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Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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Nice Hit for E VA. If this were blackjack you'd have bet 1000 and gotten a blackjack on the Eastern Shore.

I'll gladly take 2-4 inches in N VA and hope to G-d east VA gets totally annihilated. 1"+ qpf PLUS plentiful cold air and estimated 15-18-1 snow to water ratios I'd sure call that a Home run.....

CoastalBecs you better get a MUCH bigger shovel - You're gonna need it...

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DT

*** MAJOR SNOWSTORM INCREASINGLY LIKELY for ALL OF CENTRAL & EASTERN VA XMAS DAY & NIGHT.. New Model data shows new SNOWFALL record for RIC for XMAS day LIKELY to be set.!!! *** POTENTIAL*** for 10"+ of snow for eastern VA -- .. that is EAST of I-95 into North Neck & mid Peninsula and Into Lower MD easte...rn shore-- W of I-95 4 to 8"... 6-10" in Northern VA and DCA
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By that he is essentially saying that it is likely RIC will see 6"+ out of this storm (considering the fact that the snowfall record is somewhere around 5-6").

Would be nice if there was a solid inch on the ground by 7am and with snow falling. That would mean that both defintions of a white christmas would be met.

Of course the ground definition was met last year with a 2 inch snowdepth at the 6:54am observation. However, the last year to feature measurable snows on Christmas day was 1993 when 0.1" fell later in the day.

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HM in other thread...

"Looks like 6-10" for DCA but 10-20" event E VA, DE, E MD, SE NJ."

:o

Tell Rainstorm to say March 1980 again LOL

dc 6-10? will be tough to snow here if thats the case. we will see.before i say march 1980 again how did DC get in march 1980?

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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

STRONG -NAO CONTINUES TO PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND

HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TIMING CHANGES TO THE POSSIBLE WINTER STORM

AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC RGN DURING THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. IN

GENERAL...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SLOWER TREND SHOWN YSDY...WITH

THE 00Z ECMWF BEING ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE

STRONG -NAO AND A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE THE SLOWER

SOLN MAKES SENSE. LATEST FCST TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM

(BUT WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY MORE TWDS THE LATEST SLOWER ECMWF SOLN)

WOULD FOCUS HIGHEST POPS SAT NGT/SUNDAY (RATHER THAN DURING THE

DAY SAT/CHRISTMAS DAY).

AS PREV SHIFTS HAVE NOTED...THE DETAILS REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN THIS

FAR OUT...I.E. TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... DEGREE OF PHASING

UPON REACHING THE COAST...AND (THUS) THE IMPACT ON THE LLVL

THERMAL STRUCTURE. EARLY ON...PREDOMINANT WX TYPE WOULD BE RAIN

OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...SNOW OVER MOST OF CNTRL VA WITH A NARROW

STRIP OF RA/SN POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN. COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY

TAKE OVER LATER SAT NGT/SUN MRNG AND ALL AREAS...EVEN METRO

NORFOLK AND NE NC HAVE DECENT SHOT AT SNOW AS THE SFC LOW EXITS AND

BOMBS OFF THE MID- ATL COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

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I am still getting the hang of interpreting models. Just wanted to double check somewhere how close my interpretation was. HR is always the rain/snow battleground so I really don't know what to expect at this point

Oh you have got that right! ORF sucks and usually is either heavy snow or heavy rain as we are always usually within 50 miles of the rain/snow line. As of right now, ORF is golden. Although a 50 miles shift east is always helpful for any potential trends.

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6z GFS has moved up to a double where 0z was a single. I wish I lived about 60 miles east where it's a homerun, but lots of time for qpf to increase as we get closer. It's already happening and remember the 3 days leading up to Dec 19th last year? Every run gave us another couple inches.

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