Inudaw Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So.... How much more runs in a row do models have to keep showing the back end changing to snow to belive it?? Nam really wants to back end load the precip. That's a lot of precip after the 850's crash for ric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So.... How much more runs in a row do models have to keep showing the back end changing to snow to belive it?? Nam really wants to back end load the precip. That's a lot of precip after the 850's crash for ric. It has been there for twelve runs of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is a decent upper 500 mb pattern here before truncation on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice, I got an hours worth of unexpected flurries/show showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Could the 18Z NAM be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Could the 18Z NAM be right? Are you being serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Could the 18Z NAM be right? im riding the old eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey its in the nam range... I think it could easily be right. I see how DT is so downplaying the nam and gfs. I hope it comes back to haunt his ass lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Midlo, you're feeling this right? It's unmistakable. This may be our Jan. 2000 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey its in the nam range... I think it could easily be right. I see how DT is so downplaying the nam and gfs. I hope it comes back to haunt his ass lol I've been his antagonist in most of those threads (David Tuck) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Are you being serious? Hey, I cheered you on about a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Midlo, you're feeling this right? It's unmistakable. This may be our Jan. 2000 again. feeling the upper yes, between me and you looks like a sweet spot MDLS NOW COMING INTO MR OF AN AGREEMENT WRT TRACK/STRENGTH OF SFC LO PRES THAT TRACKS NE ALG THE SC/NC CST TUE NGT...THEN CONTS TO THE NE THROUGH WED NGT. ENUF DP LYRD WRMG XPCTD FOR PRIMARILY A RA EVENT FM (LT) TUE NGT THROUGH WED MRNG. NAM IS SLOER IN MVG STM TO THE NE. HV BLENDED THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SPD WRT TO THE STM THROUGH THE RGN. THERE IS CONCERN OVR SOME MIXED PTYPE WELL INLAND (TOO ERY TO MENTION FRZG RA...BUT WL NOT RULE THAT OUT OVR VLYS IN PORTIONS OF THE ERN PDMNT). TEMPS OVR THAT AREA OF FA WL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO/ABV THE M30S BY WED. ELSW...XPCTG RDGS TO REACH THE L/M40S (L/M50S PSBL INVOF CSTL NE NC/XTRM SE VA). THERE MAY BE A BRK IN PCPN CVRG WED AFTN (ESP ERN PORTION OF FA)...B4... STRNG UPR LVL LO PRES WL HV TRACKED NE THROUGH CNTRL NC AND SE VA/NE NC (BY WED EVE)...THEN TO THE NE (TO ARND CAPE COD) BY THU MRNG. COOLING ALOFT...IN ADDTN TO PTNTL PD OF ENHANCED MLVL UVM ON NW SIDE OF TRACK OF THE UPR LVL LO SHOULD BE ENUF FOR RA TO MIX W/CHG TO S ACRS INTR SXNS OF FA (AND BY THE END OF THE PCPN)...ALL THE WAY TO THE CST (ERY THU MRNG). ANY ACCUMS WL DEPEND ON INTENSITY AND WHETHER LLVL TEMPS COOL SUFFICIENTLY/QUIK ENUF. RIGHT NOW...ANTICIPATING WET SN ACCUMS WOULD BE LMTD TO GRASS/OTR COLDER SFCS...W/ RDS RMNG ABV FRZG (AND WET). COULD SEE CPL IN ACCUMS...ESP IN A CORRIDOR FM AVC-RIC- XSA...SHOULD THE SN BCM MOD/HVY FOR AT LEAST A CPL/FEW HR PD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey, I cheered you on about a month ago. This is totally a different set-up. I just don't see enough cold air in place for a significant snow storm for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is totally a different set-up. I just don't see enough cold air in place for a significant snow storm for VA. Not even in CHO? What are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BTW, do you guys have FB accounts? I'd love to see your posts on there. I'm David Tuck (in Charlottesville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 GO COACH cbs 6 ric By 9 PM Wednesday, the metro should be seeing a wet snow that could be heavy at times. This snow will be due to the upper-level low that will be very intense. It wouldn't surprise me to hear a rumble of thunder or two as it is snowing, especially in areas to our east. The snow will be falling into surface temps that are still a few degrees above freezing, so although I think we could see a couple of inches of accumulation, it will occur on grassy surfaces, rooftops, etc. Roads might still be slick for the Thursday AM