Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread

[RIC Airport]

You are a liar Anthony. Liar liar liar

Actually Jake, the pattern was different back then.

[RIC Airport]

Its been a very cold December so far and it's apparent that the cold will persist through the end of the month. RIC is currently sitting at 32.8°F for the month which is a departure of -9.2.

Top 10 Coldest Decembers at Richmond (since 1897)

1, 30.1°F (1917)

2. 31.3°F (1989)

3. 31.6°F (1935)

4. 32.4°F (1963)

5. 33.0°F (2000) 32.8°F (2010) as of 12/17

6. 33.4°F (1958)

7. 34.1°F (1910)

8. 34.6°F (1960)

9. 34.8°F (1955)

10. 35.5°F (1969) and (1930)

If the month ended right now, December 2010 would past December 2000 and rank as the 5th coldest December on record.

Regarding snowfall....RIC currently sits at 3.7" officially. In order to rank within the top 10 snowiest Decembers, this month would need an additional 4.5". With the pattern continuing to be prime for snowfall opportunities, it quite possible the month end on a historical note.

Top 10 Snowiest Decembers at RIC (since 1897)

1. 17.2" (1908)

2. 15.3" (1917)

3. 12.5" (1958)

4. 12.3" (1935)

5. 12.2" (1966)

6. 11.7" (1989)

7. 9.9" (1973)

8. 9.1" (1916)

9. 8.5" (1904)

10. 8.2" (1945)

[Martin]

1in. I like it!

Tonight: Snow and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Northeast wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible.

Sunday: A chance of snow and sleet before 9am, then a chance of rain and sleet between 9am and noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 40. North wind between 11 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Winter Weather Advisories to our southeast. I imagine we get some soon

[Martin]

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND WITH THIS LATEST

SYSTEM...WHICH ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW WITH THE STRENGTH AND

TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...

PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN HAVING THE BULK OF THE MSTR

CONFINED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF EXTREME SERN VA/NERN NC. PER THE

LATEST WV/IR SATELLITE TRENDS...LIKE THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF PORTRAYAL

OF A MORE AMPLIFIED BAROCLINIC LEAF (MORE NW PROTRUDING MID LVL

TROWAL INTO CEN VA) LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN.

PRECIP TYPE WILL AGAIN BE A FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT...AS WILL THE

IMPACT ON ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS. GFS LVLL THERMAL

(THICKNESS) ANALYSIS SHOW MAINLY RAIN FROM SRN BERTIE CO (NC)

TO SRN VA BCH AND POINTS S. CLOSER INSPECTION OF GFS BUFR

SOUNDINGS SHOW MULTIPLE WARM LAYERS OVER THESE AREAS...I.E. SFC-

BASED AS WELL AS WITH THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE (850-800 MB). AS YOU

HEAD FARTHER N/NW...BOTH WARM LAYERS SHRINK...TO A POINT WHERE WE

EXPECT MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET OR SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE

VA E OF FRANKLIN...WITH MAINLY A WET SNOW EVENT FROM FRANKLIN-

HAMPTON-MELFA AND AREAS N/NW.

COMPLICATING MATTERS HOWEVER IS NOT MUCH FARTHER N/NW INTO THE

COLDER AIR...PRECIP INTENSITY (MSTR DEPTH) DECREASE RATHER SHARPLY.

THEREFORE...ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF

MEASURABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION (ON THE ORDER OF 1-2")...CENTERED ON

EITHER SIDE OF A FKN-LFI-MFV LINE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO

NOT HOIST ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. PARTLY DUE TO THE

UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LLVL THERMAL STRATIFICATION (AS WELL AS SFC

TEMPS)...BUT ALSO WOULD PREFER TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO REFINE THE

HIGHEST RISK AREA SINCE IT WOULD APPEAR 1-2+ INCH ACCUMULATIONS

WILL FALL IN A FAIRLY NARROW STRIP. COMPARED TO THE LAST

EVENT...EXPECT LOWER SNOW-WATER RATIOS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10-1)

GIVEN THE HIGHER WATER CONTENT THIS GO AROUND...WITH TOTAL LIQUID

QPF AROUND A QUARTER INCH +/- A TENTH OR SO.

[RIC Airport]

Radar blossoming down south and quite a few returns coming into VA now.

[rainstorm]

looks good tonight

[VAB1]

I had bagged this thing yesterday but I have to admit, it's looking kind of interesting now. Already completely overcast and 29-30 degrees? Radar blossoming to the south? That feels right.

[DMADKAT]

I had bagged this thing yesterday but I have to admit, it's looking kind of interesting now. Already completely overcast and 29-30 degrees? Radar blossoming to the south? That feels right.

Welcome to Norfolk ,Virginia. snow don't always move in, it developes in! REMEMBER LAST MONDAY, I WAS LAUGHING MY BUTT OFF!

[RIC Airport]

Welcome to Norfolk ,Virginia. snow don't always move in, it developes in! REMEMBER LAST MONDAY, I WAS LAUGHING MY BUTT OFF!

Your location is not in your profile. You are able to add it so we all know where you're posting from. Where are you located in Hampton Roads?

[DMADKAT]

Your location is not in your profile. You are able to add it so we all know where you're posting from. Where are you located in Hampton Roads?

I'M SORRY ,MY SON (COASTALBECS) MUST HAVE FORGOT TO PUT IT IN . WE LIVE IN CHESAPEAKE VA. JUST ABOUT 5 MILES FROM DOWNTOWN NORFOLK. SNOW IS ALMOST ALWAYS A SURPRISE AROUND HERE.

[SEVAsNOwSTORM]

Finally found you guys and gals! I was wonder what happened to easternweather... I was having some serious withdraws. Glad to see you haven't changed Coach.

