Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z nam says Winter storm watch needed colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 is sunday looking better for se va? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah rainstorm...if anyone is going to get any thing from saturday night sunday it is SE Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yeah rainstorm...if anyone is going to get any thing from saturday night sunday it is SE Va DT - have your snow accum thoughts changed at all for tomorrow's storm since last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT - have your snow accum thoughts changed at all for tomorrow's storm since last night? doubtful off of one run of the nam, if all the 12z models come in wetter then yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Newbie question here. I thought it conventional wisdom that clippers lose their moisture once they come over the apps. What is different about this system that leads us to believe that it will still be nice and moist by the time it reaches us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Newbie question here. I thought it conventional wisdom that clippers lose their moisture once they come over the apps. What is different about this system that leads us to believe that it will still be nice and moist by the time it reaches us? this is more of an over running event (warm air aloft) then a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Thanks! I am starting to get pumped for this bad boy. Hopefully those of us on the South side don't get sleet shafted during the height of the storm as is usually the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 im not too worried. if anything i think it may move a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 If the 12z NAM is correct it's going to be quite a thumping around midday tomorrow with good moisture coming in and 850 mb temps below -3. Ground already frozen. Great set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 hopefully it moves in earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wheeler has a new blog up: http://blogs.wavy.com/2010/12/15/what-a-winter/ Both have their differences and will be tricky forecasts. Tomorrow’s system is actually a very subtle system. But I’ve learned over the years that sometimes it’s the smaller/weaker features that produce the significant snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Officially 16°F at RIC this morning. FCI got down to 12°F while OFP hit 12°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Thanks! I am starting to get pumped for this bad boy. Hopefully those of us on the South side don't get sleet shafted during the height of the storm as is usually the case 12z NAM has some precip type problems for ORF. Immediately after the heaviest of the snow comes through, things start looking iffy (hour 34, which is 21Z). The entire column up to 800mb hovers ±0.5°C from the melting point... which would be a nasty mix of all precip types. PHF on the other hand is all snow. I think we will be alright, just something to keep an eye on during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z NAM has some precip type problems for ORF. Immediately after the heaviest of the snow comes through, things start looking iffy (hour 34, which is 21Z). The entire column up to 800mb hovers ±0.5°C from the melting point... which would be a nasty mix of all precip types. PHF on the other hand is all snow. I think we will be alright, just something to keep an eye on during the day. Which model has been colder? GFS or NAM? If we stay all or mostly snow this could be huge from RIC to ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z NAM has some precip type problems for ORF. Immediately after the heaviest of the snow comes through, things start looking iffy (hour 34, which is 21Z). The entire column up to 800mb hovers ±0.5°C from the melting point... which would be a nasty mix of all precip types. PHF on the other hand is all snow. I think we will be alright, just something to keep an eye on during the day. It's pretty much over by then, though, isn't it? What does it look like from 10a-3p or so. That looks like the height of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 gfs is looking better for sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 hopefully the WSW gets extended east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's pretty much over by then, though, isn't it? What does it look like from 10a-3p or so. That looks like the height of the precip. So, basically snow when everyone is heading to work, then a mix of all the fun stuff when people are starting to head home? Awesome. The timing is going to be big. Schools are probably already close to pulling the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1051 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010 ...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. VAZ048-049-060>063-065>071-079>083-087>089-160130- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.101216T0900Z-101217T0000Z/ FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER- MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD- HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT- GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND... ASHLAND...SOUTH HILL...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND... LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD 1051 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATION...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * ICE AMOUNTS...A TRACE TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * TIMING: LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 So, basically snow when everyone is heading to work, then a mix of all the fun stuff when people are starting to head home? Awesome. The timing is going to be big. Schools are probably already close to pulling the plug. lol Yeah and I am supposed to have 2 finals tomorrow....wonder what ODU is going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12 z GFS so, so, so painful for southside Hampton Roads on the weekend system but only a slight shift eastward would set up the kind of snow on snow event we haven't seen since 79-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p36_102l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Winter Storm Watch impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12 z GFS so, so, so painful for southside Hampton Roads on the weekend system but only a slight shift eastward would set up the kind of snow on snow event we haven't seen since 79-80. I am not worried. It is close enough temperature wise to know it will only to to change 25-50 miles SE. Tomorrow system looks JUICY on GFS. The weekend system will still flip flop but if it does move SE a few miles WATCH OUT!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12 z GFS so, so, so painful for southside Hampton Roads on the weekend system but only a slight shift eastward would set up the kind of snow on snow event we haven't seen since 79-80. looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 lol Yeah and I am supposed to have 2 finals tomorrow....wonder what ODU is going to do. And it's one of those situations where, once people are at school/work, leaving early doesn't help because it's already nasty outside. Coming in 2 hours late doesn't do anything either. It makes more sense to just bag everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mspegasus Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yea me too! I work there... and already plan NOT to come in tomorrow.. If i hear anything I will let you know. lol Yeah and I am supposed to have 2 finals tomorrow....wonder what ODU is going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nice area of 5" all the way to the coast http://weather.unisy...m_cum_snow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.