commute as the roads will be wet and temps will likely fall below freezing by sunrise. Here's a look at the way things should look at 9 PM Wed, followed by the temps at 7 AM Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not even in CHO? What are you looking at? 850 C line comes really close. I'm just using my common sense judgment that if anything can go wrong, it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 850 C line comes really close. I'm just using my common sense judgment that if anything can go wrong, it will. No map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BTW, do you guys have FB accounts? I'd love to see your posts on there. I'm David Tuck (in Charlottesville) He wont let me comment on his Page (DT). I called him out and he didnt like it to much. I so hope RIC gets 3 inches to make him look like a fool. He is a jackass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No map? I'm looking at all rain. Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 lets all cheer each other on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 good stuff ric i was thinking about this stuff too. i wish you would do a thread just on these type of posts you ,they are always interesting if you take out the first and last day of the month (damn timing) our highest would have been 48 do you know what the coldest hi temp for a winter is here $10.00 we hit 70 degrees between hourly obs on feb 28th FTL Midlo, the coldest daily high temperature at Richmond is 11°F set on two seperate days, February 11th and 12th 1899. The daytime high temperature only reached 12°F on January 19, 1994, January 9, 1970 and February 13, 1899. I've been thinking about doing a thread on climate, but I just never have gotten around to doing. One day, I will though. BTW, I'm back to RIC Airport, now. I echo midlo, interesting post even for someone who lives north of Richmond. Thanks for popping in, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like you'll be witnessing some snow Anthony. GFS likes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definitely better chances for a change over to snow north and west of I-95 as far as Central Va goes. I don't think the city itself will get much... 90 percent rain. >> <<;;; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Midlo, the coldest daily high temperature at Richmond is 11°F set on two seperate days, February 11th and 12th 1899. The daytime high temperature only reached 12°F on January 19, 1994, January 9, 1970 and February 13, 1899. I've been thinking about doing a thread on climate, but I just never have gotten around to doing. One day, I will though. BTW, I'm back to RIC Airport, now. Thanks for popping in, Wes. Welcome back! Looks like you'll be witnessing some snow Anthony. GFS likes us. He is in the Middle East currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am at my breaking point here with DT - his Facebook posts are beginning to get out of hand. Why is he so hell-bent on proving his point about the type of precip RIC will receive during this storm? He made a bold call for ALL rain and now he is going to have to stick with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Midlo, the coldest daily high temperature at Richmond is 11°F set on two seperate days, February 11th and 12th 1899. The daytime high temperature only reached 12°F on January 19, 1994, January 9, 1970 and February 13, 1899. I've been thinking about doing a thread on climate, but I just never have gotten around to doing. One day, I will though. BTW, I'm back to RIC Airport, now. Thanks for popping in, Wes. maybe i worded it wrong what is the lowest hi end hi for the winter season. like so far it is 67 this winter, have we ever had a winter with no hi over 60/65 does that make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 surface temps is the main promblem at RIC, could see a lot of snow if the temps can cool down below 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 maybe i worded it wrong what is the lowest hi end hi for the winter season. like so far it is 67 this winter, have we ever had a winter with no hi over 60/65 does that make sense Ok.... And the answer to that is 65°F....meaning that the warmest it got was only 65°F during the DJF period. Here are the top 3 lowest maximum winter daytime high temperatures. 65°F (1940-41, 1930-31) 67°F (2002-03) 68°F (1968-69, 1963-64, 1962-63, 1907-08, 1904-05, 1903-04, 1901-02, 1900-01) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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