[SEVAsNOwSTORM]

Looks like the majority of the precip stays confined to Southside Hamption Roads. I'm thinking 1-2 inches of mostly snow. I'll take it!

[D-Money]

[D-Money]

Looks like the majority of the precip stays confined to Southside Hamption Roads. I'm thinking 1-2 inches of mostly snow. I'll take it!

what do you think the surface temps will be?

[D-Money]

Going to say..

NE NC: 0

Va Beach: 0

Norfolk: 0

Chesapeake/Portsmouth: 0-T

Places west and North of these locations that see pecip: T-0.5

Nice east wind here at the beach around 39 deg

[SEVAsNOwSTORM]

what do you think the surface temps will be?

Looks like they will stay around freezing most of the time maybe a degree or two above. Most of the precip will fall during the overnight and early morning hours. The precip might hang on during the day Sunday, have to wait to see...

[D-Money]

GFS LVLL THERMAL

(THICKNESS) ANALYSIS SHOW MAINLY RAIN FROM SRN BERTIE CO (NC)

TO SRN VA BCH AND POINTS S. CLOSER INSPECTION OF GFS BUFR

SOUNDINGS SHOW MULTIPLE WARM LAYERS OVER THESE AREAS...I.E. SFC-

BASED AS WELL AS WITH THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE (850-800 MB). AS YOU

HEAD FARTHER N/NW...BOTH WARM LAYERS SHRINK...TO A POINT WHERE WE

EXPECT MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET OR SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE

VA E OF FRANKLIN...WITH MAINLY A WET SNOW EVENT FROM FRANKLIN-

HAMPTON-MELFA AND AREAS N/NW

[WeSuck]

Going to be such a tight gradient here. Will be interesting to watch.

[VAB1]

For metro southside Hampton Roads it's looking like a cold rain with a few sleet pellets mixed in until sometime toward sunrise when it should change over. Might be able to squeeze out an inch between then and mid-morning Sunday before precip moves out. There may be some 2-3 inch totals somewhere slightly north and west of there (upper Newport News/York Co. down through Suffolk/Franklin) where it will be mostly snow to all snow if enough precip can get in there.

[weathervswife]

[WeSuck]

Lol after this week's fiasco with model run inconsistency, I am playing Mega Millions and have a better chance of winning that than this happening!

[RIC Airport]

Meanwhile, it's looking a little bit more interesting for C VA/RIC metro. Granted not a perfect situation, but 12z GFS suggests there could be accumulating snows 24th into the 25th. Taken the run verbatim, I would rather be in DCA or N and NE of RIC. But still, even if it's just a 1-3"...2-4" slop event, would be historic as we don't have very many documented Christmas Days with snow on the ground and snow falling at 7am.

[weathervswife]

Hee Hee!! Mt Chipotle resurfacing at the Barracks Road Shopping Center in Charlottesville from the 3" blizzard.

[RIC Airport]

Meanwhile, it's looking a little bit more interesting for C VA/RIC metro. Granted not a perfect situation, but 12z GFS suggests there could be accumulating snows 24th into the 25th. Taken the run verbatim, I would rather be in DCA or N and NE of RIC. But still, even if it's just a 1-3"...2-4" slop event, it would be historic as we don't have very many documented Christmas Days with snow on the ground and snow falling at 7am.

I get the feeling the current GFS has to be wrong. NO WAY we have a Christmas Eve/Day snowstorm!

[Kevin Druff]

Meanwhile, it's looking a little bit more interesting for C VA/RIC metro. Granted not a perfect situation, but 12z GFS suggests there could be accumulating snows 24th into the 25th. Taken the run verbatim, I would rather be in DCA or N and NE of RIC. But still, even if it's just a 1-3"...2-4" slop event, would be historic as we don't have very many documented Christmas Days with snow on the ground and snow falling at 7am.

Taken verbatim, I think there would be a very brief changeover to the south and SSW of town. I think to the west and north west, the 850 0* line approaches during a period of moderate to heavy precid and diabatic cooling, IMO, would help keep us in mostly snow.

But you're right. A couple, 3, 4 inches of snow on Christmas would be magical.

[rainstorm]

I get the feeling the current GFS has to be wrong. NO WAY we have a Christmas Eve/Day snowstorm!

its already too far north for alot of us. any further north and there wont be a snowstorm for most of va. have to hope for a se trend.

[jlewis1111]

I see DT lurking in here i wish he would give us a update with the xmas storm here or his blog at least

[RIC Airport]

Taken verbatim, I think there would be a very brief changeover to the south and SSW of town. I think to the west and north west, the 850 0* line approaches during a period of moderate to heavy precid and diabatic cooling, IMO, would help keep us in mostly snow.

But you're right. A couple, 3, 4 inches of snow on Christmas would be magical.

Total 12z GFS QPF for RIC through the 26th is 1.83" with 1.54" of that snow. So, it would be more than a 1-4" event if IF IF the GFS is right, but it isn't.

[Kevin Druff]

Total 12z GFS QPF for RIC through the 26th is 1.83" with 1.54" of that snow. So, it would be more than a 1-4" event if IF IF the GFS is right, but it isn't.

Of course it's not, but we can dream, no? I think out here it would be more snow than over at the airport... say, 1.65 or 1.7" of it as snow. Even if it were only 10:1 ratios, I'd be shoveling for days.

[RIC Airport]

Total 12z GFS QPF for RIC through the 26th is 1.83" with 1.54" of that snow. So, it would be more than a 1-4" event if IF IF the GFS is right, but it isn't.

When we have to rely on re-development off Hatteras, we are too far south to get 12"+.....unless it just sits off the coast for a day like January 2000 did for RDU.