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Richmond Metro/ Hampton roads obs/disco winter thread

Midlo Snow Maker

By Midlo Snow Maker,
in Mid Atlantic

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RIC Airport

RIC Airport

Posted
Posted

Interesting read

Quote

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE

FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY PER THE RECENT (00/06Z) MODEL RUNS...

WE ARE PROBABLY NO CLOSER AT A CONSENSUS MODEL-WISE THAN WE WERE

12-24 HRS AGO. THE 00Z ECMWF TOOK A NOTICEABLE JOG TO THE E

(FARTHER OFFSHORE)...AND IS ACTUALLY MORE IN LINE NOW WITH THE NAM

AND THE SREF. THE GFS (BOTH OP AND ENSEMBLE MEAN RUNS) MEANWHILE

ARE NOT AS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW TRACK AS THEY ARE

FARTHER WEST WITH THE MOISTURE SWATH/PRECIP SHIELD. CLOSER

INSPECTION OF THE GFS SHOWS QUICKER ARRIVAL OF UPR LVL SPEED MAX

INTO THE LWR OH VLY...THUS FASTER UPR LVL AMPLIFICATION (NEG TILT

WITH THE UPR TROUGH AXIS)...LEADING TO (THEN) FASTER CYCGLOGENESIS.

THE OTHER MODELS MEANWHILE DO NOT EXHIBIT AS MUCH OF A CLASSIC

BAROCLINIC LEAF ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SFC LOW (NOT AS BROAD WITH

THE MID LVL TROWAL OR LLVL CCB).

THE UPSHOT IS HIGHER POPS/QPF FARTHER W ACROSS THE CWA PER THE

GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE SREF...WHILE THE BEST PRECIP

CHANCES/AMOUNTS ARE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST PER THE NAM AND

ECMWF. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY (STILL SOME 36+ HOURS AWAY FROM THE

ONSET OF PRECIP)... DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS

FCST. MEANWHILE...SHOULD IT COME INTO PLAY...PRECIP TYPE WOULD

CONTINUE TO BE MOST PROBLEMATIC E OF I-95...GIVEN WARM LAYERS NEAR

THE SFC (INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW) AND ALOFT (WITH THE WAA). SUCH A

SCENARIO WOULD FIT THE PATTERN CLIMO-WISE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED

LOW TRACK...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SFC HIGH/LLVL RIDGE TO

OUR N AS THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM UPR LVL CONFLUENCE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN

IS DISPLACED E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES (I.E. FARTHER N AND E TO

SUPPORT SUSTAINABLE COLD AIR/LOW WET BULB TEMPS DURING THE EARLY

STAGES OF THIS EVENT).

STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY (LOW FCST CONFIDENCE) WITH THIS

SYSTEM...IN TERMS OF THE SPATIAL RESOLUTION OF BOTH QPF AND

P-TYPE...TO HOIST 4TH PERIOD WATCHES AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE

PROJECTED (ENSEMBLE) TRACK PER THE MODELS...A MORE WINTRY (SNOW

AND OR SLEET) P-TYPE WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG AND W OF THE I-95

CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT...WITH THE FROZEN P-TYPES PUSHING E DURING THE

DAY ON SUN AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING

SFC LOW. AGAIN THOUGH...THE MAIN ISSUE IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL

SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS IS HOW FAR N-NW-W INTO THE COLDER LOWER LAYERS

WILL THE MOISTURE EXTEND. THE GFS AND SREF SUGGEST A WIDER BAND OF

WINTRY PRECIP INLAND...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW THE PRECIP

CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST (MAINLY RAIN) AND THUS IMPLYING A

NARROW AT BEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS.

See the boded.....that is key with this morning's forecast package.

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VAB1

VAB1

Posted
Posted

Excruciating. If we just had a little bit of high pressure to the north and/or west this would be a nice little hit. Maybe the clipper that is now progged to go south of us mid-week will jog a little further north and we can get something out of that. Hate to waste this pattern like this.

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Geoff

Geoff

Posted
Posted

DTs morning update:

DEC 19 BIG SNOW FOR EASTERN & CENTRAL VA ????

There will be a full update around 10:30 AM this morning after the new models begin to come. This also includes new forecasts snow maps with this upcoming event for eastern and Central Virginia. However we do have some new data to talk about …. especially regarding the 6z Models.

