field=barb to E or even SE. Id DEFINETLY rather it there than say further northwest and with more precip (rain). Ill take my 1-2" and run

[weathervswife]

** We're in JI's big lull ** Just enough time to watch Christmas Vacation and be back for the 0z NAM.

[WhiteKEAN2004]

AKQ Mets, does the Christmas holiday weekend affect your forecasts? I would think it would be more important that people are well prepared and not need it, than prepare for a 1-2" snowfall and get buried in the Euro A-bomb. Does your thought process change when preparing the forecast at this range for the holiday weekend.

I can only answer this question for myself...I know there are others in the office that would answer this question differently (and they're welcome to chime in too). As I said in the AFD today, the timing of the snow is obviously high impact. To some that may mean to, as some in the media say, be first with the worst. In many ways, I don't envy the line they have to walk with the public this week. For me, the timing in situations like this turns up the pressure to be right, not to be fastest. To be sure, there is some value in hitting the meteorological half-court shot...nailing accums from day 5. It'll make you some fair-weather friends (sorry...had to ). and strictly from a social impacts prospective, that's great. Problem there is...with this job you have people in all sorts of high places making calls on your forecast (see the four...count em...FOUR state briefings on the docket for tomorrow alone!). As you can imagine, crying wolf from day 5 isn't something we can make a habit out of! The obvious, idealized goal is to strike that balance between societal impact and...actual honest-to-goodness science. In all likelihood, if things still look like this on Thursday at this time, you'll likely see some bigger wheels turn into motion. Until then, we use the product we've been instructed to use...the HWO...as our vehicle to relay the threat until we get closer. For the moment, that just seems to be the most reasonable and responsible way to handle it. Just my two cents...take them for whatever two cents is worth nowadays.

[weathervswife]

I can only answer this question for myself...I know there are others in the office that would answer this question differently (and they're welcome to chime in too). As I said in the AFD today, the timing of the snow is obviously high impact. To some that may mean to, as some in the media say, be first with the worst. In many ways, I don't envy the line they have to walk with the public this week. For me, the timing in situations like this turns up the pressure to be right, not to be fastest. To be sure, there is some value in hitting the meteorological half-court shot...nailing accums from day 5. It'll make you some fair-weather friends (sorry...had to ). and strictly from a social impacts prospective, that's great. Problem there is...with this job you have people in all sorts of high places making calls on your forecast (see the four...count em...FOUR state briefings on the docket for tomorrow alone!). As you can imagine, crying wolf from day 5 isn't something we can make a habit out of! The obvious, idealized goal is to strike that balance between societal impact and...actual honest-to-goodness science. In all likelihood, if things still look like this on Thursday at this time, you'll likely see some bigger wheels turn into motion. Until then, we use the product we've been instructed to use...the HWO...as our vehicle to relay the threat until we get closer. For the moment, that just seems to be the most reasonable and responsible way to handle it. Just my two cents...take them for whatever two cents is worth nowadays.

Thank you for your thoughts. Luckily, you're not at the point where you need to issue advisories or speculate on accumulations. At this point though, the mets in the media are being pressed to give their "opinions" on "how much". All they can do right now is split the difference between the models. I can't imagine Jim Duncan telling Gene Cox, "well yeah the European Model is calling for 18 inches in Richmond on Christmas. Then Gene tells his little joke...."you mean Fifi?" Again, we're so lucky to have you guys here. So, how much for Fluvanna?

[rainstorm]

I can only answer this question for myself...I know there are others in the office that would answer this question differently (and they're welcome to chime in too). As I said in the AFD today, the timing of the snow is obviously high impact. To some that may mean to, as some in the media say, be first with the worst. In many ways, I don't envy the line they have to walk with the public this week. For me, the timing in situations like this turns up the pressure to be right, not to be fastest. To be sure, there is some value in hitting the meteorological half-court shot...nailing accums from day 5. It'll make you some fair-weather friends (sorry...had to ). and strictly from a social impacts prospective, that's great. Problem there is...with this job you have people in all sorts of high places making calls on your forecast (see the four...count em...FOUR state briefings on the docket for tomorrow alone!). As you can imagine, crying wolf from day 5 isn't something we can make a habit out of! The obvious, idealized goal is to strike that balance between societal impact and...actual honest-to-goodness science. In all likelihood, if things still look like this on Thursday at this time, you'll likely see some bigger wheels turn into motion. Until then, we use the product we've been instructed to use...the HWO...as our vehicle to relay the threat until we get closer. For the moment, that just seems to be the most reasonable and responsible way to handle it. Just my two cents...take them for whatever two cents is worth nowadays.

you must have some idea what you think is most likely. euro and 15-20 inches, gfs and partly cloudy, or a blend?

[Coach McGuirk]

you must have some idea what you think is most likely. euro and 15-20 inches, gfs and partly cloudy, or a blend?

Chill...

[WeSuck]

Chill...

sounds like you are talking to your dog

[WhiteKEAN2004]

you must have some idea what you think is most likely. euro and 15-20 inches, gfs and partly cloudy, or a blend?

Of course we do...but our job in this phase is to be probabilistic not deterministic...I.e. what's most likely to occur. Personally, even going through only to sat morning, I think the NAM and SREF is slowly starting to steer us to some middle ground between the more amplified EC and the far-less-so GFS..shifting the jet max a bit west of the GFS depiction and digging the upper trough just a bit more. Time will tell about the occurrence and timing of phasing...but that's a good sign right there. Track is going to be something that gets refined as we get closer. I think we'll likely see some mix issues out your way Saturday that go away with time late....again though, plenty of time to fix timing and refine. My hope is that our overrunning doesn't short circuit us again as it did to some extent last January. Plenty to consider and look for...and we'll have time to get to all of it. Take a deep breath folks....still quite a few runs to get through here!