Coach McGuirk Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Their model was generally on the mark for getting snow on Monday even if it was low on the amounts. Their new in house model seems to be the most accurate of the 3 stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 HR met summary WAVY: 1-2 inches. Model shows precip entering at 7am with a brief changeover around 3pm WTKR: Some snow showers. No accumulations mentioned or specified WVEC: 1/2in near coast with up to 2in for inland areas. Model shows precip entering region around 10/11am with a brief changeover around 2pm I was txting with Evan (WVEC) earlier and he wasn't too impressed with the system. Ill get his thoughts again tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 When was the last time Norfolk had more snow than DC? Now that's a tough question. I was just going to post that i'm 250 miles north of you and haven't even got a dusting yet so far this season... just on and off flurries that past few weeks. and then this happens the past hour: Small little snow band comes through up here. Finally on the board with 0.25" this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Nice set of model runs for the Thursday system... and yea 3 inches could be the low side for this viewing area. :x Local 6 or more inches in some areas in southern/central va... Late to the party.. just got back from work.. Weekend threat now... favoring areas to the south again... (3rd time this year/?? O-o) Question is how much and track... XD. My focus is still on the Thursday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Record cold air like this just doesn't go away in two days. DT is best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I was just going to post that i'm 250 miles north of you and haven't even got a dusting yet so far this season... just on and off flurries that past few weeks. and then this happens the past hour: Small little snow band comes through up here. Finally on the board with 0.25" this winter! Great pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 :x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 WHOA! .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OBVIOUSLY MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WAS WITH PCPN FORECAST IN ASSN WITH MIDWEST UPR LOW AND ITS SFC REFLECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THU BEFORE PUSHING TO A POSITION OFF THE N NC COAST BY 00Z FRI. HV CONTINUED TO TREND POPS UPWARD...WITH LKLY POP NOW ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THU MORNING/ERY AFTN. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY...USING NAM/SREF BLEND FOR TIMING...APPEARS THAT TOP-DOWN MOISTENING SHOULD BRING ABOUT LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN ZONES BY 08-11Z THU MORNING...SPREADING INTO RIC METRO BY ABOUT SUNRISE. CONSIDERING GOOD AMOUNT OF LIFT AND IN-SITU COLD AIR (AND STRONG EVAPOATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL)...WL LKLY SEE QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DURING MORNING HOURS OVER WEST-CENTRAL ZONES BEFORE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL PUSHES EAST BY AFTN. P-TYPE TRANSITION FOR THE AFTN WILL BE KEY TO WHAT IS A COMPLICATED FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...THINKING IS THAT BY THE TIME FEEDER-SEEDER PROCESSES DROP OFF...LLVL MOISTURE WL ALREADY BE DIMINISHING. AS A RESULT...COULD WELL SEE A PERIOD OF LINGERING SLEET/LGT FREEZING DRIZZLE THU NGT OVR CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH CHC OR SLGT CHC OF SLEET/PLAIN RAIN OVR SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING WRT ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM GENERAL 3-4 ACROSS MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL VA ZONES SOUTH OF I-64... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS WITH LIGHTER QPF OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND WITH AREAS THAT WKL LKLY SEE P-TYPE TRANSITION ISSUES (MAINLY COASTAL ZONES). :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I guess its an "Ok" map if you ignore it west of Wakefield. Other than that.... its not that great.... ><; The format of it is just bad..... in terms of the western areas of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I guess its an "Ok" map if you ignore it west of Wakefield. Other than that.... its not that great.... ><; The format of it is just bad..... in terms of the western areas of it... I am loving this map from AKQ!! Winter Storm Watches out for the western part of the state. I imagine we get at least an advisory by evening. That 3.5+ band looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Should I be concerned about the weekend storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 RNK went winter storm watch-- first of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 :x All Snow baby! It needs to hold right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I am loving this map from AKQ!! Winter Storm Watches out for the western part of the state. I imagine we get at least an advisory by evening. That 3.5+ band looks nice I think this storm is going to surprise a lot of people. I just don't get it but people are afraid to forecast snow around here. WHY? I would be going crazy over this lol. The only thing Jon Cash was good for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think this storm is going to surprise a lot of people. I just don't get it but people are afraid to forecast snow around here. WHY? I would be going crazy over this lol. The only thing Jon Cash was good for. Because we get screwed over so many times Quite frankly I think AKQ is being really bold with that map. TV mets obviously downplay anything because they get blamed when something goes wrong. I am cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Because we get screwed over so many times Quite frankly I think AKQ is being really bold with that map. TV mets obviously downplay anything because they get blamed when something goes wrong. I am cautiously optimistic. lol but on a day like 2 days ago we get 1-2 inches without snow even being mentioned in the forecast. and now a set-up with a lot moisture and cold air to work with they call for 1-2 inches! I mean come on! I think the NWS is going to win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 lol but on a day like 2 days ago we get 1-2 inches without snow even being mentioned in the forecast. and now a set-up with a lot moisture and cold air to work with they call for 1-2 inches! I mean come on! I think the NWS is going to win here. Shhh! Don't jinx it. Haha. Anybody know the precip amount needed for a Winter Storm Watch/Warning instead of an advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Shhh! Don't jinx it. Haha. Anybody know the precip amount needed for a Winter Storm Watch/Warning instead of an advisory? haha I am sure it is like 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 looks like we had the 150 mile shift se. SWEET!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 nam is alot wetter at 24 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 said this -- this map-- 3 days ago I am loving this map from AKQ!! Winter Storm Watches out for the western part of the state. I imagine we get at least an advisory by evening. That 3.5+ band looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 haha I am sure it is like 4 inches. cant be Coach said 1 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't think so. I had saveed his map for that storm and I don't recall Newport News with 12". I will try to find it, but with easteruswx gone, I'm not sure if I have it elsewhere. Now you are chaning what you said. You said I ALWAYS bust in EVERY snow forecast for se VA. You did not that I have busted sometimes. You said always. Have I busted ??? sometimes. sure ..we all have. But always? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Record cold air like this just doesn't go away in two days. DT is best case scenario. which the NEW Nam actually EXCEEDS my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z nam says Winter storm watch needed colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Slater going with little to no accumulation on Thursday. don slater is a idiot... Inept... a true parrot the last time he had an original thoiught Nixon was POTUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 if we get good ratios this could be 6" to lollipop 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 said this -- this map-- 3 days ago yea you have been all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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