D-Money Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't need a map for the weekend. No snow for everyone. Just to make sure here, so you're saying ots? No precip all? Or does "everyone" mean hampton roads and you're saying rain only for HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just to make sure here, so you're saying ots? No precip all? Or does "everyone" mean hampton roads and you're saying rain only for HR We might see a little rain/snow but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 what models are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We might see a little rain/snow but nothing significant. what are you smoking tonight i mean really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 what are you smoking tonight i mean really I'm sorry, do you live here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Slater= 0-8+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We might see a little rain/snow but nothing significant. What makes you prefer a track further out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What makes you prefer a track further out to sea? I'm god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No crap vodka please, like Aristocrat. This Pinnacle Vodka is pretty good for a cheap price. Seems like you already have plenty of vodka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 00z GFS taken verbatim gives RIC metro 3-6" and HR 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Seems like you already have plenty of vodka. Haha, nice shot. Anyway, I'm sorry for being accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm god. Getting reaallll coachy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 00z GFS taken verbatim gives RIC metro 3-6" and HR 5-8". awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Haha, nice shot. Anyway, I'm sorry for being accurate. Just messin. I was just curious as to what made you take that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just messin. I was just curious as to what made you take that route. Iving in SEVA is a start. If anything can go wrong, it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Iving in SEVA is a start. If anything can go wrong, it will. again...you live close to the ocean. if you want snowy winters, you are going to have to relocate. I always get a kick out of the bitching by SE Va folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 again...you live close to the ocean. if you want snowy winters, you are going to have to relocate. I always get a kick out of the bitching by SE Va folks... What is this about? It snows here all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll post a map tomorrow if things look good. If I had to guess right now, 1-3 for Richmond to Williamsburg. Coastals are tricky so it's really hard to nail down a total this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 i have a feeling its going to disappoint us all too. seems to happen to frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like the Euro crapped out on us. Time to cling to the GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bal\DC 3 times........SE MA, CT, RI once, NYC once, NNE upslope, M WA and E NY twice....ORH CO once, ME once and now looks to be two. Me.....0. Unreal. Even RIC got a decent event today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Many over in the SNE thread are talking about how they have never seen such massive shifts in model data from run to run. I for one can agree - the Euro just shifted the low placement by hundreds of miles in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yesterday's departure from average at RIC was -18 which puts us at -9.1 degrees below the monthly average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Jim Lawrence is filling in this morning on WVEC. Miss that guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 New AKQ snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 New AKQ snow map Grrrr.... bulls eye 2 days out. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No way it get's that far west. 6Z GFS looks just like 00Z for SE VA.However, the EURO is so far ots verbatim we even get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No way it get's that far west According to the latest Euro no.. :x Nam and gfs (granted that map is basically gfs verbatim) Precip does get that far west. No analysis.. just straight model output wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I mean the heaviest snow seems to show up further SE on the GFS and NAM. At least that what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Interesting read SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST...AND UNFORTUNATELY PER THE RECENT (00/06Z) MODEL RUNS... WE ARE PROBABLY NO CLOSER AT A CONSENSUS MODEL-WISE THAN WE WERE 12-24 HRS AGO. THE 00Z ECMWF TOOK A NOTICEABLE JOG TO THE E (FARTHER OFFSHORE)...AND IS ACTUALLY MORE IN LINE NOW WITH THE NAM AND THE SREF. THE GFS (BOTH OP AND ENSEMBLE MEAN RUNS) MEANWHILE ARE NOT AS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW TRACK AS THEY ARE FARTHER WEST WITH THE MOISTURE SWATH/PRECIP SHIELD. CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE GFS SHOWS QUICKER ARRIVAL OF UPR LVL SPEED MAX INTO THE LWR OH VLY...THUS FASTER UPR LVL AMPLIFICATION (NEG TILT WITH THE UPR TROUGH AXIS)...LEADING TO (THEN) FASTER CYCGLOGENESIS. THE OTHER MODELS MEANWHILE DO NOT EXHIBIT AS MUCH OF A CLASSIC BAROCLINIC LEAF ON THE N/NW SIDE OF THE SFC LOW (NOT AS BROAD WITH THE MID LVL TROWAL OR LLVL CCB). THE UPSHOT IS HIGHER POPS/QPF FARTHER W ACROSS THE CWA PER THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE SREF...WHILE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS ARE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST PER THE NAM AND ECMWF. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY (STILL SOME 36+ HOURS AWAY FROM THE ONSET OF PRECIP)... DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. MEANWHILE...SHOULD IT COME INTO PLAY...PRECIP TYPE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE MOST PROBLEMATIC E OF I-95...GIVEN WARM LAYERS NEAR THE SFC (INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW) AND ALOFT (WITH THE WAA). SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD FIT THE PATTERN CLIMO-WISE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LOW TRACK...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SFC HIGH/LLVL RIDGE TO OUR N AS THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM UPR LVL CONFLUENCE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IS DISPLACED E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES (I.E. FARTHER N AND E TO SUPPORT SUSTAINABLE COLD AIR/LOW WET BULB TEMPS DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THIS EVENT). STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY (LOW FCST CONFIDENCE) WITH THIS SYSTEM...IN TERMS OF THE SPATIAL RESOLUTION OF BOTH QPF AND P-TYPE...TO HOIST 4TH PERIOD WATCHES AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE PROJECTED (ENSEMBLE) TRACK PER THE MODELS...A MORE WINTRY (SNOW AND OR SLEET) P-TYPE WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG AND W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR SAT NIGHT...WITH THE FROZEN P-TYPES PUSHING E DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. AGAIN THOUGH...THE MAIN ISSUE IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS IS HOW FAR N-NW-W INTO THE COLDER LOWER LAYERS WILL THE MOISTURE EXTEND. THE GFS AND SREF SUGGEST A WIDER BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP INLAND...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW THE PRECIP CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST (MAINLY RAIN) AND THUS IMPLYING A NARROW AT BEST BAND OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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