Both the 6z NAM and 6z GFS bring the band of precipitation moving through eastern half and especially southeastern 1/3 of Virginia with this system Saturday night and Sunday. There is a band of 0.25 to 0.50″ on Both of these 6z Models which does reach RIC and as far west as SOUTH HILL on I-85. But once you go North and west of that Line ….the models have almost no significant precipitation and it’s been that way now for the last few runs. The main issue is going to be a which area out to the south and east of Richmond is going to see the significant snowfall . The models are showing precipitation amounts between 1/2 inch 1 inch which if it is all snow would see between 6 and 12 inches. This means areas of such as Williamsburg Petersburg Emporia Stonycreek Wakefield Suffolk and Newport News could see the a major snowfall. This heavy snow band is likely to extend into the Virginia eastern shore area and the southern portions of the lower Maryland Eastern shore.

As it stands now… Areas of such as Charlottesville farmville Fredericksburg Washington, DC Baltimore and Philadelphia would see the little if any accumulating snow.

All this being said it would only take a small shift in the track of Low pressure area to the west to drive the heavy snow band in the Richmond and a moderate snow band into Charlottesville Farmville Fredericksburg and DC . This could occur because the Low actully tracks further to the North OR the Low itslef forsm closer to the SC Coast.

For right now… Richmond 3″ Petersburg 5″ Emporia 6″ Williamsburg 6″ Norfolk … IF …..IF it does NOT mix COULD SEE 9″ ( But it might mox with sleet or rain )… Gloucester 6″ Ashland 2″ Salisbury 4″ and Tappahanock 4″

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jlewis1111

jlewis1111

Posted
Posted

MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW...

STEMMING FROM ITS CRESTING THE WRN COASTAL UPPER RIDGE. LATEST

MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL

OVER THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY... LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS

INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST

SOLUTIONS VERSUS EARLIER MODEL SUITES FROM THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE

SOME WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO CURRENT MEAN ENSEMBLE POSITIONS AND

DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRENGTH AND DIGGING OF

TROF AS IT TRACKS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND SUBSEQUENT

INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF

COAST STATES ON SATURDAY WILL LARGELY DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE

COAST THE SFC LOW TRACKS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY

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VAB1

VAB1

Posted
Posted

Does anyone know the key differences and simiilarities between this event and the Dec 26, 2004 surprise? Like what the hell happened overnight that caused forecast amounts to go from 1-3 to 8-12?

The differences are we have no cold high this time and the track of the low was much better than this thing. For any kind of coastal low to bring snow to SE Virginia you pretty much can't get by without some kind of cold high somewhere in the midwest and/or northeast.

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WeSuck

WeSuck

Posted
Posted

The differences are we have no cold high this time and the track of the low was much better than this thing. For any kind of coastal low to bring snow to SE Virginia you pretty much can't get by without some kind of cold high somewhere in the midwest and/or northeast.

The 12z GFS still brings most QPF to ORF and the 850 mb line never makes it north of the NC VA boarder. Keep this in mind. The closer you are to the rain snow line the heavier the snow. Also, in this setup with no cold source high to the notrh we want a track OTS which just clips us so we don't get that strong flow off the water.

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VAB1

VAB1

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS still brings most QPF to ORF and the 850 mb line never makes it north of the NC VA boarder. Keep this in mind. The closer you are to the rain snow line the heavier the snow. Also, in this setup with no cold source high to the notrh we want a track OTS which just clips us so we don't get that strong flow off the water.

850s look marginally OK but that low level warmth is going to kill it. We're looking at 34-36 and a cold, cold rain with maybe a couple of sleet pellets in there. Maybe some spots west of the bay (upper NN/WMBG, Suffolk, etc.) could be cold enough for snow but little or no moisture is getting over there. I hope I'm wrong but I've seen this many times.

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SeVa

SeVa

Posted
Posted

I am going to hold onto hope until I see the precip shield on radar actually missing us...

Dec. 26, 2004:

We were In MD for Christmas. I checked the weather the night before and see 1-3 for tidewater. No big deal let's drive back. We reach Williamsburg and see a dusting. Ok, no big deal but three more miles and then BAM!! 10 or so inches...took 5hrs to make it from Fort Eustis to 664. Models will give probabilities of solutions. The best "model" is really quite simple, and all you need is a window to interpret it.

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MidlothianWX

MidlothianWX

Posted
Posted

maybe brief mix to start in extreme sw va but 0c line never gets much past the nc/va border and heads south during the passage... 2m temps look to get a bit above 32 before precip from SE VA up toward DC area but drop back below into the evening tuesday

Looks like the Euro has increased our chances for snow early next week.

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