Martin Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If RIC hits 11°F, it will be the coldest since January 2009. Last winter's lowest temperature was 12 set on January 31st and February 1, 2010. The official low temperature this morning at RIC did in fact hit 11°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 21 here now akq going for 14 i am calling for 11 here ric had a hi of 27 here coldest so far this season right on the nose i hit 11 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 06 gf looks great to me. keep going east. too much rain here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 6z gfs I woke up this morning expecting the GFS to move well inland as well for my rainstorm, and I get this?? I'm not so sure the NAM isn't heading that way as well. This thing has slowed down by 24 hours in the last 24 hours. Back to the drawing board. Edit: Virtually every ensemble member is a hit for central Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I woke up this morning expecting the GFS to move well inland as well for my rainstorm, and I get this?? I'm not so sure the NAM isn't heading that way as well. This thing has slowed down by 24 hours in the last 24 hours. Back to the drawing board. Edit: Virtually every ensemble member is a hit for central Va damn that is funny and a few have this bulls eye over ric lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 right on the nose i hit 11 here 9.8 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
288West Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Lowest I got is 8 degrees even, must have been right after I went to bed, when I woke up around 6 it was 13, guess the high cloud layer that moved in kept it from getting lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbscott126 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe laughable is too strong of a word. My point was that I don't think he should release any sort of map until Sunday night or Monday morning at the earliest, but that is just my opinion I guess. Also he has no mention of the possibility for back-end snows in area B which is sort of misleading. I don't think DT's first call is necessarily laughable. It's about the only plausible call anyone can make given the models right now. As for his Facebook page, that's definitely laughable. Can you say cult of personality? A bunch of weenies sycophantically praising their omnipotent, charismatic leader while squelching all dissent. It's amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Cool picture, I like how Hatteras Light has snow plastered on the side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 24 hours and the picture isn't to much clearer. Still saying rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 24 hours and the picture isn't to much clearer. Still saying rain. Do you still believe the ECMWF shows the most probable outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ECMWF is a almost perfect compromise between the GGEM and the GFS. However Euro is warmer compared to the GFS... almost inline with the Canadian in that regard despite the further East track in comparison tot he GGEM. If someone gave me just the surface track (on euro)... and told me this system was for Later portion of January.. I'd normally say.. Easy forecast. A huge front end snow ... followed by mixing and change over issues at the height of the storm.. before changing back to snow before said and done. (For cities around I-95). This system just misses the arctic air that just came through.. and is just out in front of the next high.. that just does not get here before the moisture is done for this area. Result is a really well develop east coast low with warmer than average temperature profile compared to climatology. (I like the DT Feb 2-3rd threat.).. GFS looks great for it .. despite it being squished int he gulf.. upper levels just look great for it.. and has a MASSIVE cold high for that event...suppression is the only concern I have with it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ECMWF is a almost perfect compromise between the GGEM and the GFS. However Euro is warmer compared to the GFS... almost inline with the Canadian in that regard despite the further East track in comparison tot he GGEM... Thanks for the detailed explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 WOW @ Euro in the long range. Its really honking that February 2nd storm. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 WOW @ Euro in the long range. Its really honking that February 2nd storm. :snowman: huge honk 1008 low SE sc. snow all the way to dc and it is cold -7c but as usual it looks good "on paper" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 huge honk 1008 low SE sc. snow all the way to dc and it is cold -7c but as usual it looks good "on paper" Don't care. I think I'll hop on the early train for the February second storm. It's got the cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't care. I think I'll hop on the early train for the February second storm. It's got the cold! Cold+massive(-AO)= OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Cold+massive(-AO)= OTS Don't care! I like the looks of the threat on both the GFS and the Euro at this range. ;p PNA is still positive too.. :x 240 hour Euro image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Feb 2-3= the Inudaw Storm? (DT doesn't get his name on this storm!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Feb 2-3= the Inudaw Storm? (DT doesn't get his name on this storm!) Nah I don't get to name it because I was not the first to pin point it out. ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nah I don't get to name it because I was not the first to pin point it out. ;p I don't think I'd want my name on it. The nao blocking is missing so it has to do it with the pna pattern which makes it easier for something to go wrong. HEck the models are having trouble with the evolution of a storm inside of 84 hrs. Last year I was into trying to identify possible periods for a big snowstorm. This year, ick. Quite a few ensembles do like that time frame but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't think I'd want my name on it. The nao blocking is missing so it has to do it with the pna pattern which makes it easier for something to go wrong. HEck the models are having trouble with the evolution of a storm inside of 84 hrs. Last year I was into trying to identify possible periods for a big snowstorm. This year, ick. Quite a few ensembles do like that time frame but..... Yea you said it. Its still has to be driven by the PNA pattern. But overall its a colder set up than the upcoming storm. The storm in the February 2nd time frame has a bit better NAO set up than this one...but only marginally. The setup just screams a colder storm in general than this current one.. which is why I'd like to take my chances with this colder set up than what we are going to have to deal with for the "rain' storm were about to get. Euro for The 25th storm. Compared to the 2nd.. Better Blocking near Greenland. Hudson bay vortex further south. Everything just pressed further south compared to this threat. The 25th storm... does not have as much if any blocking compared to the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't care! I like the looks of the threat on both the GFS and the Euro at this range. ;p PNA is still positive too.. :x 240 hour Euro image. wont high pressure offshore be a bit of a problem?the way everyone was talking i expected a huge high over the great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea at that precise time a high is moving out. That high was centered to our north @ hour 216. There is another high though @ hour 240 in the plains coming in as well. Can't tell if that high banana's ovwer to the one moving off the coast @ that time. Needless to say the high is still in a better location (not ideal) than the current system. The new high that is the plains @ hour 240 is closer as well compared to the set up were about to have. But the high miving out @ hour 240 is a legit concern given the image at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea at that precise time a high is moving out. That high was centered to our north @ hour 216. There is another high though @ hour 240 in the plains coming in as well. Can't tell if that high banana's ovwer to the one moving off the coast @ that time. Needless to say the high is still in a better location (not ideal) than the current system. The new high that is the plains @ hour 240 is closer as well compared to the set up were about to have. But the high miving out @ hour 240 is a legit concern given the image at that time. its ashame we keep missing on the cold air. perhaps things wil improve as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't think I'd want my name on it. The nao blocking is missing so it has to do it with the pna pattern which makes it easier for something to go wrong. HEck the models are having trouble with the evolution of a storm inside of 84 hrs. Last year I was into trying to identify possible periods for a big snowstorm. This year, ick. Quite a few ensembles do like that time frame but..... Wes makes an appearance in the RIC thread! Unfortunately, my emotions went from this: To this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We are so damn close to getting a 4" storm in the West End but not a single model slides the snow 10 miles east. It's so close that one would generally say it could happen, but all the models show an east solution as being weaker so we get less snow. Though it makes sense, it's still a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just expect rain. Nothing looks right for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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